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Beyond surface correlations: Reference behavior mediates the disruptiveness-citation relationship

Alex J. Yang

Alex J. Yang

School of Information Management, Nanjing UniversityNanjing, China
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Yang, Alex J.
, 
Fanming Wang

Fanming Wang

School of Information Management, Nanjing UniversityNanjing, China
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Wang, Fanming
, 
Yujie Shi

Yujie Shi

School of Information Management, Nanjing UniversityNanjing, China
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Shi, Yujie
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Yiqin Zhang

Yiqin Zhang

School of Information Management, Nanjing UniversityNanjing, China
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Zhang, Yiqin
, 
Hao Wang

Hao Wang

School of Information Management, Nanjing UniversityNanjing, China
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Wang, Hao
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Sanhong Deng

Sanhong Deng

School of Information Management, Nanjing UniversityNanjing, China
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Deng, Sanhong
  
28 mag 2025
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Categoria dell'articolo: Research Papers
Pubblicato online: 28 mag 2025
Pagine: 7 - 31
Ricevuto: 09 feb 2025
Accettato: 24 apr 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jdis-2025-0029
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© 2025 Alex J. Yang et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1.

Quantifying the 5-year CD index.
Quantifying the 5-year CD index.

Figure 2.

Basic yearly split-sample Poisson regression coefficients of the CD index on citation counts from 1950 to 2016. Error bars depict the upper and lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals based on robust standard errors. Dark-red coloring indicates significant positive coefficients (p < 0.05), and light-red coloring indicates non-significant positive coefficients. Dark-green coloring indicates significant negative coefficients (p < 0.05), light-green coloring indicates non-significant negative coefficients. * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001.
Basic yearly split-sample Poisson regression coefficients of the CD index on citation counts from 1950 to 2016. Error bars depict the upper and lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals based on robust standard errors. Dark-red coloring indicates significant positive coefficients (p < 0.05), and light-red coloring indicates non-significant positive coefficients. Dark-green coloring indicates significant negative coefficients (p < 0.05), light-green coloring indicates non-significant negative coefficients. * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001.

Figure 3.

Yearly split-sample Poisson regression coefficients of the CD index on citation counts from 1950 to 2016, with (a) 292 fields fixed effect, (b) reference count fixed effect, (c) team size fixed effects, and (d) all fixed effects. Error bars depict the upper and lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals based on robust standard errors. Dark-red coloring indicates significant positive coefficients (p < 0.05), and light-red coloring indicates non-significant positive coefficients. Dark-green coloring indicates significant negative coefficients (p < 0.05), light-green coloring indicates non-significant negative coefficients. * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001.
Yearly split-sample Poisson regression coefficients of the CD index on citation counts from 1950 to 2016, with (a) 292 fields fixed effect, (b) reference count fixed effect, (c) team size fixed effects, and (d) all fixed effects. Error bars depict the upper and lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals based on robust standard errors. Dark-red coloring indicates significant positive coefficients (p < 0.05), and light-red coloring indicates non-significant positive coefficients. Dark-green coloring indicates significant negative coefficients (p < 0.05), light-green coloring indicates non-significant negative coefficients. * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001.

Figure 4.

Split-sample Poisson regression coefficients of the CD index on citation counts based on reference counts. (a) Basic models without any fixed effects. (b) Full models including all fixed effects. Error bars depict the upper and lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals based on robust standard errors. * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001.
Split-sample Poisson regression coefficients of the CD index on citation counts based on reference counts. (a) Basic models without any fixed effects. (b) Full models including all fixed effects. Error bars depict the upper and lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals based on robust standard errors. * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001.

Figure 5.

Reference counts as a contributing factor to the bias against CD index. (a) The average reference count of papers increases over time. (b) The average 5-year citation count of papers increases over time. (c) The average 5-year CD index of papers decreases over time. (d) Papers with higher reference count are associated with higher 5-year citation count. (e) Papers with higher reference count are associated with higher 5-year CD index. (f) Papers with higher reference count are associated with higher parameters of 5-year CD index (ni, nj, and nk). (g) The number of papers with different reference count follows lognormal distribution. (h-i) The complementary cumulative distribution function (ccdf) and probability density function (pdf) of the CD index for papers with varying reference counts. Shaded areas indicate 95% confidence intervals.
Reference counts as a contributing factor to the bias against CD index. (a) The average reference count of papers increases over time. (b) The average 5-year citation count of papers increases over time. (c) The average 5-year CD index of papers decreases over time. (d) Papers with higher reference count are associated with higher 5-year citation count. (e) Papers with higher reference count are associated with higher 5-year CD index. (f) Papers with higher reference count are associated with higher parameters of 5-year CD index (ni, nj, and nk). (g) The number of papers with different reference count follows lognormal distribution. (h-i) The complementary cumulative distribution function (ccdf) and probability density function (pdf) of the CD index for papers with varying reference counts. Shaded areas indicate 95% confidence intervals.

