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Are subsidies for Polish enterprises effective: empirical results based on panel data

INFORMAZIONI SU QUESTO ARTICOLO

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Fig. 1

Funnel plot for productivity and productivity growth. Source: Own study based on literature review.
Funnel plot for productivity and productivity growth. Source: Own study based on literature review.

Fig. 2

Funnel chart for the size and growth of the enterprise size. Source: Own study based on literature review
Funnel chart for the size and growth of the enterprise size. Source: Own study based on literature review

Estimation of the mean causal effect treatment on treated units (ATT) for Sample 4

VariableATTStandard errorStandard error (bootstrap)Stimulated sampleControl samplet-testBetter balance?Are the results stable?
Nearest-neighbour method (1:1) without replacement
Productivity a year after the subsidy0.0690.0770.0716476470.91No
DProductivityt−1/t+1−0.3330.0520.055647647−0.64
Asset rate growtht/t+1−789,640686,723731,367650650−1.15
ROAt+14,0172,8462,7215545541.41
DROAt−1/t+11,2252,8072,5255545540.44
Nearest-neighbour method(1:1) with replacement
Productivity a year after the subsidy−0.2930.1000.1021066647−0.29Yes
DProductivityt−1/t+10.0400.6640.66010666470.61
Asset rate growtht/t+1−164.064263.881142.8151067650−0.33
ROAt+12.0461.8181.8459195541.13
DROAt−1/t+12.1641.8121.8759195541.19
Nearest neighbour with calliper(0.25′SD) without replacement
Productivity a year after the subsidy0.0590.0820.8166316470.71No
DProductivityt−1/t+10.0020.5310.0556316470.04
Asset rate growtht/t+1−145.804147.512125.131633650−0.99
ROAt+13.8232.9141.9995415541.31No
DROAt−1/t+12.9452.8642.1245415541.03
Nearest neighbour with calliper(0.1) without replacement
Productivity a year after the subsidy0.1120.0790.0846386471.41No
DProductivityt−1/t+1−0.0220.0530.055638647−0.42
Asset rate growtht/t+1−164.339143.685164.803640650−1.14No
ROAt+14.1242.8862.9395465541.43
DROAt−1/t+11.3142.8462.6435465540.46
Kernel matching
Productivity a year after the subsidy−0.0060.0750.0651066647−0.08Yes
DProductivityt−1/t+10.0240.0500.04810666470.49
Asset rate growtht/t+1−82.209149.10991.8291067650−0.55
ROAt+11.5111.7651.6329195540.86
DROAt−1/t+11.6341.7421.7239195540.94
Stratification
Productivity a year after the subsidy0.0010.0740.07310706420.009Yes
DProductivityt−1/t+10.0210.0500.04910706420.411
Asset rate growtht/t+1−97.280102.28797.2561070642−0.951
ROAt+11.6091.6381.87310706420.983
DROAt−1/t+11.7031.6231.58810706421.050

Results of estimations of logit models – probability of receiving a subsidy

VariablesSample 4 (one instalment of the subsidy)Sample 5 (one instalment of the subsidy)Sample 6 (two instalments of the subsidy)
Parameterp-valueParameterp-valueParameterp-value
Added valuet−10.1160.1730.1250.252−0.0720.154
(Added valuet−1)2−0.0130.278−0.01880.2700.0210.061
Sizet−11.2630.0001.3150.0013.9080.000
(Sizet−1)2−0.0530.001−0.0560.002−0.1830.000
Liabilitiest−10.7750.0670.9660.0391.0870.055
Aget−1−0.1250.227−0.1710.131−0.1780.176
Cash flowt−10.01080.0490.0160.0100.0490.109
Sector (base level – industry)
Construction0.6990.0010.7850.0020.8890.014
Other−0.1410.186−0.1230.303−0.0460.768
Constant6.8220.0006.9370.00119.7630.000
Number of observations17201354850
Pseudo R20.0230.0270.035
Balancing propertyFulfilledFulfilledFulfilled
Test statisticsp-valueTest statisticsp-valueTest statisticsp-value
Linktest−1.170.240−1.090.274−0.380.706
Hosmer–Lemeshow test13.630.09210.120.2576.200.624

