Data Visualization Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic Situation

When we see the confirmed cases in worldwide, it just look like exponential growth curve. The number is increasing very rapidly especially recently. As a further matter, daily new confirmed cases started not increasing from April 4. After that, flat trend continues so far, as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1.

Moreover, when we check the growth in log-scale below figure, we can see that the speed of confirmed cases growth rate slightly increases when compared with the beginning of March and end of March. In spite of the Lockdown policy in Europe or US, the number is still increasing rapidly, as shown in Figure2.

Figure 2.

It looks like fatalities curve is just shifted the confirmed curve to below in log-scale, which means mortality rate is almost constant. We see that mortality rate is kept almost 3%, however it is slightly increasing gradually to go over 7% at the end of April. Europe & US has more seriously infected by Coronavirus recently, and mortality rate is high in these regions, as shown in Figure 3. It might be because when too many people get coronavirus, the country cannot provide enough medical treatment.

Figure 3.

There are 187 countries in the dataset. How’s the distribution of number of confirmed cases by country? It is difficult to see all countries so let’s check top countries as shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4.

Now US, Italy and Spain has more confirmed cases than China, and we can see many Europe countries in the top. Korea also appears in relatively top despite of its population, this is because Korea executes inspection check aggressively.

Let’s check these major country’s growth by date.

As we can see, Coronavirus hit China at first but its trend is slowing down in March which is good news. Bad news is 2nd wave comes to Europe (Italy, Spain, Germany, France, UK) at March. But more sadly 3rd wave now comes to US, whose growth rate is much faster than China, or even Europe. Its main spread starts from middle of March and its speed is faster than Italy. Now US seems to be in the most serious situation in terms of both total number and spread speed. Now let’s see the confirmed cases for the top 30 countries, as shown in Figure 5.

Figure 5.

In terms of number of fatalities, Europe & US are serious situation now, as shown in Figure 6. Many countries have more fatalities than China now, including US, Italy, Spain, France, UK, Iran Belgium, Germany, Brazil, Netherlands. US’s spread speed is the fastest, US’s fatality cases become top1 on Apr 10th.

Figure 6.

Now let’s see mortality rate by country, as shown in Figure 7.

Figure 7.

Italy is the most serious situation, whose mortality rate is over 10% as of 2020/3/28.We can also find countries from all over the world when we see top mortality rate countries, as shown in Figure 7. Iran/Iraq from Middle East, Philippines & Indonesia from tropical areas. Spain, Netherlands, France, and UK form Europe etc. It shows this coronavirus is really worldwide pandemic.

The countries whose mortality rate is low are shown in Figure 8.

Figure 8.

By investigating the difference between above & below countries, we might be able to figure out what is the cause which leads death.

Be careful that there may be a case that these country’s mortality rate is low due to these country does not report/measure fatality cases properly.

Let’s see number of confirmed cases on map. Again we can see Europe, US, Middle East (Turkey, Iran) and Asia (China, Korea) are red, as shown in Figure 9.

Figure 9.

The number of fatalities on map is shown as Figure 10 and the mortality rate map is shown as Figure 11.

Figure 10.

Figure 11.

When we see mortality rate on map, we see Europe (especially Italy) is high. Also we notice Middle East (Iran, Iraq) is high. When we see tropical area, I wonder why Philippines and Indonesia are high while other countries (Malaysia, Thai, Vietnam, as well as Australia) are low. For Asian region, Korea’s mortality rate is lower than China or Japan, I guess this is due to the fact that number of inspection is quite many in Korea[9-10].

From the mortality rate map, it seems that mortality rate is especially high in Europe region, compared to US or Asia.

Why mortality rate is different among country? What kind of hint is hidden in this map? Especially mortality rate is high in Europe and US, is there some reasons? There is one interesting hypothesis that BCG vaccination[11].

Let’s see the DAILY new cases trend as shown in Figure12.

Figure 12.

We find from the figure 12:

As we can see, the spread is fastest in US now, at the end of March. Let’s see in detail what is going on in US. When we see inside of the US, we can see only New York, and its neighbour New Jersey dominates its spread and are in serious situation. The number of New York confirmed cases is over 50k, while other states are less than about 5k confirmed cases, as shown in Figure 13.

Figure 13.

Mortality rate in New York seems not high, around 2% for now, as shown in Figure 14.

Figure 14.

All state is US got affected from middle of March, and now growing exponentially. In New York, less than 1k people are confirmed on March 16, but more than 50k people are confirmed on March 30. 50 times explosion in 2 weeks! The confirmed cases by state in US is show in Figure 15.

Figure 15.

When we look into the Europe, its Northern & Eastern areas are relatively better situation compared to Eastern & Southern areas. The map of European Countries with Confirmed Cases is shown as Figure 16 and Figure 17.

Figure 16.

Figure 17.

Especially Italy, Spain, German, France, UK are in more serious situation. Number of confirmed cases rapidly increasing in Russia now (as of May 1), Russia is now potentially very dangerous situation.

When we check daily new cases in Europe(as shown in Figure 18), we notice:

Figure 18.

In Asia, China & Iran have many confirmed cases, followed by South Korea & Turkey. Asian Countries with Confirmed Cases is as shown in Figure 19.

Figure 19.

The coronavirus hit Asia in early phase, how is the situation now?

China & Korea is already in decreasing phase. Unlike China or Korea, daily new confirmed cases were kept increasing on March or April, especially in Iran or Japan. But the number is started to decrease now on these country as well, as shown in Figure 20.

Figure 20.