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Apples to apples, fighters to submarines: comparative analysis of conventional capability-based signalling capacity through technologically weighted state arsenal indexing

Lee Habib Roberts
Lee Habib Roberts
   | 11 mar 2024
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Article Category: Original Study
Pubblicato online: 11 mar 2024
Pagine: 85 - 103
Ricevuto: 11 ott 2021
Accettato: 22 set 2023
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jms-2023-0007
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© 2023 Lee Habib Roberts, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Fig. 1

GFI Scores for the U.S., China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, 2023. Source : Global Firepower Index.
GFI Scores for the U.S., China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, 2023. Source : Global Firepower Index.

Fig. 2

CFPI Scores for the U.S., China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, 2023. Underlying quantity source: International Institute for Strategic Studies.
CFPI Scores for the U.S., China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, 2023. Underlying quantity source: International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Fig. 3

Technological Composition of U.S., China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran Conventional Arsenals (Excluding AFVs),* 2023. Underlying quantity source: International Institute for Strategic Studies. *All five states have large, mostly ageing inventories of armoured fighting vehicles (AFVs) – armoured, armed vehicles other than main battle tanks – that would inject misleading noise into this depiction, which counts but does not weight systems. Figure 4 includes AFVs.
Technological Composition of U.S., China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran Conventional Arsenals (Excluding AFVs),* 2023. Underlying quantity source: International Institute for Strategic Studies. *All five states have large, mostly ageing inventories of armoured fighting vehicles (AFVs) – armoured, armed vehicles other than main battle tanks – that would inject misleading noise into this depiction, which counts but does not weight systems. Figure 4 includes AFVs.

Fig. 4

Technological Composition of U.S., China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran Conventional Arsenals by Sources of CFPI Score, 2023. Underlying quantity source: International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Technological Composition of U.S., China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran Conventional Arsenals by Sources of CFPI Score, 2023. Underlying quantity source: International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Fig. 5

CFPI Scores for Extra-Regional Projection Platforms* of the U.S., China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, 2023. Underlying quantity source: International Institute for Strategic Studies. *”Extra-regional projection platforms” includes the set of systems in the CFPI excluding all land systems, air defence systems, and shortrange or coastal naval platforms (corvettes, missile boats, non-nuclear-powered tactical submarines and anti-ship missiles). See list in Table 10.
CFPI Scores for Extra-Regional Projection Platforms* of the U.S., China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, 2023. Underlying quantity source: International Institute for Strategic Studies. *”Extra-regional projection platforms” includes the set of systems in the CFPI excluding all land systems, air defence systems, and shortrange or coastal naval platforms (corvettes, missile boats, non-nuclear-powered tactical submarines and anti-ship missiles). See list in Table 10.

Russian Multirole Fighter CFPI Score, 2023

Platform Quantity t G r CFPI
MiG-29SM 15 2 3 32 1,440
MiG-31BM 107 2 3 32 10,272
Su-27/B/C 48 1 1 32 1,536
Su-27ML/SM/SM3 71 2 3 32 6,816
Su30M2/MKK/MKI/SM 122 3 4 32 15,616
Su-35/BM/S 99 3 4 32 12,672
Uam 48,352

Chinese Multirole Fighter CFPI Score, 2023

Platform Quantity t G r CFPI
J-10A/S 313 2 3 32 30,048
J-10B/C 275 3 4 32 35,200
J-11/B/BS 297 2 3 32 28,512
J-16 250 3 4 32 32,000
Su-30M2/MKK/MKI/SM 97 3 4 32 12,416
Su-35/BM/S 24 3 4 32 3,072
U am 141,248

WEG-CFPI Technological Tier Conversion and Coefficient Weighting

WEG Tier CFPI Tier Descriptor (2005-pres.) Descriptor (1990-2004) G-value Adjustments (additions)
1(+)* 4 Cutting-edge N/A 6 System introduction establishes new generation; long-range missile systems of WEG tier 1
1 3 Advanced Cutting-edge 4 Long-range missile systems of WEG tier 2
2 2 Competitive Advanced 3 Long-range missile systems of WEG tier 3; short-range missile systems of WEG tier 1; wheeled armored fighting vehicles of WEG tier 1; towed anti-aircraft systems of WEG tier 1
3 1 Ageing Competitive 1 Long-range missile systems of WEG tier 4; short-range missile systems of WEG tier 2; wheeled armored fighting vehicles of WEG tier 2; towed anti-aircraft systems of WEG tier 2
4 1 Ageing Ageing 1 Short-range missile systems of WEG tier 3; wheeled armored fighting vehicles of WEG tier 3; towed anti-aircraft systems of WEG tier 3
4(-)* 0 Obsolete Obsolete 0 Short-range missile systems of WEG tier 4; wheeled armored fighting vehicles of WEG tier 4; towed anti-aircraft systems of WEG tier 4; systems of WEG tier 4 operated in a quantity less than 1% of their lifetime production run

Comparison of Conventional Firepower Potential Indexing Scores, U.S., China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, 2023.