Figure 6.

Yearly split-sample Poisson regression coefficients of new words, new word combinations, and their reuse on citation counts from 1950 to 2016. Error bars depict the upper and lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals based on robust standard errors. Dark-red coloring indicates significant positive coefficients (p < 0.05), and light-red coloring indicates non-significant positive coefficients. * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001.
Yearly split-sample Poisson regression coefficients of new words, new word combinations, and their reuse on citation counts from 1950 to 2016. Error bars depict the upper and lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals based on robust standard errors. Dark-red coloring indicates significant positive coefficients (p < 0.05), and light-red coloring indicates non-significant positive coefficients. * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001.

Figure 7.

Yearly split-sample Poisson regression coefficients of atypicality and disruptive citations on citation count from 1950 to 2016. Error bars depict the upper and lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals based on robust standard errors. Dark-red coloring indicates significant positive coefficients (p < 0.05), and light-red coloring indicates non-significant positive coefficients. * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001.
Yearly split-sample Poisson regression coefficients of atypicality and disruptive citations on citation count from 1950 to 2016. Error bars depict the upper and lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals based on robust standard errors. Dark-red coloring indicates significant positive coefficients (p < 0.05), and light-red coloring indicates non-significant positive coefficients. * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001.

The effect of the CD index on citation count with team-level controls_

Models (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
DV: 5-year citation count (Poisson regression)
5-year CD index -0.1993***(0.0133) -0.1541***(0.0137) -0.1639***(0.0137) -0.1789***(0.0135) -0.2018***(0.0135) -0.1618***(0.0147) -0.1234***(0.0151)
ln(Team size) 0.3405***(0.0016) 0.2533***(0.0018)
ln(Institution count) 0.3960***(0.0020) 0.2159***(0.0023)
ln(Country count) 0.4382***(0.0029) 0.0358***(0.0034)
ln(Home field count) 0.1950***(0.0018) -0.0498***(0.0018)
Gender diversity 0.2868***(0.0021) 0.0579***(0.0021)
Field FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Observations 13,180,603 13,180,603 13,180,603 13,180,603 13,180,603 12,262,497 12,262,497
Pseudo R2 0.05826 0.08234 0.0755 0.06733 0.06115 0.05924 0.08252

The effect of the number of new words on citation count with reference-level controls_

Models (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
DV: 5-year citation count (Poisson regression)
ln(New words count+1) 0.2191***(0.0021) 0.2195***(0.0020) 0.2094***(0.0021) 0.1970***(0.0021) 0.1956***(0.0021) 0.1771***(0.0020)
ln(Ref count) 0.6233***(0.0009) 0.8398***(0.0011)
ln(Ref age+1) -0.4137***(0.0009) -0.6649***(0.0015)
ln(Avg ref cit+1) 0.1836***(0.0004) 0.6474***(0.0017)
ln(Max ref cit+1) 0.1439***(0.0002) -0.3873***(0.0011)
Field FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Observations 25,263,987 25,263,987 25,174,032 25,262,880 25,262,880 25,174,032
Pseudo R2 0.06392 0.17867 0.08835 0.09575 0.10168 0.26690

The effect of the number of new word combinations on citation count with reference-level controls_

Models (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
DV: 5-year citation count (Poisson regression)
ln(New words count+1) 0.0978*** (0.0004) 0.0665*** (0.0004) 0.1002*** (0.0004) 0.0894*** (0.0004) 0.0841*** (0.0004) 0.0598*** (0.0004)
ln(Ref count) 0.6144*** (0.0010) 0.8333*** (0.0011)
ln(Ref age+1) -0.4242*** (0.0009) -0.6654*** (0.0015)
ln(Avg ref cit+1) 0.1800*** (0.0004) 0.6491*** (0.0017)
ln(Max ref cit+1) 0.1398*** (0.0002) -0.3900*** (0.0011)
Field FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Observations 25,263,987 25,263,987 25,174,032 25,262,880 25,262,880 25,174,032
Pseudo R2 0.07284 0.18198 0.09806 0.10322 0.10814 0.26989

The effect of atypicality on citation counts with reference-level controls_

Models (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
DV: 5-year citation count (Poisson regression)
Atypicality (percentile) 0.4457***(0.0018) 0.0249***(0.0019) 0.5505***(0.0017) 0.3110***(0.0018) 0.2475***(0.0019) 0.0217***(0.0018)
ln(Ref count) 0.6557***(0.0009) 0.8536***(0.0011)
ln(Ref age+1) -0.5450***(0.0010) -0.6462***(0.0014)
ln(Avg ref cit+1) 0.1764***(0.0004) 0.6479***(0.0017)
ln(Max ref cit+1) 0.1407***(0.0002) -0.3834***(0.0011)
Field FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Observations 27,656,587 27,656,587 27,584,165 27,656,569 27,656,569 27,584,165
Pseudo R2 0.06756 0.17913 0.10371 0.09461 0.0997 0.26379

