South-South migration and elections: evidence from post-apartheid South Africa

Biniam E. Bedasso; Pascal Jaupart

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South-South migration and elections: evidence from post-apartheid South Africa

Biniam E. Bedasso

Pascal Jaupart

| 02 set 2020

IZA Journal of Development and Migration

Volume 11 (2020): Numero 1 (January 2020)

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Pubblicato online: 02 set 2020

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2020-0015

Parole chiave
immigration, elections, South Africa, South-South migration

© 2020 Biniam E. Bedasso, Pascal Jaupart, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Spatial distribution of immigrants (2011 census data).

Administrative territorial divisions of South Africa.Sources: Authors, GADM.

Magisterial units and district boundaries.Sources: Authors, GADM.

Municipality and the 1996 district council boundaries.Sources: Authors, GADM.

Excluding immigration distribution tails

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)

Dependent variable	ANC vote share		DA vote share
Immigration	–4.474*** (0.806)	–4.889*** (1.386)	3.476** (1.352)	4.011*** (1.458)
Observations	189	189	189	189
Adjusted R2	0.336		0.635
Weighted	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Covariates	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Estimator	FD	FD-2SLS	FD	FD-2SLS
KP F-statistic		12.18		12.18

Main results—provincial elections

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)

Dependent variable	ANC vote share				DA vote share
Immigration	–1.989*** (0.288)	–2.204*** (0.514)	–2.048*** (0.452)	–2.985*** (0.967)	1.936*** (0.580)	2.573*** (0.883)	1.289** (0.502)	2.115** (0.958)
Urban population			–0.538*** (0.167)	–0.594*** (0.159)			–0.264 (0.208)	–0.214 (0.187)
Female population			–2.409** (1.197)	–2.012* (1.074)			0.432 (0.928)	0.0816 (0.975)
Unemployment rate			0.493* (0.287)	0.281 (0.302)			0.364 (0.388)	0.551 (0.415)
Internal migration			0.183 (0.363)	0.303 (0.399)			0.191 (0.273)	0.0856 (0.346)
Ethnic diversity (HHI)			0.0474 (0.221)	0.102 (0.223)			0.785** (0.340)	0.737** (0.330)
Electricity access			0.178 (0.117)	0.0451 (0.125)			–0.265*** (0.0625)	–0.147* (0.0888)
No schooling			–0.164 (0.308)	–0.338 (0.323)			–0.492*** (0.163)	–0.338** (0.166)
Observations	210	210	210	210	210	210	210	210
Adjusted R2	0.291		0.354		0.370		0.526
Weighted	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Estimator	FD	FD-2SLS	FD	FD-2SLS	FD	FD-2SLS	FD	FD-2SLS
KP F-statistic		20.40		14.18		20.40		14.18

Immigrant skill level

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)

Dependent variable	ANC vote share				DA vote share
Low-skill immigration	–2.770*** (0.590)	–5.420*** (2.044)			1.285** (0.489)	3.485* (1.859)
High-skill immigration			–6.692*** (1.624)	–7.733*** (2.292)			4.840** (2.131)	4.972** (2.124)
Observations	210	210	210	210	210	210	210	210
Adjusted R2	0.299		0.371		0.451		0.575
Estimator	FD	FD-2SLS	FD	FD-2SLS	FD	FD-2SLS	FD	FD-2SLS
Covariates	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Weighted	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
KP F-statistic		10.05		19.23		10.05		19.23

Racial background of immigrants

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)

Dependent variable	ANC vote share			DA vote share
Immigration—Whites	−3.413 (6.390)		−	0.111 (3.537)
Immigration—Blacks		−2.006*** (0.455)			1.028** (0.406)
Immigration—Others			−19.44*** (2.872)			16.84*** (3.807)
Observations	210	210	210	210	210	210
Adjusted R²	0.158	0.308	0.450	0.403	0.465	0.741
Covariates	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Weighted	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Estimator	FD	FD	FD	FD	FD	FD

Channels—DA

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)