System Type† CFPI Score
United States China Russia North Korea Iran
Air Superiority Fighter 41,040 36,744 3,264 7,776 3,840
Multirole Fighter 236,800 141,248 48,352 0 3,104
Ground Attack Aircraft 30,816 26,304 57,216 2,736 2,088
Air Defence Missile System* 86,040 131,472 142,320 8,880 12,144
Air Domain Subtotal 394,696 335,768 251,152 19,392 21,176
Main Battle Tank* 58,840 97,600 42,000 **42,000 10,760
Armoured Fighting Vehicle* 336,676 132,680 56,640 4,824 5,380
Self-Propelled Cannon Artillery* 4,992 17,660 4,436 8,600 584
Towed Cannon Artillery* 5,985 800 2,090 2,150 1,840
Rocket Artillery* 5,715 10,500 3,852 9,435 828
Rotary Wing Attack* 63,040 19,072 13,488 0 800
Multirole Rotary Wing* 33,736 6,756 2,884 1,144 640
Air Defence Gun System* 0 1,446 210 2,750 572
Surface-to-Surface Missile* 5,136 27,000 12,000 2,664 11,520
Land Domain Subtotal 514,120 313,514 137,600 73,567 32,924
Aircraft Carrier (Nuclear-powered) 103,680 0 0 0 0
Aircraft Carrier (Non-nuclear-powered) 28,188 6,804 972 0 0
Helicopter Carrier 3,888 ***3,888 0 0 0
Ship-Based Rotary Wing* 20,610 1,068 858 0 78
Ship-Based Fixed Wing 122,912 7,680 3,360 0 0
Shore-Based Maritime Fixed Wing* 11,328 5,160 1,728 0 72
Cruiser 28,350 12,600 2,250 0 0
Destroyer 67,200 45,300 3,300 0 0
Frigate 12,320 17,220 6,720 280 0
Corvette* 0 12,000 12,000 0 1,140
Missile Boat/Fast Attack Craft* 360 4,416 0 984 1,800
Tactical Submarine(Nuclear-powered) 48,600 6,300 13,500 0 0
Tactical Submarine (Non-nuclear-powered)* 0 9,360 2,400 3,600 960
Shore-based Anti-ship Missile* 0 17,310 6,240 540 1,620
Naval Domain Subtotal 447,436 149,106 53,328 5,404 5,670
Total 2023 CFPI Score 1,356,252 798,388 442,080 98,363 59,770

Weapon System Role Values

Domain Role Index System Index Munition Normal Yield Ratio Versatility r-Value
Release Engagement
Air Air Superiority Fighter F-16A (USA) AIM-120 6 2 2 24
Multirole Fighter F-16 C (Blk40+) (USA) GBU-12 8 2 2 32
Ground Attack Aircraft A-IOC(USA) GBU-12 12 2 1 24
Air Defence (Missile) MIM-104C (USA) PAC-2 24 1 1 24
Land Main Battle Tank MIA2SEP(USA) M830A1 2 2 2 8
Armored Fighting Vehicle ?2A3 (USA) M792 1 2 2 4
Self-Propelled Cannon Artillery M109A6 (USA) M483A1 DPICM 2 1 1 2
Towed Cannon Artillery M119A1 (USA) M915 DPICM 1 1 1 1
Rocket Artillery M270A1 (USA) M26A2 DPICM 3 1 1 3
Rotary Wing Attack AH-64A (USA) AGM-114N 4 2 2 16
Multirole Armed Rotary Wing MH-6OA (USA) 7.62 X 51mm NATO 1 2 2 4
Air Defence (Gun) ZSU-23-4 (RUS) 23xl52B BZT 1 1 1 1
Surface-to-Surface Missile DF-I6(PRC) DF-16 Conventional 24 1 1 24
Naval Aircraft Carrier (Nuclear-powered) Nimitz-Class (USA) AGM-l54Cvia AV-8B 320 3 3 2,880
Aircraft Carrier (Non-nuclear-powered) America-Class (USA) AGM-l54Cvia AV-8B 108 3 3 972
Helicopter Carrier Canberra-Class (AUS) AGM-114B via MH-6OR 12 3 3 108
Ship-Based Armed Rotary Wing MH-6OS (USA) AGM-114B 3 2 1 6
Ship-Based Armed Fixed Wing AV-8B(USA) AGM-154C 8 2 2 32
Ground-Based Armed Maritime Fixed Wing P-8A (USA) Mk-46 Mod 5 12 2 1
Cruiser Ticonderoga-Class (USA) RGM-109E 75 2 3 450
Destroyer Arleigh Burke (fit. II) (USA) RGM-109E 50 2 3 300
Frigate Grigorovich (RUS) P-800 35 2 2 140
Corvette Type O56A (PRC) YJ-83K 15 2 2 60
Missile Boat/Fast AttackCraft Type 022 (PRC) YJ-83K 12 2 1 24
Tactical Submarine (Nuclear-powered) Los Angeles-Class (fit. Ill) (USA) RGM-109E 50 2 3 300
Tactical Submarine (Non-nuclear-powered) Kilo-Class (Improved) (RUS) 53-65M 15 2 2 60
Ground-Based Anti-Ship Missile YJ-100(PRC) YJ-100 30 1 1 30