The effect of new word reuse on citation count with reference-level controls_

Models (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
DV: 5-year citation count (Poisson regression)
ln(New words reuse+1) 0.1213***(0.0011) 0.1180***(0.0011) 0.1147***(0.0011) 0.1112***(0.0011) 0.1113***(0.0011) 0.0936***(0.0011)
ln(Ref count) 0.6230***(0.0009) 0.8390***(0.0011)
ln(Ref age+1) -0.4117***(0.0009) -0.6622***(0.0015)
ln(Avg ref cit+1) 0.1827***(0.0004) 0.6453***(0.0017)
ln(Max ref cit+1) 0.1434***(0.0002) -0.3865***(0.0011)
Field FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Observations 25,263,987 25,263,987 25,174,032 25,262,880 25,262,880 25,174,032
Pseudo R2 0.06638 0.18096 0.09056 0.09790 0.10385 0.26838

The effect of the CD index on citation count with author career-level controls_

Models (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
DV: 5-year citation count (Poisson regression)
5-year CD index -0.1993*** (0.0133) -0.1012*** (0.0137) 0.0429**(0.0146) 0.0590*** (0.0146) 0.2263*** (0.0157) 0.2307*** (0.0157) 0.3443*** (0.0166)
ln (Avg career age+1) 0.3368*** (0.0011) -0.3891*** (0.0019)
ln (Avg career 0.2601*** -0.2974***
productivity+1) (0.0007) (0.0058)
ln (Max career 0.2445*** -0.0278***
productivity +1) (0.0005) (0.0048)
ln (Avg career 0.2198*** 0.4242***
citations +1) (0.0005) (0.0044)
ln (Max career 0.2065*** 0.0573***
citations+1) (0.0004) (0.0040)
Field FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Observations 13,180,603 13,180,603 13,180,603 13,180,603 13,180,603 13,180,603 13,180,603
Pseudo R2 0.05826 0.08442 0.11291 0.12075 0.16595 0.1694 0.20231

The effect of the CD index on citation count with reference-level controls_

Models (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
DV: 5-year citation count (Poisson regression)
5-year CD index -0.1993***(0.0133) 0.6228***(0.0204) 0.2267***(0.0123) -0.0006 0.0310(0.0170) 1.920***(0.0212)
ln(Ref count) 0.5939***(0.0013) 0.8642***(0.0016)
ln(Ref age+1) -0.4257***(0.0011) -0.7780***(0.0019)
ln(Avg ref cit+1) 0.1910***(0.0005) 0.6947***(0.0021)
ln(Max ref cit+1) 0.1478***(0.0003) -0.4027***(0.0014)
Field FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Observations 13,180,603 13,180,603 13,180,603 13,180,603 13,180,603 13,180,603
Pseudo R2 0.05826 0.16705 0.08522 0.09294 0.09803 0.27983

The effect of new word combination reuse on citation count with reference-level controls_

Models (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
DV: 5-year citation count (Poisson regression)
ln(New words reuse+1) 0.0970***(0.0003) 0.0741***(0.0003) 0.0952***(0.0003) 0.0888***(0.0003) 0.0860***(0.0003) 0.0597***(0.0003)
ln(Ref count) 0.6078***(0.0010) 0.8260***(0.0011)
ln(Ref age+1) -0.4181***(0.0009) -0.6545*** (0.0014)
ln(Avg ref cit+1) 0.1755***0.0004) 0.6402*** (0.0017)
ln(Max ref cit+1) 0.1363***(0.0002) -0.3860***(0.0011)
Field FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Observations 25,263,987 25,263,987 25,174,032 25,262,880 25,262,880 25,174,032
Pseudo R2 0.08425 0.19005 0.10848 0.11290 0.11761 0.27463

The effect of disruptive citations on citation count with reference level controls_

Models (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
DV: 5-year citation count (Poisson regression)
ln(Disruptive citations+1) 0.9791***(0.0004) 0.9435***(0.0004) 0.9657***(0.0004) 0.9682***(0.0004) 0.9663***(0.0004) 0.8993***(0.0005)
ln(Ref count) 0.1827***(0.0004) 0.2734***(0.0006)
ln(Ref age+1) -0.2951***(0.0005) -0.3831***(0.0007)
ln(Avg ref cit+1) 0.0497***(0.0002) 0.1780***(0.0007)
ln(Max ref cit+1) 0.0435***(0.0001) -0.0992***(0.0005)
Field FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Observations 29,009,690 29,009,690 28,888,580 29,007,831 29,007,831 28,888,580
Pseudo R2 0.70948 0.71983 0.71953 0.71123 0.71217 0.73775
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