1. bookVolume 21 (2021): Edizione 2 (December 2021)
Dettagli della rivista
Prima pubblicazione
06 May 2008
Frequenza di pubblicazione
2 volte all'anno
access type Accesso libero

Absorption Rate as a Tool for Assessing the Dynamics of Development Activity

Pubblicato online: 26 Nov 2021
Volume & Edizione: Volume 21 (2021) - Edizione 2 (December 2021)
Pagine: 1 - 20
Ricevuto: 22 Feb 2021
Accettato: 29 Sep 2021
Dettagli della rivista
Prima pubblicazione
06 May 2008
Frequenza di pubblicazione
2 volte all'anno

Research background: An assessment of the dynamics of the development of the housing market is critical for development activity and the institutions that finance it. Due to the capital intensity of development projects, it seems necessary to perform detailed analyses to be sure that the investment will find buyers and to know how much time it will take for this undertaking to be sold. The absorption rate reports it.

Purpose: The aim of the article is, therefore, to verify the importance of the absorption rate in assessing the dynamics of property market development based on the example of housing development activity in Łódź.

Research methodology: To achieve the aim, in the empirical part of the article, information on developers’ investments in Łódź was independently collected, and based on them, absorption ratios for several periods were estimated.

Results: The study showed dynamic changes in the absorption rate, as well as its diversity depending on the type of building and location. That is why it is so important to analyze this indicator in developers’ activity, where the risk of recovering the capital engaged is very high.

Novelty: In Poland, there are few publications on the given topic, and the existing analyses of the absorption rate in Poland, prepared for the largest Polish cities, do not include the division into specific locations or the type of real estate, which is why they are not sufficiently reliable information for developers.


JEL Classification

Antczak A. (2013). Developers’ Activity in Selected Cities of Poland – A Comparative Analysis, Real Estate Management and Valuation, 21 (1), 59–68. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/remav-2013-0008.10.2478/remav-2013-0008 Search in Google Scholar

Antczak-Stępniak, A. (2019). A market analysis in development activity. The problem of the availability of statistical data in European countries, Real Estate Management and Valuation, 26 (4), 35–44, DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/remav-2018-0034.10.2478/remav-2018-0034 Search in Google Scholar

Antczak-Stępniak A. (2020). Location tendencies in developer investments in the residential market in Łódź, Bulletin Of Geography. Socio-economic Series, 47, 133–144, DOI: 10.1515/20301. Search in Google Scholar

Begg, D., Fisher, S., Dornbusch, R. (1993). Ekonomia. Warszawa: Państwowe Wydawnictwo Ekonomiczne. Search in Google Scholar

Boyd, G. (2018). Survey of Market Absorption of New Multifamily Units. 2018 Annual Absorption Report (2017 Absorptions for 2016 Completions). U.S. Census Bureau. Search in Google Scholar

Creedy, J., Wall, N.F. (1979). Real Estate Investment by Objective. US: McGraw-Hill Book Company. Search in Google Scholar

Dąbrowski, M., Kirejczyk, K. (2001). Inwestycje deweloperskie. Warszawa: TWIGGER. Search in Google Scholar

Delauney, N., Burton, J., Talpade S. (2011). Supply and demand analysis of single-family residential units in Carroll County, Georgia. Research in Business and Economics Journal. Retrieved from: https://www.aabri.com/manuscripts/10735.pdf. Search in Google Scholar

Dziworska, K., Trojanowski, D. (2006). Struktura procesu inwestycyjnego projektów deweloperskich. In: A. Nalepka (ed.), Inwestycje i nieruchomości (pp. 42–46). Kraków: Akademia Ekonomiczna w Krakowie. Search in Google Scholar

Eldred, G.W. (1987). Real Estate: Analysis and Strategy, Harper & Row. Search in Google Scholar

Floyd, Ch.F., Allen, M.T. (1987). Real Estate Principles. Chicago: Dearborn Financial Publishing Inc. Search in Google Scholar

Frino, A., Lepone, A., Mollica, V., Vassallo, A. (2010). The Impact of Auctions on Residential Sale Prices: Australian Evidence. Australasian Accounting, Business and Finance Journal, 4 (3), 3–22. Search in Google Scholar

Geipele, I., Kauškale, L. (2013). The Influence of Real Estate Market Cycle on the Development in Latvia. Procedia Engineering, 57, 327–333. DOI: 10.1016/j.proeng.2013. Search in Google Scholar

Gelain, P., Lansing, K.J., Natvik, G.J. (2018). Explaining the Boom-Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse-Engineering Approach, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series. Search in Google Scholar

Gibson, H.J., Li, Y. (2013). Opportunities for the United States condominium foreclosure market to provide amenable affordable housing options: The case of Tampa/Hillsborough, Florida. Urbani izziv, 24 (1), 90–106. DOI: 10.5379/urbani-izziv-en-2013-24-01-001.10.5379/urbani-izziv-en-2013-24-01-001 Search in Google Scholar

Glaeser, E.L. (2017). Real Estate Bubbles and Urban development. Asian Development Review, 34 (2), 114–151. DOI: 10.1162/adev_a_00097.10.1162/adev_a_00097 Search in Google Scholar