Comparison of Air-focused CFPI Scores, Russia and China, 2023

CFPI Score
System Type Russia China
Air Superiority Fighter (Uai) 3,264 36,744
Multirole Fighter (Uam) 48,352 141,248
Ground Attack Aircraft (Uag) 57,216 26,304
Air Defence Missile System (Uad) 142,320 131,472
Total (Ua) 251,152 335,768

CFPI Release and Engagement Versatility Rubric

Value Release Versatility Engagement Versatility
3 Index system releases systems of release versatility 2 that in turn release the index munition, giving the index system multiple levels of release articulation and adaptiveness to target behaviour Index system is ordinarily intended to engage systems in multiple domains and is ordinarily configured to engage those systems purpose-built to target the index system
2 Index system can manoeuvre leading up to and during index munition release allowing a larger window of adaptation to target behaviour Index system is ordinarily intended to engage systems in multiple domains or is ordinarily configured to engage those systems purpose-built to target the index system
1 Index system must be motionless to release the index munition; the index system cannot make dynamic adaptations to target behaviour immediately leading up to or upon release of the index munition Index system is ordinarily intended to engage systems in only one domain and is not ordinarily configured to engage those systems purpose-built to target the index system

Russian Multirole Fighters, 2023

Platform Quantity
MiG-29SM 15
MiG-31BM 107
Su-27/B/C 48
Su-27ML/SM/SM3 71
Su30M2/MKK/MKI/SM 122
Su-35/BM/S 99

Multirole Fighters by CFPI Tier

Name Tier Name Tier
Adir 4 JAS 39C/D 2
Barak 2 JAS 39E 3
CF-18AM/BM 2 JF-17/A/B (Block 1/2) 2
Ching Kuo 2 JF-17A/B (Block 3) 3
EF-2000 2 KF-16C/D 2
EF-2000 FGR4/T3 3 MiG-29SM 2
F/A-18 A/B 2 MiG-29M/M2/ME 3
F/A-18 C/D 3 MiG-31BM 2
F-15E/I/S 2 Mirage 2000-5/5F 2
F-15K 3 Mirage 2000C/D/E 1
F-15SA 3 Mirage 2000H/I 3
F-16C/D Block 25/30/32 1 Mirage F1/E 1
F-16C/D Block 40/42/50/52/+ 2 Ra’am 3
F-16V 3 Rafale B F3-R/C F3-R 3
F-35/A/I 4 Rafale/B/C/DH/DM/EH/EM (F2) 2
F-4D/E 1 Saegheh 2
F-4E 2020 2 Su-22 1
FA-50 2 Su-22M4 1
FC-1 2 Su-27/B/C 1
FC-20 2 Su-27ML/SK/SM/SM3 2
F-CK-1A/B 2 Su-30/K 2
F-CK-1C/D 3 Su-30M2/MKK/MKI/SM 3
Gripen C/D 2 Su-35/BM/S 3
J-10A/S 2 Su-7 0
J-10B/C 3 Sufa 2
J-11/B/BS 2 Tejas 3
J-16 3 Terminator 2
J-6 1 Typhoon 2
JAS 39A/B 1 Typhoon FGR4/T3 3

Chinese Multirole Fighters, 2023

Platform Quantity
J-10A/S 313
J-10B/C 275
J-11/B/BS 297
J-16 250
Su-30M2/MKK/MKI/SM 97
Su-35/BM/S 24
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