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Economic impact of the EU Eastern enlargement on New Member States revisited: The role of economic institutions

Jan Hagemejer
Jan Hagemejer
, 
Jan J. Michałek
Jan J. Michałek
 e 
Pavel Svatko
Pavel Svatko
   | 25 lug 2021
Central European Economic Journal's Cover Image
INFORMAZIONI SU QUESTO ARTICOLO
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Pubblicato online: 25 lug 2021
Pagine: 126 - 143
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2021-0008
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© 2021 Jan Hagemejer et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

New Member States GDP per capita versus the counterfactual 6 years and 12 years after accession.
New Member States GDP per capita versus the counterfactual 6 years and 12 years after accession.

Figure A1

New Member States GDP per capita versus the counterfactual (simple model – left, extended model – right)
New Member States GDP per capita versus the counterfactual (simple model – left, extended model – right)

Figure A2

New Member States GDP per capita versus the counterfactual (continued, simple model – left, extended model – right)
New Member States GDP per capita versus the counterfactual (continued, simple model – left, extended model – right)

Figure A3

New Member States GDP per capita versus the counterfactual 15 years after accession
New Member States GDP per capita versus the counterfactual 15 years after accession

Summary statistics for the donor pool

Variable Source Mean SD Min Max
Real GDP per capita PWT 17,589.66 13,757.82 2,289.263 71,831.64
Population growth WDI 0.7860545 0.8181689 −1.523536 2.59392
Real GDP PWT 12.74676 1.597858 9.1772 16.81404
Share of agriculture in VA PWT 8.77402 5.422181 0.6498945 36.4107
Share of industry in VA PWT 30.52559 8.004571 15.34689 59.48079
Investment share in GDP PWT 0.2301817 0.0738198 0.0691244 0.4830763
Secondary enrolment WDI 87.82568 18.7099 36.64821 157.1677
Tertiary enrolment WDI 42.94293 22.58071 3.61141 120.9657
Tax burden Heritage 74.39966 9.964509 37.3 92.8
Business freedom Heritage 68.89915 12.68835 38.7 99.9
Monetary freedom Heritage 71.83525 17.48437 0,00 95.4
Trade freedom Heritage 73.42695 11.92106 17.6 92.4

Macroeconomic implications of accession to the EU: GDP growth rates in 2000–2009 for eight acceding countries (without Bulgaria and Romania)

Scenarios 2000–2009 2000–2004 2005–2009
Baseline scenario (no accession) 3.0 3.1 2.9
Central scenario 4.3 4.0 4.6
Optimistic scenario 5.1 4.0 6.1

Weights of donors in the synthetic counterfactual, simple model

Country Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovak Republic Slovenia Bulgaria Romania
Albania 0 0 0.31 0 0 0 0.34 0 0 0.41
Algeria 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.13 0 0 0
Argentina 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Australia 0 0.15 0.12 0 0 0.15 0 0 0.08 0
Belarus 0 0.05 0 0.68 0 0 0 0 0 0
Brazil 0 0 0 0 0 0.15 0.08 0 0.04 0
Canada 0 0 0 0 0.13 0 0 0 0.01 0
Chile 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
China 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colombia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Indonesia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Israel 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Korea, Rep 0.28 0.20 0 0 0 0 0 0.35 0 0
Malaysia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mexico 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moldova 0 0.59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.60 0
Morocco 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
New Zealand 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Macedonia 0 0 0 0.26 0.76 0.21 0 0.37 0 0
Philippines 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Russia 0 0 0.16 0 0.10 0.49 0 0 0.24 0.56
Switzerland 0.29 0 0.16 0.06 0 0 0.25 0.27 0.03 0
Thailand 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Turkey 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ukraine 0.43 0 0.25 0 0 0 0.20 0 0 0.03
Uruguay 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Weights of donors in the synthetic counterfactual, extended model

Country Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovak Republic Slovenia Bulgaria Romania
Albania 0 0.68 0.09 0 0 0.02 0 0 0 0
Algeria 0 0 0.41 0 0 0.11 0.08 0 0 0
Argentina 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Australia 0 0 0.31 0.02 0 0.18 0 0.23 0 0
Belarus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.12 0.30 0.87
Brazil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.02 0 0
Canada 0.19 0.11 0 0 0.13 0.08 0.05 0.17 0.08 0
Chile 0.22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
China 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.19 0 0.10
Colombia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Indonesia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.11 0 0 0
Israel 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.04 0 0 0
Korea. Rep 0 0.21 0 0.22 0 0 0 0.16 0 0
Malaysia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mexico 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moldova 0 0 0.19 0 0 0.27 0.34 0 0 0
Morocco 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.06 0.03 0
New Zealand 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.26 0 0 0
Macedonia 0 0 0 0.48 0.76 0.03 0.02 0 0.13 0
Philippines 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Russia 0 0 0 0 0.10 0 0 0 0 0
Switzerland 0.22 0 0 0 0 0 0.05 0.05 0 0
Thailand 0.10 0 0 0 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.03
Turkey 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ukraine 0.27 0 0 0.28 0 0.31 0 0 0.46 0
Uruguay 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
eISSN:
2543-6821
Lingua:
Inglese
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Business and Economics, Political Economics, Economic Theory, Systems and Structures, Microeconomics, Macroecomics, Economic Policy
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