New media hotspot mass emergencies refer to emergencies caused by contradictions among the people or caused by improper handling. Actively preventing, resolving, and properly handling various mass emergencies has become a hot issue that governments at all levels must focus on solving.
Differential game theory is a new way of thinking for solving coordinated control problems. This theory originated from the research on the pursuit and escape of the two sides in the military confrontation carried out by the US Air Force in the 1950s. It is a combination of optimal control and game theory . The algorithm has been used in more and more fields such as economics, management, and environmental science. Most of the research on differential games is concentrated on advertising. Among them, academia first proposed the dynamic advertising competition model. Some scholars have proposed three kinds of equilibrium under the linear objective function. Some scholars have modified the original model by changing the dynamic equation of the system. Some scholars have proposed a differential game approach to consider IT constraints in the e-retail industry.
Differential game is a dynamic game in which players participate in uninterrupted time. The time difference for each stage is narrowed down to the minimum limit. This is in line with the characteristics of repetition, continuity, and a long cycle of mass emergencies. Therefore, this paper constructs a differential game model for an emergency response to mass incidents based on Kumar's research on the e-commerce enterprise advertising optimization model and other related literature . We strive to achieve the goal of minimizing the total social loss through economic subsidies, taking into account the government's use of police force and the degree of social legality.
The basic assumptions and definitions of this paper are as follows:
At the time If an event occurs randomly and independently with fixed intensity Legal thinking and disposal methods have become an important way to resolve social conflicts. According to the requirement of “improving the ability of leading cadres to use the rule of law thinking and the rule of law to resolve conflicts and maintain stability,” the degree of the social legal system at the time
At the time
If an event occurs randomly and independently with fixed intensity
Legal thinking and disposal methods have become an important way to resolve social conflicts. According to the requirement of “improving the ability of leading cadres to use the rule of law thinking and the rule of law to resolve conflicts and maintain stability,” the degree of the social legal system at the time
The number of imitators depends on the size of the potential group that could become a protest crowd . The parameter represents the imitation ratio
The above formula is stable if and only when the social rule of law is greater than the aggregated population in the total local population. So the percentage of dropouts is always positive . According to the Vidale-Wolfe model, the dynamic equation of the system is
The objective function is the minimum sum of the social losses caused by mass events such as protest marches and the government's economic subsidies to appease the gathering crowd:
Usually, the current Hamiltonian value is calculated first:
This paper mainly studies the case of time
From the necessary conditions of Pontrayagin, it can be seen that the following formula holds
We bring Equation (9) into Equation (7) to get:
Proof: Rewrite formula (11) into the following formula
Therefore, when the above formula holds,
Theorem 1 shows that when
Therefore, in the process of emergency response to mass incidents, it is necessary to intervene as soon as possible in the budding state when the protest crowd is small. At this stage, the police force is deployed to intervene with greater intensity. At the same time, the amount of economic compensation for reasonable economic interests can effectively resolve mass incidents.
Proof: Similarly, if the denominator part is less than 0, then (
Theorem 2 shows that when
When mass incidents are in the outbreak or spread period, if the local government simply takes measures to increase police deployment, it will easily lead to more extreme emotions among the protesters. This could easily lead to further deterioration of the situation. Since the protesters have put forward too many interest demands, it is not helpful for the local government to provide economic subsidies to ease the development of the situation. Therefore, the local government should take legal measures to punish a very small number of extremist lawbreakers . At the same time, the police need to deploy the police force scientifically to control the expansion of the situation. At the same time, comprehensive governance methods such as dividing and ruling for protesters with different demands are also needed.
Because mass emergencies are socially sensitive, unreproducible, and emergent, the statistics on such events are lacking . We visualize the changes in the relevant parameters in the above theorem. Parameters include the appeasement rate, imitation efficiency, and the impact of changes in social losses per unit time caused by protesters on the proportion of gathering crowds in the total local population. When we choose
Figure 1 shows the relationship between the proportion
Figure 2 shows the relationship between the proportion
Figure 3 shows the relationship between the proportion of aggregated people in the local population
Figure 4 shows the relationship between the local government's police force deployment intensity
When the proportion of the gathering crowd in the total local population is high, the higher the local government's police force deployment, the higher the proportion of the gathering crowd in the total population. At this time, the optimal economic subsidy used by the government to appease the crowd is less. When the number of people participating in mass incidents is relatively large, if the government deploys fewer police forces in advance, the mass incidents will not intensify. At this time, the government paid a high amount of economic subsidies to “let things go.” If the government arranges a higher level of police deployment in advance, it will intensify the conflict. This will lead to an increase in the number of crowds gathered. The government can’t provide high economic subsidies under this circumstance . In areas with a high degree of the social rule of law, once a problem that may lead to mass incidents occurs, many prioritize solving it through legal means. Under the same conditions, the proportion of aggregated people in the total population will be reduced. In economically developed areas, mass incidents cause larger unit losses, and more people gather to participate in mass incidents to seek solutions to the incident. When the proportion of the gathering crowd in the total local population is low, the higher the local government's police force deployment, the lower the proportion of the gathering crowd in the total population. At this time, the more optimal economic subsidies the government uses to appease the gathering crowd. When the number of people participating in mass events is small, if the government arranges a higher degree of police force deployment in advance, it will have a greater deterrent effect on the participating people. The government can solve mass incidents without providing higher economic compensation. The government's pre-arranged police deployment is low. Although the number of gatherings is small, it will still have a greater impact on the government and cause greater social problems. To avoid the emergence of larger social problems, the government should provide higher economic compensation for the gathering of the masses. Through this method, the economic demands of the gathering masses are met. Public events in areas with a high degree of the social rule of law will lead to dissatisfaction among more people. Social losses per unit caused by mass incidents are relatively small in economically impoverished areas. The local government will not pay attention to the incidents of a small number of gathering people. The gathering people will spontaneously give up their participation in the incident when they find that they have not attracted the government's attention. Therefore, when making decisions, the local government should comprehensively consider the degree of the local social legal system, the follow-up rate of mass incidents, and the government's appeasement rate. Governments make different decisions according to different situations.
Properly handling mass emergencies is important for the government to strengthen and innovate social management. This paper considers that the government will adopt two methods of police force deployment and economic subsidies to achieve the smallest social loss. We characterize events as time-continuous games by constructing a differential game model. Economic subsidies can alleviate the dissatisfaction of the gathering crowd to a certain extent. Based on the social rule of law and the deployment of the local government police force, this paper explores how the government can efficiently handle mass incidents. This paper studies two government means providing economic subsidies and deploying police force. In future research, we can enrich the government's means of dealing with mass incidents. In addition, the research in this paper applies to mass emergencies and has reference significance for related issues such as environmental governance and credit risk.
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