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The Economic Effects of Providing Legal Status to DREAMers

Francesc Ortega

Francesc Ortega

,

e

| 27 ago 2019

IZA Journal of Labor Policy's Cover Image

IZA Journal of Labor Policy

Volume 9 (2019): Numero 1 (June 2019)

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Pubblicato online: 27 ago 2019

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajolp-2019-0005

Parole chiave
DREAMers, immigration, legalization, undocumented

© 2019 Francesc Ortega, Ryan Edwards, Amy Hsin, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Public License.

Data Summary

	All	Docum.	Undoc.	Undoc17	Undoc17	Undoc17
					HSG+	HSG+, 32-
Employed (%)	61	61	68	60	60	57
College (%)	11	11	6	12	22	25
Non-employed (%)	28	28	27	27	18	18
Total count (Mn)	232.43	222.03	10.40	2.93	1.65	1.42
Wage ($)	20.61	20.82	16.39	14.73	15.94	14.40
as% Pop	100	95.53	4.47	1.26	0.71	0.61
as% Emp	100	95.53	4.99	1.24	0.70	0.57

Long-run Effects of the DREAM Act on GDP

Scenarios	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
	ΔGDP Pct. Change	ΔGDP $ billions	Legalized—All Millions	Legalized—Workers Millions	ΔGDP $ per worker
Legalization
(1) γ = 0	0.05	9.0	1.65	0.99	9,104
(2) γ = 0.50	0.08	15.2	1.65	0.99	15,371
(3) γ = 1	0.11	21.3	1.65	0.99	21,519

Removal	-0.42	-81.5	2.93	1.77	-46,061

Wage Effects of DACA. Percent Changes Relative to Baseline

Edu	Age	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Group	group	Wage growth Doc-Doc Undoc-Undoc	Labor shares Doc	Wage growth by edu Doc-Doc	Wage growth Legalized Undoc-Doc	Labor shares DREAMers	Wage growth by edu Legalized
HSD	1	0.01	0.24	0.00	.	0	.
HSD	2	0.01	0.17		.	0
HSD	3	0.01	0.20		.	0
HSD	4	0.01	0.23		.	0
HSD	5	0.01	0.16		.	0

HSG	1	-0.03	0.19	-0.01	5.96	0.68	12.43
HSG	2	-0.04	0.18		26.17	0.32
HSG	3	0	0.21		.	0
HSG	4	0	0.26		.	0
HSG	5	0	0.16		.	0

SoCo	1	-0.02	0.22	-0.01	3.98	0.72	11.73
SoCo	2	-0.02	0.22		31.64	0.28
SoCo	3	0	0.21		.	0
SoCo	4	0	0.22		.	0
SoCo	5	0	0.14		.	0

CoGrad	1	0	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.53	0.00
CoGrad	2	0.01	0.25		0.00	0.47
CoGrad	3	0.01	0.25		.	0
CoGrad	4	0.01	0.23		.	0
CoGrad	5	0.01	0.17		.	0

Additional Parameters

Parameter values
ϕ	0.56	DACA take-up rate
δ ^C	0.07	Increased prob. of employment for college students
δ ^N	0	Increased prob. of employment for “idle” individuals
Ψ	1	DREAM Act take-up rate
$γ_{2}^{L}$ $\gamma _{2}^{L}$	0.50	Increased prob. of college enrollment for employed individuals
$γ_{2}^{N}$ $\gamma _{2}^{N}$	0.50	Increased prob. of college enrollment for “idle” individuals

Effects of DACA on GDP

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
	Δ GDP	Δ GDP	Legalized	Legalized	Δ GDP
Scenarios	Pct. change	$ Billions	All	Employed	$ per worker
(1) No participation effect	0.0144	2.8	0.79	0.45	6,217
(2) College participants	0.0178	3.5	0.79	0.47	7,454
(3) Non-emp. participants	0.0170	3.3	0.79	0.46	7,181
(4) Universal take-up	0.0289	5.6	1.42	0.83	6,777
(5) Full exploitation	0.0032	0.6	0.79	0.47	1,340

Calibration Productivity Terms

		(1)	(2)	(3)
Edu	Age	$θ_{e, a}^{D o c}$ $\theta _{e,a}^{Doc}$	θ_{e ,a}	θ_e
HSD	1	1.04	1
HSD	2	1.18	2.02
HSD	3	1.26	2.39	1
HSD	4	1.35	2.56
HSD	5	1.39	2.28