Dependent variable: DA vote share
Immigration	–0.0253	1.873*	1.798	–0.708	–0.767	–0.807	–0.614	2.149	0.624**	1.853***	0.345	1.210**
	(0.239)	(0.981)	(1.135)	(0.638)	(0.612)	(0.730)	(0.429)	(1.397)	(0.254)	(0.245)	(0.343)	(0.554)
x Urban population	0.937*
	(0.472)
x Female population		0.974
		(0.747)
x Internal migration			–0.318
			(0.384)
x Unemployment rate				–2.710**
				(1.335)
x Electricity access					2.407*
					(1.346)
x No schooling						–1.152*
						(0.652)
x Piped water access							1.850**
							(0.846)
x Ethnic diversity								–0.548
								(0.570)
x Black population									–3.541***
									(0.482)
x Colored population										3.499***
										(0.345)
x White population											0.719**
											(0.344)
x Asian population												–0.145
												(0.260)
Observations	215	215	215	215	215	215	215	215	215	215	215	215
Adjusted R2	0.532	0.521	0.499	0.560	0.556	0.542	0.532	0.499	0.800	0.808	0.523	0.493
Weighted	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Covariates	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Estimator	FD	FD	FD	FD	FD	FD	FD	FD	FD	FD	FD	FD

Robustness to the exclusion of provinces

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)

Sample	Excludes Western Cape		Excludes Gauteng		Excludes KwaZulu-Natal
Panel A: National elections
	ANC		ANC		ANC
Immigration	–1.733*** (0.366)	–2.596*** (0.933)	–2.958*** (0.778)	–7.263*** (2.555)	–1.057*** (0.229)	–1.605*** (0.475)
Observations	187	187	200	200	160	160
Adjusted R2	0.346		0.223		0.809
	DA		DA		DA
Immigration	0.597*** (0.118)	1.087*** (0.336)	2.118 (1.313)	6.131*** (1.519)	0.877** (0.385)	1.454* (0.825)
Observations	187	187	200	200	160	160
Adjusted R2	0.606		0.469		0.550

Panel B: Provincial elections
	ANC		ANC		ANC
Immigration	–1.804*** (0.377)	–2.700*** (0.945)	–2.968*** (0.784)	–7.299*** (2.565)	–1.125*** (0.242)	–1.718*** (0.495)
Observations	187	187	200	200	160	160
Adjusted R2	0.362		0.224		0.800
	DA		DA		DA
Immigration	0.734*** (0.150)	1.297*** (0.385)	2.280 (1.393)	6.743*** (1.521)	1.056** (0.416)	1.702* (0.881)
Observations	187	187	200	200	160	160
Adjusted R2	0.649		0.487		0.570
Weighted	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Covariates	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Estimator	FD	FD-2SLS	FD	FD-2SLS	FD	FD-2SLS
KP F-statistic		10.93		5.846		18.32

Votes as a share of registered voters

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)

Dependent variable	ANC vote share		DA vote share
Immigration	−1.321*** (0.380)	−1.521** (0.689)	0.868** (0.372)	1.504** (0.719)
Observations	210	210	210	210
Adjusted R²	0.294	.	0.488	.
Weighted	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Covariates	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Estimator	FD	FD-2SLS	FD	FD-2SLS
KP F-statistic		14.18		14.18

IV based on the 1996 census

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)

	ANC vote share		DA vote share
Panel A: National elections
Immigration	−2.002*** (0.442)	−2.942*** (1.040)	1.123** (0.466)	1.256** (0.582)
Observations	215	215	215	215
Adjusted R²	0.330	.	0.494	.

Panel B: Provincial elections
Immigration	−2.067*** (0.446)	−2.965*** (1.018)	1.288** (0.497)	1.440** (0.622)
Observations	215	215	215	215
Adjusted R²	0.346	.	0.526	.
Weighted	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Covariates	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Estimator	FD	FD-2SLS	FD	FD-2SLS
KP F-statistic	.	15.17	.	15.17

District-level regressions

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)

Dependent variable	ANC vote share				DA vote share
Immigration	–2.058*** (0.401)	–2.061*** (0.504)	–2.422*** (0.745)	–3.254*** (1.248)	1.887*** (0.673)	2.298*** (0.830)	1.475** (0.656)	2.411** (1.092)
Urban population			–0.842** (0.360)	–0.925*** (0.336)			–0.452 (0.326)	–0.358 (0.302)
Female population			–3.220 (3.290)	–2.619 (2.938)			–1.163 (2.486)	–1.839 (2.330)
Unemployment rate			0.528 (0.563)	0.226 (0.615)			0.859 (0.566)	1.199** (0.568)
Internal migration			0.735 (0.961)	0.862 (0.869)			0.105 (0.572)	–0.0379 (0.627)
Ethnic diversity			0.0183 (0.451)	0.0709 (0.416)			1.319*** (0.393)	1.260*** (0.334)
Electricity access			0.183 (0.307)	0.0255 (0.329)			–0.303 (0.185)	–0.125 (0.213)
No schooling			–0.259 (0.525)	–0.428 (0.522)			–0.507** (0.222)	–0.317 (0.243)
Observations	51	51	51	51	51	51	51	51
Adjusted R2	0.299		0.297		0.365		0.583
Weighted	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Estimator	FD	FD-2SLS	FD	FD-2SLS	FD	FD-2SLS	FD	FD-2SLS
KP F-statistic		20.08		12.76		20.08		12.76

