Forecasting the development of the industrial complex: Southern Federal District

The purpose of this study is to build a cognitive model of the system–industrial complex of the Southern Federal District of Russia. The Southern Federal District is a region in the south of Russia, which includes the regions of Rostov, Volgograd, Astrakhan, and Krasnodar; the Republics of Adygea, Kalmykia, and Crimea; and the federal city of Sevastopol. The object of the study was the industrial complex of Southern Federal District, which ranks 6th in terms of the share of manufacturing among the federal districts. The study was conducted at the Southern Federal University, which is located in the Southern Federal District of Russia. This article discusses the use of the cognitive modeling method, which allows us to determine the degree of system stability and the direction of system development under varying degrees of influence of external factors. This method is used to build forecasts of the development of poorly structured socioeconomic systems. The cognitive modeling method made it possible to predict one of the scenarios for the development of the industrial complex of the Southern region of the Russian Federation. For the subject under study, indicative, controlling, and regulating peaks have been identified, but the difficulty of forecasting is noted due to the lack of a general program for the industrial complex of the federal district. The article presents scenarios of industrial development of the Rostov and Krasnodar regions as the most industrially developed regions in the Southern Federal District. Cognitive modeling allows building scenarios of development of the studied systems of regions by means of impulse influence, that is, when one vertex affects another vertex. The modeling results made it possible to build a cognitive map of the industrial complex of the Southern Federal District. This map showed that in the case of impulse impact on the industrial complex, it is necessary to strengthen regulatory measures on the part of the state.