Basic descriptive statistics of variables from Sample 4

VariableMeanStandard deviationFirst quartileMedianThird quartileMinimumMaximum
Added value
200576,120.4599,897.6719,569.9637,873.5080,821.064,420.79404,733.40
200683,613.87109,236.3021,594.8442,021.2589,475.374,834.65441,146.70
200794,629.00123,088.1024,375.0549,093.20101,819.004,881.37496,364.00
200811,7970.8175,793.3025,224.3350,964.54112,233.95,275.76716,159.30
200983,833.34106,042.8020,632.8039,637.0290,697.105,306.50415,198.40
2010104,954.10142,875.8024,125.2647,695.07110,198.704,654.68568,563.00
Productivity
20051.7771.3660.8251.5112.4160.00711.088
20061.6731.2470.8031.4712.1950.0017.840
20071.7981.4290.7731.5082.3610.0028.223
20081.7851.5490.8061.4542.2800.00112.628
20091.7671.6350.7551.3912.3570.00114.452
20101.7051.5230.7371.4172.1680.00513.670
Asset growth rate
2005/0614.56228.80608.40824.0430241.968
2006/0715.53437.19208.64721.6460335.140
2007/0816.83271.70205.46718.6930586.462
2008/0948.259164.67002.16541.9890496.961
2009/1086.137199.95106.95091.3790575.263
ROA (%)
20059.21210.0422.3936.12911.9570.07049.916
20069.3919.8222.7526.22712.7550.06948.891
20079.89410.3642.7926.580713.1630.05249.187
20089.2119.6672.5005.96812.8660.05944.743
20099.57010.8892.1596.25012.8240.04348.471
20108.5479.4602.3135.57411.2560.04741.475
Size
200510.2661.2989.51210.17811.0202.64615.292
200610.3891.3889.55510.24911.1675.03215.2177
200710.5131.3609.75710.40711.3795.15715.488
200810.6521.3499.79110.54811.4315.80614.777
200910.5251.3169.70510.37611.2505.31515.471
201010.6351.3289.84910.54311.3782.97815.809
Liabilities
20050.0740.14500.0050.08100.794
20060.0750.15300.0040.07100.986
20070.0710.13500.0100.08700.847
20080.0700.13300.0050.08200.884
20090.0800.16000.0070.08300.746
20100.0630.12500.0030.07000.837
Cash flow
20050.1130.1170.0510.0940.16500.686
20060.1290.1080.0620.1040.17900.701
20070.1120.1120.0500.0960.16000.683
20080.0990.1210.0380.0900.15900.810
20090.1060.1370.0400.0930.16100.767
20100.0990.1250.0430.0910.14300.614
Ln(age+1)
20052.5230.4592.3022.5642.7721.0983.555
Age
200510.7656.36871013032

Test results for the effect of publication selection effect

Model of variables associated with the impact of subsidies on:Constant1/Sei
Estimatetp-valueEstimatetp-value
Productivity−0.53−1.860.067−0.00−3.560.001
Productivity growth0.150.270.7910.021.060.294
Company size0.867.910.0000.1326.030.000
Company size growth3.0210.720.0000.072.890.005