Main results—national elections

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)

Dependent variable	ANC vote share				DA vote share
Immigration	–1.903*** (0.282)	–2.097*** (0.504)	–1.982*** (0.447)	–2.898*** (0.965)	1.698*** (0.545)	2.260*** (0.815)	1.126** (0.471)	1.863** (0.898)
Urban population			–0.538*** (0.168)	–0.593*** (0.161)			–0.247 (0.196)	–0.203 (0.175)
Female population			–2.479** (1.212)	–2.091* (1.092)			0.412 (0.889)	0.0987 (0.936)
Unemployment rate			0.483* (0.287)	0.276 (0.305)			0.361 (0.372)	0.528 (0.400)
Internal migration			0.148 (0.345)	0.265 (0.383)			0.204 (0.246)	0.109 (0.313)
Ethnic diversity (HHI)			0.0116 (0.217)	0.0646 (0.218)			0.768** (0.330)	0.725** (0.320)
Electricity access			0.161 (0.116)	0.0311 (0.125)			–0.226*** (0.0583)	–0.121 (0.0840)
No schooling			–0.197 (0.305)	–0.367 (0.320)			–0.422*** (0.156)	–0.285* (0.161)
Observations	210	210	210	210	210	210	210	210
Adjusted R2	0.273		0.338		0.334		0.493
Weighted	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Estimator	FD	FD-2SLS	FD	FD-2SLS	FD	FD-2SLS	FD	FD-2SLS
KP F-statistic		20.40		14.18		20.40		14.18

Belief and opinion variable definitions

Variable name	Detailed question	Binary coding
Prohibit foreigners	How about people from other countries coming to South Afri- ca? Which one of the following do you think the government should do? 1 = Prohibit people entering from other countries, 2 = Place strict restrictions on the number of foreigners who can enter, 3 = Let people in as long as there are jobs available, 4 = Let anyone in who wants to enter, 9 = Do not know	Variable equal to 1 if respondent answer is option 1, and zero otherwise
Distrust foreigners	How much do you trust each of the following types of people: what about foreigners living here in South Africa? Trust foreigners living here in SAF. 0 = Not at all, 1 = Just a little, 2 = I trust them somewhat, 3 = I trust them a lot, 9 = Do not know	Variable equal to 1 if respondent answer is option 0 or option 1, and zero otherwise
Govt mismanages immigration	How well or badly would you say the former Mbeki govern- ment was handling the following matters: Managing immigration. 1 = Very badly, 2 = Fairly badly, 3 = Fairly well, 4 = Very well, 9 = Do not know/Have not heard enough	Variable equal to 1 if respondent answer is option 1 or option 2, and zero otherwise
Would vote ANC	If a presidential election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you vote for?	Variable equal to 1 if respondent answer is ANC, and zero otherwise

East-West split

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)

Dependent variable	ANC vote share				DA vote share

	East		West		East		West
Immigration	–1.950*** (0.427)	–3.122*** (1.150)	–1.505*** (0.379)	–4.734*** (1.193)	0.720*** (0.154)	1.210*** (0.395)	1.569 (1.607)	6.710*** (1.918)
Observations	123	123	87	87	123	123	87	87
Adjusted R2	0.418		0.682		0.787		0.630
Weighted	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Covariates	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Estimator	FD	FD-2SLS	FD	FD-2SLS	FD	FD-2SLS	FD	FD-2SLS
KP F-statistic		8.871		11.16		8.871		11.16

1991 economic conditions

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)

	ANC vote share		DA vote share
Panel A: National elections
Immigration	−2.147*** (0.468)	−2.819*** (0.932)	1.226** (0.466)	2.129** (0.949)
Observations	210	210	210	210
Adjusted R²	0.387	.	0.503	.