HSG	1	1.06	1
HSG	2	1.26	1.87
HSG	3	1.38	2.31	2.27
HSG	4	1.44	2.59
HSG	5	1.59	2.19

SoCo	1	1.04	1
SoCo	2	1.32	2.27
SoCo	3	1.46	2.89	2.65
SoCo	4	1.42	3.1
SoCo	5	1.38	2.64

CoGrad	1	1	1
CoGrad	2	1	2.18
CoGrad	3	1.07	3.09	5.58
CoGrad	4	1.44	3.4
CoGrad	5	1.6	2.87
Avg.		1.22

Baseline Data (2012 ACS) on Documented Population and DREAMers. Shares of Column Totals

		(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)
Edu	Age	Doc	Doc	Doc	U17	U17	U17	U17HSG	U17HSG	U17HSG
		L	C	N	L	C	N	L	C	N
HSD	1	0.02	0	0.1	0.18	0	0.42	0	0	0
HSD	2	0.01	0	0.03	0.18	0	0.16	0	0	0
HSD	3	0.02	0	0.03	0.08	0	0.05	0	0	0
HSD	4	0.02	0	0.04	0	0	0	0	0	0
HSD	5	0.01	0	0.06	0	0	0	0	0	0

HSG	1	0.06	0.21	0.06	0.2	0.32	0.19	0.35	0.32	0.52
HSG	2	0.06	0.02	0.05	0.13	0.02	0.08	0.22	0.02	0.22
HSG	3	0.07	0.01	0.05	0.03	0	0.02	0.06	0	0.05
HSG	4	0.08	0.01	0.07	0	0	0	0	0	0
HSG	5	0.05	0	0.15	0	0	0	0	0	0

SoCo	1	0.06	0.37	0.02	0.09	0.51	0.03	0.17	0.51	0.09
SoCo	2	0.06	0.09	0.03	0.05	0.05	0.02	0.09	0.05	0.06
SoCo	3	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01
SoCo	4	0.06	0.02	0.04	0	0	0	0	0	0
SoCo	5	0.04	0.01	0.08	0	0	0	0	0	0

CoGrad	1	0.03	0.08	0.01	0.02	0.06	0.01	0.04	0.06	0.03
CoGrad	2	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.04	0.03	0.02
CoGrad	3	0.08	0.03	0.03	0	0	0	0.01	0	0
CoGrad	4	0.08	0.02	0.03	0	0	0	0	0	0
CoGrad	5	0.06	0.01	0.09	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total (M)		134.78	24.03	63.23	1.77	0.37	0.8	0.99	0.37	0.29
Total (M)			222.03			2.93			1.65

Wage Effects of DREAM Act. Percent Changes Relative to Baseline

Edu	Age	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
		Doc %Δ wage	Doc labor shares	Doc %Δ wage	Legalized %Δ wage	Legalized labor shares	Legalized %Δ wage
HSD	1	0.03	0.24	0.03	.	0	.
HSD	2	0.03	0.17		.	0
HSD	3	0.03	0.20		.	0
HSD	4	0.03	0.23		.	0
HSD	5	0.03	0.16		.	0

HSG	1	0.37	0.19	0.16	22.20	0.55	52.37
HSG	2	0.21	0.18		85.09	0.35
HSG	3	0.1	0.21		115.36	0.09
HSG	4	0.08	0.26		.	0
HSG	5	0.08	0.16		.	0

SoCo	1	-0.42	0.22	-0.22	3.56	0.61	15.33
SoCo	2	-0.34	0.22		31.21	0.32
SoCo	3	-0.15	0.21		45.33	0.07
SoCo	4	-0.08	0.22		.	0
SoCo	5	-0.07	0.14		.	0

CoGrad	1	0.03	0.10	0.03	0.03	0.42	0.67
CoGrad	2	0.03	0.25		0.03	0.49
CoGrad	3	0.02	0.25		7.23	0.09
CoGrad	4	0.03	0.23		.	0
CoGrad	5	0.03	0.17		.	0

eISSN:: 2193-9004
Lingua:: Inglese

Frequenza di pubblicazione:: Volume Open
Argomenti della rivista:: Business and Economics, Political Economics, Microeconomics, Macroecomics, Economic Policy, Mathematics and Statistics for Economists, Econometrics

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