ATT estimates for Sample 5

VariableATTStandard errorStandard error (bootstrap)Stimulated sampleControl sampleStudent’s t-testBetter balance?Are the results stable?
Nearest-neighbour method (1:1) without replacement
Productivityt+10.0690.0860.0975125120.81No
Productivityt+2−0.0960.0960.099510510−1.00
DProductivityt−1/t+1−0.0280.0620.065512512−0.46
DProductivityt−1/t+2−0.1830.0740.071510510−2.46No
Asset growth ratet/t+1−37.10016.13115.791513513−2.30No
Asset growth ratet+1/t+29.97134.77335.4965135130.29
ROAt+10.8880.9981.1255135130.89
ROAt+21.1560.7110.8104124121.64No
DROAt−1/t+1−1.7770.8260.815513513−2.15No
DROAt−1/t+2−2.3030.7910.883412412−2.91No
Nearest-neighbour method (1:1) with replacement
Productivityt+10.0390.1090.0988375120.36Yes
Productivityt+2−0.1650.1400.132836510−1.18
DProductivityt−1/t+10.0800.0750.0788375121.06
DProductivityt−1/t+2−0.1120.1110.105836510−1.00
Asset growth ratet/t+1−10.78818.79520.691838513−0.57
Asset growth ratet+1/t+246.29440.20229.2008385131.15
ROAt+10.8661,2421,0518385130.70
ROAt+2−0.2680.8290.678696412−0.32
DROAt–1/t+10,8171,0091,0538385130.81
DROAt−1/t+2−0,0340.9230.809696412−0.04
Nearest neighbour with calliper (0.25′SD) without replacement
Productivityt+1−0.0040.0890.082498512−0.04Yes
Productivityt+2−0.1570.1020.102496510−1.54
DProductivityt−1/t+1−0.0150.0630.064498512−0.23
DProductivityt−1/t+2−0.1610.0800.084496510−2.02No
Asset growth ratet/t+1−16.42616.71117.092498513−0.98Yes
Asset growth ratet+1/t+24.96733.53235.6134985130.15
ROAt+10.0941.0261.0544985130.09
ROAt+2−0.2450.6930.726400412−0.35
DROAt−1/t+1−0.4760.8110.780498513−0.59
DROAt−1/t+2−1.2220.7600.700400412−1.61No
Nearest neighbour with calliper (0.1) without replacement
Productivityt+10.0400.0860.0935045120.47No
Productivityt+2−0.1560.0950.102502510−1.64No
DProductivityt−1/t+1−0.0430.0620.056504512−0.69
DProductivityt−1/t+2−0.2320.0750.076502510−3.07No
Asset growth ratet/t+1−27.87515.22515.800504513−1.83No
Asset growth ratet+1/t+238.18035.76737.6865045131.07
ROAt+10.8071.0071.0215045130.80
ROAt+21.1410.7230.6934054121.58No
DROAt−1/t+1−2.0550.8290.957504513−2.48No
DROAt−1/t+2−2.6300.7910.787405412−3.32No
Kernel matching
Productivityt+10.0060.0840.0768375120.07Yes
Productivityt+2−0.1720.0960.076836510−1.79Yes
DProductivityt−1/t+10.0170.0590.0618375120.28
DProductivityt−1/t+2−0.1520.0740.070836510−2.05Yes
Asset growth ratet/t+1−15.01315.63215.744838513−0.96
Asset growth ratet+1/t+235.05131.37227.8298385131.12
ROAt+1−0.1040.9460.867838513−0.11
ROAt+2−0.9190.6370.578696412−1.44
DROAt−1/t+1−0.2090.7600.733838513−0.27
DROAt−1/t+2−1.0420.6890.685696412−1.51
Stratification
Productivityt+1−0.0010.0800.089831515−0.014Yes
Productivityt+2−0.1850.0900.098831515−2.068
DProductivityt−1/t+10.0070.0590.0678315150.112
DProductivityt−1/t+2−0.1720.0690.066831515−2.492
Asset growth ratet/t+1−17.19915.67514.735831515−1.097
Asset growth ratet+1/t+222.34030.03533.4968315150.744
ROAt+12.2302.0691.9678315151.078
ROAt+2−0.5310.679831515−0.782
DROAt−1/t+11.6082.0402.0338315150.788
DROAt−1/t+2−0.9800.764831515−1.284

Estimates of the impact of subsidies on the level and increase in productivity and size of the company in selected empirical studies

ArticleTime period of the sampleCountryParametersNumber of regressions
Productivity
Harris and Trainor (2005)1983–1998North Ireland(−1.735, 1.013)7
Girma et al. (2007)1992–1998Ireland(0.0199, 0.0668)2
Gabriele, Zamarian and Zaninotto (2006)1998–2003Italy(5.33, 17.51)3
Criscuolo et al. (2012)1986–2004Great Britain(−0.09, 0.026)6
Koski and Pajarinen (2013)2003–2010Finland(−0.064, 0.034)18
Cerqua and Pellegrini (2014)1995–2001Italy(−8.06, −2.14)18
Sissoko (2013)1998–2006France(0.151, 0.2)6
Productivity growth
Bergström (2000)1987–1993Sweden(−4.57, 1.93)8
Duch et al. (2007)2000–2002Spain(0.011, 0.1325)8
Bernini and Pellegrini (2011)1995–2003Italy(−0.29, 0.284)56
Sissoko (2013)1998–2006France(0.143, 0.215)2
Company size
Adorno, Bernini and Pellegrini (2007)1996–2000Italy(8.89, 39.89)12
Gabriele et al. (2006)1998–2003Italy(4.50, 5.32)3
Ankarhem et al. (2009)1990–1999Sweden(−53.46, 107.15)78
Criscuolo et al. (2012)1986–2004Great Britain(−0.07, 0.553)12
Sissoko (2013)1998–2006France0.1681
Company size growth
Roper and Hewitt-Dundas (1999)1991–1995Ireland, North Ireland(−0.015, 0.201)4
Tzelepis and Skuras (2004)1982–1996Greece0.0831
Gabriele et al. (2006)1998–2003Italy(6.13, 10.07)3
Bernini and Pellegrini (2011)1995–2003Italy(0.28, 0.538)16
Cerqua and Pellegrini (2014)1995–2001Italy(4.45, 8.35)36