Greer, G.E., Kolbe, P.T. (2003). Investment Analysis for Real Estate Decisions. 1, 5th edition, DearbornTM Real Estate Education. Search in Google Scholar

Havard, T. (2014). Financial feasibility studies for property development. Theory and practice. London: Routledge. Search in Google Scholar

Henneberry, J. (1987). Property market definition: a fundamental problem. Property Management, 5 (1), 35–42.10.1108/eb006643 Search in Google Scholar

Keim, L.K. (2007). The Fundamentals of Listing and Selling Commercial Real Estate. West Conhohocken: Infinity Publishing. Search in Google Scholar

Kucharska-Stasiak, E. (2016). Ekonomiczny wymiar nieruchomości. Warszawa: PWN. Search in Google Scholar

Land Absorption Study. City of Chico (2018) BAE Urban Economics. Retrieved from: http://www.chico.ca.us/_includes/documents/CityofChico_LandAbsorptionStudy_FINAL_07-24-18.pdf. Search in Google Scholar

Letwin, O. (2018). Independent Review of Build Out Rates. Final Report. Retrieved from: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/752124/Letwin_review_web_version.pdf. Search in Google Scholar

Lipiński, J. (2000). Marketing nieruchomości. Nieruchomości C.H. Beck, 6. Search in Google Scholar

McAllister, P., Nase, I. (2020). The accuracy of consensus real estate forecasts revisited. Journal of Property Research, 37 (2), 147–170. DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2020.1720784.10.1080/09599916.2020.1720784 Search in Google Scholar

Millington, A.F. (2000). Property development. London and New York: Routledge. Search in Google Scholar

Mueller, G., Pevnev, A. (1997). An Analysis of Rental Growth Rates During Different Points in the Real Estate Market Cycle. Florida: The American Real Estate Society Meetings Sarasota. Search in Google Scholar

Mueller, G. (2001). Predicting Long-Term Trends & Market Cycles in Commercial Real Estate. Working Paper #388. Search in Google Scholar

Narodowy Bank Polski (2019). Raport o sytuacji na rynkach nieruchomości mieszkaniowych i komercyjnych w Polsce w 2018 roku. Warszawa. Retrieved from: https://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/rynek_nieruchomosci/raport_2018.pdf. Search in Google Scholar

Novak, L.R. (1996). Market and feasibility studies: a how – to guide. Retrieved from: https://pages.uoregon.edu/rgp/PPPM613/downloads/How%20to%20do%20a%20Market%20Analysis.pdf. Search in Google Scholar

Pivo, G. (2006). Timing Real Estate Cycles. Patient Capital and School Trust Real Estate Programs. Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. Search in Google Scholar

Perera, T., Higgins, D., Wong, W.W. (2018). The evaluation of the Australian office market forecast accuracy. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 36 (3), 259–272. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JPIF-04-2017-0029.10.1108/JPIF-04-2017-0029 Search in Google Scholar

Peiser, R.B., Hamilton, D. (2012). Professional Real Estate Development. Washington: The ULI Guide to the business, Urban Land Institute. Search in Google Scholar

Raslanas, S., Siniak, N., Shavrov, S., Rogova, O., Zinkina, D. (2015). Real estate development. In: A. Kaklauskas, E.K. Zavadskas, R. Dargis, D. Bardauskiené (ed.), Sustainable development of real estate (pp. 127–231). Vilnius: VGTU Press TECHNICA. Search in Google Scholar

Reed, R., Wu, H. (2010). Understanding property cycles in a residential market. Property management, 28 (1), 33–46. DOI: 10.1108/02637471011017163.10.1108/02637471011017163 Search in Google Scholar

Rottke, N., Wernecke, M. (2002). Real Estate Cycles in Germany – Causes, Empirical Analysis and Recommendations for the Management Decision Process. New Zealand: Paper presented at the 8th Conference of the Pacific Rim Real Estate Society 21–23 January 2002 Christchurch. Search in Google Scholar

REAS (2017). Rynek mieszkaniowy w Polsce – I kwartał 2017 r. Warszawa. Retrieved from: http://www.reas.pl/publikacje?page=1#. Search in Google Scholar

Siemińska, E. (2013). Ryzyka inwestowania i finansowania na rynku nieruchomości w kontekście etyki i społecznej odpowiedzialności. Toruń: Wydawnictwo Naukowe Uniwersytetu Mikołaja Kopernika. Search in Google Scholar

Smith, Ch.A, Verma, R., Manrique, J. (2012). Using Historical Employment Data to Forecast Absorption Rates and Rents in the Apartment Market. Real Estate Issue, 37 (2–3), 31–37. Search in Google Scholar

Tse, R., Webb, J. (2003). Models of Office Market Dynamics. Urban Studies, 40 (1), 71–89. DOI: 10.1080/00420980220080171.10.1080/00420980220080171 Search in Google Scholar

Żelazowski, K. (2017). Housing Market Cycles in the Context of Business Cycles. Real Estate Management and Valuation, 25 (3), 5–14. DOI: 10.1515/remav-2017-0017.10.1515/remav-2017-0017 Search in Google Scholar

Articoli consigliati da Trend MD

Pianifica la tua conferenza remota con Sciendo