Panel B: Provincial elections
Immigration	−2.198*** (0.474)	−2.897*** (0.937)	1.386*** (0.498)	2.407** (1.026)
Observations	210	210	210	210
Adjusted R²	0.395	.	0.534	.
Weighted	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Covariates	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Estimator	FD	FD-2SLS	FD	FD-2SLS
KP F-statistic	.	21.06	.	21.06

First stage results

	(1)	(2)

Dependent variable	Immigration
IV predicted immigration (1996 census)	0.777*** (0.192)	0.720*** (0.185)
Urban population		−0.0265 (0.0435)
Female population		−0.113 (0.211)
Unemployment rate		−0.0590 (0.0650)
Internal migration		0.170 (0.135)
Ethnic diversity (HHI)		0.0573 (0.0353)
Electricity access		−0.100*** (0.0260)
No schooling		−0.0497 (0.0441)
Observations	215	215
Adjusted R²	0.554	0.630
Weighted	Yes	Yes
Estimator	FD	FD
F-statistic IV	16.54	16.16

Individual opinion survey—part 1

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)

Dependent variable	Prohibit foreigners	Distrust foreigners	Govt mismanages immigration	Would vote ANC
Foreign born (% pop)	0.0105* (0.00604)	0.00421 (0.00541)	0.0143** (0.00608)	-0.00902*** (0.00309)
Age	-0.00637** (0.00319)	–0.00373 (0.00284)	0.00562 (0.00481)	0.00754** (0.00329)
Age squared	0.0000514 (0.0000388)	0.0000469 (0.0000350)	–0.0000522 (0.0000530)	–0.000105*** (0.0000367)
Female	–0.0232 (0.0200)	–0.0178 (0.0134)	–0.0288 (0.0214)	–0.00442 (0.0154)
Language—English	–0.103* (0.0597)	0.0225 (0.0270)	–0.0626 (0.0415)	–0.131*** (0.0401)
Language—Afrikaan	–0.0417 (0.0946)	0.0269 (0.0336)	0.0483 (0.0542)	–0.269*** (0.0445)
Language—Xhosa	–0.0848 (0.0707)	0.0690* (0.0352)	–0.0957** (0.0378)	–0.183*** (0.0408)
Education—less than primary	0.102*** (0.0358)	–0.0139 (0.0270)	–0.0646 (0.0416)	0.0471 (0.0367)
Education—secondary completed	0.0378 (0.0340)	0.000322 (0.0252)	–0.0387 (0.0375)	–0.00819 (0.0272)
Education—tertiary	–0.0571 (0.0432)	–0.00792 (0.0332)	0.0174 (0.0397)	0.0172 (0.0342)
Employed	–0.00424 (0.0303)	–0.0246 (0.0209)	–0.0124 (0.0307)	0.00891 (0.0237)
Piped water in house	0.0609* (0.0353)	–0.0372 (0.0300)	0.0758* (0.0452)	–0.0971*** (0.0279)
Informal housing (%)	0.000937** (0.000370)	0.000198 (0.000511)	0.000328 (0.000659)	0.00152*** (0.000517)
Urban	–0.0135 (0.0385)	0.0139 (0.0285)	0.00295 (0.0436)	–0.0172 (0.0364)
Observations	2,279	2,271	2,164	2,331

Local election results

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)

Dependent variable: ANC	vote share
Immigration	−0.684** (0.279)	−0.676 (0.542)	−0.708** (0.281)	−1.102** (0.536)
Urban population	−0.371** (0.167)	−0.370** (0.154)	−0.350** (0.162)	−0.376** (0.154)
Female population	−1.074 (0.962)	−1.077 (0.905)	−0.842 (0.949)	−0.683 (0.934)
Unemployment rate	0.00826 (0.266)	0.0101 (0.284)	−0.0547 (0.266)	−0.140 (0.265)
Internal migration	0.145 (0.410)	0.144 (0.378)	0.107 (0.402)	0.160 (0.400)
Ethnic diversity (HHI)	0.140 (0.232)	0.140 (0.220)	0.208 (0.232)	0.230 (0.233)
Electricity access	0.0751 (0.0827)	0.0763 (0.107)	0.0925 (0.0834)	0.0369 (0.101)
No schooling	−0.445* (0.251)	−0.443 (0.270)	−0.401 (0.256)	−0.475* (0.269)
Observations	210	210	215	215
Adjusted R²	0.258	.	0.288	.
Weighted	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Estimator	FD	FD-2SLS	FD	FD-2SLS
IV	1991	census	1996	census
KP F-statistic	.	14.18	.	15.17