ATT estimates for Sample 6

VariableATTStandard errorStandard error (bootstrap)Stimulated sampleControl sampleStudent’s t-testBetter balance?Are the results stable?
Nearest-neighbour method (1:1) without replacement
Productivityt+10.1120.1150.1253023020.98No
DProductivityt−1/t+1−0.1120.0900.084302302−1.24
Asset growth ratet/t+1−87.85055.62349.382307307−1.58Yes
ROAt+1−14.99418.08520.287307307−0.83
DROAt−1/t+1−17.20317.71517.676307307−0.97
Nearest-neighbour method (1:1) with replacement
Productivityt+10.0990.1400.1325373020.71Yes
DProductivityt−1/t+10.0540.1040.0945373020.52
Asset growth ratet/t+1−23.802100.15045.168537307−0.24
ROAt+12.5145.5154.0765373070.46
DROAt−1/t+12.8865.5673.6195373070.52
Nearest neighbour with calliper (0.25′SD) without replacement
Productivityt+10.9730.1250.1222863020.78Yes
DProductivityt−1/t+1−0.0010.10260.114286302−0.01
Asset growth ratet/t+1−89.56259.59447.787288307−1.50Yes
ROAt+11.1173.4033.2732883070.33
DROAt−1/t+10.7753.4743.0302883070.22
Nearest neighbour with calliper (0.1) without replacement
Productivityt+10.1180.1180.1232993021.57No
DProductivityt−1/t+1−0.0460.0930.094299302−0.49
Asset growth ratet/t+1−63.818−64.13453.133304307−1.00
ROAt+12.0963.2383.3863043070.65
DROAt−1/t+1−0.4483.3043.275304307−0.14
Kernel matching
Productivityt+10.0440.1090.1025373020.40Yes
DProductivityt−1/t+1−0.1960.0840.092537302−0.23
Asset growth ratet/t+1−19.33662.62033.639537302−0.31
ROAt+12.4113.3744.1335373070.71
DROAt−1/t+12.5333.4303.4285373070.74
Stratification
Productivityt+10.0930.1130.1135423020.819Yes
DProductivityt−1/t+1−0.0270.0940.093542302−0.288
Asset growth ratet/t+1−21.84631.75835.329542302−0.688
ROAt+11.9453.3933.2315423020.573
DROAt−1/t+12.1963.4463.4375423020.637

Patterns

200520062007200820092010Number
Sample 4 – the stimulus is a subsidy received in 1 year
010xxx400
x010xx231
xx010x212
xxx010230
Σ1,073
000xxx250
x000xx113
xx000x150
xxx000137
Σ650
Sample 5 – the stimulus is a subsidy received in 1 year
010xxx400
x010xx231
xx010x212
Σ843
000xxx250
x000xx113
xx000x150
Σ513
Sample 6 – the stimulus is a subsidy received in 2 subsequent years
0110xx251
x0110x166
xx0110134
Σ551
0000xx133
x0000x91
xx000090
Σ314

Basic statistics of descriptive variables from Sample 4 broken down by subsidised and non-subsidised companies

VariableMeanStandard deviationFirst quartileMedianThird quartileMinimumMaximum
Added value
A year before the subsidy079,803.68112,976.0016,537.9436,342.8782,381.983,284.50455,219.70
188,695.01112,648.0021,720.7544,171.46102,177.203,284.50455,219.70
A year after the subsidy081,319.56117,916.1016,537.9436,342.8782,381.983,818.98484,195.40
190,074.90117,138.5021,720.7544,171.46102,177.203,818.98484,195.40
Productivity
A year before the subsidy01.74701.4480.7211.4372.3360.00111.088
11.76901.3660.8851.5112.3030.00112.628
A year after the subsidy01.6901.4250.6451.4282.3150.00310.323
11.7791.7570.8231.4122.2500.00135.423
ROA (%)
A year before the subsidy08.6049.7602.0325.23211.9870.00364.416
19.4899.9082.8406.53912.6090.00177.003
A year after the subsidy05.4798.9430.2793.67710.653026.504
15.8149.1850.4694.47310.568026.504
Size
A year before the subsidy010.3391.4579.50310.24911.1542.64615.488
110.4851.2739.68710.36211.2546.79115.446
A year after the subsidy010.4741.4799.60210.35111.3253.24717.646
110.6081.2829.80710.50611.3553.33615.446
Liabilities
A year before the subsidy00.0690.13800.0040.07100.794
10.0750.14500.0060.08200.794
A year after the subsidy00.0630.14100.0020.05601.309
10.0830.15500.0090.09801.142
Cash flow
A year before the subsidy00.1320.0960.0650.1050.1720.0030.506
10.1400.0960.0720.1170.1850.0020.507
A year after the subsidy00.1190.0970.0480.0930.1660.0030.498
10.1290.0940.0540.1020.1610.0120.457
Ln(age+1)
A year before the subsidy02.4760.5332.1972.5642.77203.526
12.4390.5292.1972.4842.70803.555
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