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Application of PanDict System Based on EPSEIRV and SI3R Models in Epidemic Forecasting and Healthcare Resource Planning

Bohan Liu

Bohan Liu

Phillips Exeter Academy ExeterExeter, USA
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Liu, Bohan
  
15 mar 2024
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Pubblicato online: 15 mar 2024
Pagine: 46 - 56
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ijanmc-2023-0065
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© 2023 Bohan Liu., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Figure 1.

System Usage Flowchart
System Usage Flowchart

Figure 2.

Change between each compartment of the EPSEIRV model summarized in a flowchart.
Change between each compartment of the EPSEIRV model summarized in a flowchart.

Figure 3.

Comparison between the SEIRV model equations and the EPSEIRV model equations.
Comparison between the SEIRV model equations and the EPSEIRV model equations.

Figure 4.

Change between each compartment of the SI3R model summarized in a flowchart.
Change between each compartment of the SI3R model summarized in a flowchart.

Figure 5.

Projected Positive Percentage as a Function of Time in the US Produced by the epseirv Model
Projected Positive Percentage as a Function of Time in the US Produced by the epseirv Model

Figure 6.

Real-Time Reproduction Number as a Function of Time in the US Produced by the EPSEIRV Model
Real-Time Reproduction Number as a Function of Time in the US Produced by the EPSEIRV Model

Figure 7.

Simulation of the Competition Between Omicron and a Hypothetical Mutant
Simulation of the Competition Between Omicron and a Hypothetical Mutant

Figure 8.

Visual Display of the IHOV Model Results
Visual Display of the IHOV Model Results

THE STATISTICS OF THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

Major Activity Average Time Potential Fraction Resulting Time
Personal Care Activities (Sleeping, Grooming...) 10.74 0 0
Household Activities 2.01 0 0
Purchasing Goods and Services 0.38 0.2 0.076
Caring for and Helping Household Members 0.43 0 0
Caring for and Helping Non-household Members 0.14 1 0.14
Working and Work-Related Activities 3.02 0.58 1.7516
Attending Class (Education) 0.18 0.54 0.0972
Homework and Research 0.19 0 0
Organizational, Civic, and Religious Activities 0.18 1 0.18
Socializing and communicating 0.54 0.6 0.324
Watching Television 3.05 0 0
Participating in Sports, Exercise, and Recreation 0.37 1 0.37
Telephone Calls, Email, and Mail 0.22 0 0
Travel 0.79 0.05 0.0395
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