Heterogeneity analysis

	(1)	(2)

Dependent variable	ANC vote share	DA vote share
Immigration	−4.980*** (1.646)	1.736** (0.662)
x Urban population	−0.670 (0.696)	−0.283 (0.455)
x Female population	−0.549 (0.353)	−0.0525 (0.222)
x Internal migration	0.0436 (0.497)	−0.890*** (0.305)
x Unemployment rate	−0.742 (1.107)	0.194 (0.557)
x Electricity access	−2.104** (1.036)	−0.417 (0.627)
x No schooling	0.559 (0.888)	−1.142 (0.803)
x Piped water access	1.578 (1.488)	−0.608 (0.845)
x Ethnic diversity	2.140** (0.827)	0.336 (0.475)
x Black population	0.226 (0.665)	−3.876*** (0.573)
x White population	−0.670* (0.345)	−0.249 (0.259)
x Asian population	1.072*** (0.221)	−0.351** (0.172)
Observations	215	215
Adjusted R²	0.428	0.838
Weighted	Yes	Yes
Covariates	Yes	Yes
Estimator	FD	FD

Turnout

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)

	Dependent variable: Turnout

	FD		FD-2SLS		FD		FD-2SLS
Immigration	–0.187 (0.176)	0.175 (0.153)	–0.353 (0.360)	0.856** (0.392)	–0.193 (0.179)	0.173 (0.153)	–0.976 (0.729)	–0.125 (0.371)
Urban population		–0.269* (0.135)		–0.228* (0.137)		–0.259* (0.134)		–0.278** (0.127)
Female population		–1.047* (0.623)		–1.336** (0.651)		–1.026* (0.608)		–0.906 (0.580)
Unemployment rate		0.186 (0.133)		0.340*** (0.124)		0.182 (0.126)		0.117 (0.153)
Internal migration		0.138 (0.208)		0.0503 (0.243)		0.148 (0.205)		0.188 (0.197)
Ethnic diversity		0.102 (0.108)		0.0626 (0.106)		0.0900 (0.103)		0.107 (0.110)
Electricity access		–0.161** (0.0615)		–0.0636 (0.0662)		–0.180*** (0.0596)		–0.222*** (0.0823)
No schooling		0.193 (0.124)		0.319*** (0.121)		0.182 (0.125)		0.125 (0.128)
Observations	210	210	210	210	215	215	215	215
Adjusted R2	0.005	0.444			0.005	0.481
Weighted	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
IV			1991 census			1996 census
KP F-statistic			20.40	14.18			16.34	15.17

Channels—ANC

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)

Dependent variable: ANC vote share
Immigration	–2.314***	–2.612***	–2.867**	–1.984***	–1.446**	–1.843**	–2.521***	–4.235***	–1.828***	–2.310***	–1.654***	–2.521***
	(0.552)	(0.770)	(1.167)	(0.738)	(0.570)	(0.813)	(0.785)	(1.333)	(0.398)	(0.410)	(0.522)	(0.383)
x Urban population	0.254
	(0.378)
x Female population		–0.792
		(0.587)
x Internal migration			0.408
			(0.468)
x Unemployment rate				0.0272
				(0.925)
x Electricity access					–0.708
					(0.905)
x No schooling						0.0948
						(0.496)
x Piped water access							0.553
							(0.780)
x Ethnic diversity								1.192*
								(0.636)
x Black population									1.233***
									(0.409)
x Colored population										–1.477***
										(0.334)
x White population											–0.322
											(0.245)
x Asian population												0.868***
												(0.197)
Observations	215	215	215	215	215	215	215	215	215	215	215	215
Adjusted R2	0.328	0.339	0.334	0.326	0.330	0.327	0.329	0.348	0.351	0.363	0.330	0.370
Weighted	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Covariates	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Estimator	FD	FD	FD	FD	FD	FD	FD	FD	FD	FD	FD	FD

Individual opinion survey—part 2

	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)

