<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

<p>As one of the participants in the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC), we submitted two data files. One is 365 days’ predictions into the future for Earth orientation parameters (EOP) (the position parameters Px and Py, the time parameters UT1-UTC and length of day changes ΔLOD), processed by the traditional least-square and autoregressive (LS + AR) model. Another is 90 days’ predictions by the combined least-square and convolution method (LS + Convolution), with effective angular momentum (EAM) from Earth System Modelling GeoForschungsZentrum in Potsdam (ESMGFZ). Results showed that the LS + Convolution method performed better than the LS + AR model in short-term EOP predictions within 10 days, while the traditional LS + AR model presented higher accuracy in medium-term predictions over 10–90 days. Furthermore, based on the climate change information in Earth’s rotation (mainly in the interannual variations of LOD), the climate change indicators are investigated with ΔLOD observations and long-term predictions. After two intermediate La Nina events were detected in the climate-related ΔLOD observations during the period of 2020–2022, another stronger La Nina phenomenon is indicated in the climate-related ΔLOD long-term predictions.</p>
</abstract>

As one of the participants in the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC), we submitted two data files. One is 365 days’ predictions into the future for Earth orientation parameters (EOP) (the position parameters Px and Py, the time parameters UT1-UTC and length of day changes ΔLOD), processed by the traditional least-square and autoregressive (LS + AR) model. Another is 90 days’ predictions by the combined least-square and convolution method (LS + Convolution), with effective angular momentum (EAM) from Earth System Modelling GeoForschungsZentrum in Potsdam (ESMGFZ). Results showed that the LS + Convolution method performed better than the LS + AR model in short-term EOP predictions within 10 days, while the traditional LS + AR model presented higher accuracy in medium-term predictions over 10–90 days. Furthermore, based on the climate change information in Earth’s rotation (mainly in the interannual variations of LOD), the climate change indicators are investigated with ΔLOD observations and long-term predictions. After two intermediate La Nina events were detected in the climate-related ΔLOD observations during the period of 2020–2022, another stronger La Nina phenomenon is indicated in the climate-related ΔLOD long-term predictions.

Earth Rotation Parameters Prediction and Climate Change Indicators in it

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Artificial Satellites

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

{"article-title":"Earth Rotation Parameters Prediction and Climate Change Indicators in it"}

As one of the participants in the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC), we submitted two data files. One is 365...

Forecast span (days)	Px (mas)		Py (mas)		UT1-UTC (ms)
Forecast span (days)	LS + AR	LS + CV	LS + AR	LS + CV	LS + AR	LS + CV
1	0.70	0.058	0.87	0.84	0.20	0.18
2	1.14	1.05	1.05	1.00	0.35	0.32
3	1.61	1.54	1.32	1.27	0.50	0.47
4	2.12	2.11	1.50	1.45	0.64	0.60
5	2.54	2.54	1.67	1.64	0.76	0.71
6	2.84	2.83	1.83	1.81	0.86	0.82
7	3.02	3.02	1.88	1.86	0.91	0.89
8	3.22	3.22	1.93	1.92	0.97	0.95
9	3.44	3.43	2.01	2.01	1.03	1.01
10	3.75	3.74	2.14	2.13	1.10	1.07
20	4.87	5.15	3.01	3.06	2.83	2.90
30	5.44	5.80	3.98	4.10	4.18	4.40
40	5.35	5.85	5.23	5.53	5.98	6.46
50	4.47	5.51	6.47	7.08	8.03	8.72
60	4.32	4.82	7.33	8.12	9.98	10.85
70	5.27	5.44	8.17	9.08	11.63	12.47
80	6.00	6.22	9.09	10.04	13.20	14.18
90	6.10	6.13	9.52	10.32	15.13	16.04

Earth Rotation Parameters Prediction and Climate Change Indicators in it

Pubblicato online: 05 gen 2023

Pagine: 262 - 273

Ricevuto: 28 giu 2022

Accettato: 16 ago 2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/arsa-2022-0023

Parole chiave
EOP prediction, effective angular momentum, interannual ΔLOD, climate change indicators

© 2022 Xueqing Xu et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figure 3.

Figure 4.

RMSE of different EOP forecast spans obtained by the LS + AR and LS + CV methods over 07.2021–03.2022

Earth Rotation Parameters Prediction and Climate Change Indicators in it

Pubblicato online: 05 gen 2023

Pagine: 262 - 273

Ricevuto: 28 giu 2022

Accettato: 16 ago 2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/arsa-2022-0023

Parole chiaveEOP prediction, effective angular momentum, interannual ΔLOD, climate change indicators

© 2022 Xueqing Xu et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figure 3.

Figure 4.

RMSE of different EOP forecast spans obtained by the LS + AR and LS + CV methods over 07.2021–03.2022

Parole chiave
EOP prediction, effective angular momentum, interannual ΔLOD, climate change indicators