Dependent variable	Govt mismanages immigration	Would vote ANC	Govt mismanages immigration	Would vote ANC
Prohibit foreigners	0.0814*** (0.0265)	–0.0400 (0.0455)
Distrust foreigners			0.0762 (0.0476)	–0.0561 (0.0393)
Age	0.00687 (0.00484)	0.00753** (0.00330)	0.00628 (0.00481)	0.00681** (0.00324)
Age squared	–0.0000653 (0.0000530) –	0.000105*** (0.0000374)	–0.0000618 (0.0000534)	–0.0000968*** (0.0000369)
Female	–0.0287 (0.0223)	–0.00880 (0.0154)	–0.0245 (0.0213)	–0.00703 (0.0160)
Language—English	–0.0408 (0.0409)	–0.155*** (0.0413)	–0.0588 (0.0393)	–0.131*** (0.0388)
Language—Afrikaan	0.0636 (0.0534)	–0.281*** (0.0450)	0.0513 (0.0534)	–0.268*** (0.0458)
Language—Xhosa	–0.109*** (0.0408)	–0.185*** (0.0431)	–0.114*** (0.0397)	–0.168*** (0.0416)
Education—less than primary	–0.0551 (0.0414)	0.0450 (0.0378)	–0.0517 (0.0403)	0.0400 (0.0387)
Education—secondary completed	–0.0459 (0.0362)	–0.0133 (0.0271)	–0.0337 (0.0365)	–0.0138 (0.0253)
Education—tertiary	0.0279 (0.0398)	0.00820 (0.0336)	0.0198 (0.0388)	0.0207 (0.0354)
Employed	–0.00688 (0.0319)	0.00780 (0.0266)	–0.00466 (0.0331)	–0.00238 (0.0261)
Piped water in house	0.0762 (0.0477)	–0.0973*** (0.0268)	0.0847* (0.0481)	–0.104*** (0.0278)
Informal housing (%)	0.000393 (0.000702)	0.00148*** (0.000521)	0.000358 (0.000700)	0.00162*** (0.000536)
Urban	0.0350 (0.0510)	–0.0452 (0.0361)	0.0355 (0.0519)	–0.0433 (0.0352)
Observations	2,124	2,279	2,114	2,271

Summary statistics

	N	Mean	SD	Min	Max
Prohibit foreigners	2,347	0.215	0.411	0	1
Prohibit or place strict restrictions on foreigners	2,347	0.657	0.475	0	1
Distrust foreigners	2,339	0.846	0.361	0	1
Govt mismanages immigration	2,230	0.689	0.463	0	1
Would vote ANC	2,400	0.705	0.456	0	1
Foreign born (% population)	2,400	3.893	3.327	0.0127	25.41
Age	2,375	37.79	14.21	18	97
Age squared	2,375	1,630	1,244	324	9,409
Female	2,400	0.500	0.500	0	1
Language—English	2,400	0.456	0.498	0	1
Language—Afrikaan	2,400	0.232	0.422	0	1
Language—Xhosa	2,400	0.146	0.353	0	1
Language—Zulu	2,400	0.166	0.372	0	1
Education—less than primary	2,400	0.136	0.343	0	1
Education—secondary completed	2,400	0.285	0.452	0	1
Education—tertiary	2,400	0.174	0.379	0	1
Employed	2,386	0.497	0.500	0	1
Piped water in house	2,367	0.554	0.497	0	1
Informal housing in the area (%)	2,400	14.16	23.30	0	100
Urban area	2,400	0.657	0.475	0	1

eISSN:: 2520-1786
Lingua:: Inglese

Frequenza di pubblicazione:: Volume Open
Argomenti della rivista:: Business and Economics, Political Economics, Microeconomics, Macroecomics, Economic Policy, Mathematics and Statistics for Economists, Econometrics

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South-South migration and elections: evidence from post-apartheid South Africa

Pubblicato online: 02 set 2020

Pagine: -

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2020-0015

Parole chiaveimmigration, elections, South Africa, South-South migration

© 2020 Biniam E. Bedasso, Pascal Jaupart, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6

Figure 7

Figure 8

Figure 9

Figure 10

Figure 11

Figure A1

Figure A2

Figure B1

Figure B2

Excluding immigration distribution tails

Main results—provincial elections

Immigrant skill level

Racial background of immigrants

Channels—DA

Robustness to the exclusion of provinces

Votes as a share of registered voters

IV based on the 1996 census

District-level regressions

Main results—national elections

Belief and opinion variable definitions

East-West split

1991 economic conditions

First stage results

Individual opinion survey—part 1

Local election results

Heterogeneity analysis

Turnout

Channels—ANC

Individual opinion survey—part 2

Summary statistics

Parole chiave
immigration, elections, South Africa, South-South migration