Journal & Issues

Volume 33 (2023): Issue 1 (March 2023)

Volume 32 (2022): Issue 4 (December 2022)

Volume 32 (2022): Issue 3 (September 2022)

Volume 32 (2022): Issue 2 (June 2022)

Volume 32 (2022): Issue 1 (March 2022)

Volume 31 (2021): Issue 4 (December 2021)

Volume 31 (2021): Issue 3 (September 2021)

Volume 31 (2021): Issue 2 (June 2021)

Volume 31 (2021): Issue 1 (March 2021)

Volume 30 (2020): Issue 4 (December 2020)

Volume 30 (2020): Issue 3 (September 2020)

Volume 30 (2020): Issue 2 (June 2020)

Volume 30 (2020): Issue 1 (March 2020)

Volume 29 (2019): Issue 4 (December 2019)

Volume 29 (2019): Issue 3 (September 2019)

Volume 29 (2019): Issue 2 (June 2019)

Volume 29 (2019): Issue 1 (March 2019)

Volume 28 (2018): Issue 4 (December 2018)

Volume 28 (2018): Issue 3 (September 2018)

Volume 28 (2018): Issue 2 (June 2018)

Volume 28 (2018): Issue 1 (March 2018)

Volume 27 (2017): Issue 4 (December 2017)

Volume 27 (2017): Issue 3 (September 2017)

Volume 27 (2017): Issue 2 (June 2017)

Volume 27 (2017): Issue 1 (April 2017)

Volume 26 (2016): Issue 4 (November 2016)

Volume 26 (2016): Issue 3 (September 2016)

Volume 26 (2016): Issue 2 (June 2016)

Volume 26 (2016): Issue 1 (March 2016)

Volume 25 (2015): Issue 4 (November 2015)

Volume 25 (2015): Issue 3 (August 2015)

Volume 25 (2015): Issue 2 (July 2015)

Volume 25 (2015): Issue 1 (May 2015)

Journal Details
Format
Journal
eISSN
2285-3065
First Published
30 Mar 2015
Publication timeframe
4 times per year
Languages
English

Search

Volume 32 (2022): Issue 1 (March 2022)

Journal Details
Format
Journal
eISSN
2285-3065
First Published
30 Mar 2015
Publication timeframe
4 times per year
Languages
English

Search

5 Articles
Open Access

Theoretical and empirical underpinnings regarding stock market forecasts and predictions

Published Online: 24 Jan 2022
Page range: 1 - 19

Abstract

Abstract

Current theories support an inverse relationship between the expected return on investment and the associated risk. The DCF valuation method highlights the fact that the value of the company is given by the ratio between the excess cash (at the numerator) and the risk assimilated by the capitalization rate (at the denominator). The modern portfolio theory MPT considers that the proportion of recommended securities is on a parabola in mean-variance space, the risk being assimilated to uncertainty. Practitioners assess the target and the risk (take profit/stop loss) based on the methods of technical analysis. We appreciate that these theories are divergent from each other, disconnected and therefore difficult to unify. Our approach, based on the probabilities associated with each level of future quotations, eliminates the disadvantages of current theories. The answer found is to try to establish as realistically as possible what the chances are that, over a certain period of time, a title will have a certain quotation (or be in a certain range). For reasons somewhat similar to those of sports betting, the conclusion that emerges from the article is that this approach, if well developed, gives superior results to those currently used. In subsequent studies, forecasting methods are to be developed, because we consider them the most important in the investment process.

Keywords

  • Valuation
  • Modern Portfolio Theory
  • Technical and Fundamental Analysis
  • Financial Bets
  • Target Probability

JEL Classification

  • G11
  • G17
  • D53
Open Access

Impact of monetary policy transmission mechanism in West African countries

Published Online: 24 Jan 2022
Page range: 20 - 42

Abstract

Abstract

The study analyzed the impact of monetary policy shocks on economic growth in 12 countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), using quarterly data from 1980(1) to 2017(4). We employed a Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive (Panel SVAR) for the modeling of monetary policy transmission shock in the segregated sub-regions of WAMZ and WAEMU. The key results suggest that fluctuations of the monetary policy do not have significant effects on the economic growth but significantly impact the general price level. Moreover, the study finds that the exchange rate is persistently a vital mechanism that significantly influences the variables of the real economy. Our estimates further suggest that there is idiosyncratic evidence found in the results, which is the anomaly of the Price puzzle.

Keywords

  • Economic growth
  • ECOWAS
  • Monetary policy shocks
  • and Panel SVAR

JEL Classification

  • C01
  • E52
  • E58
Open Access

Impact of Covid-19 pandemic on household income: results of a survey of the economically active population

Published Online: 24 Jan 2022
Page range: 43 - 57

Abstract

Abstract

The aim of the study is to assess the current impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the level of household income in modern national economies according to data for 2020. The assessment of five indicators that characterize the opinions of adults living in different countries about a strong decrease, a small decrease, preservation, a small increase and a strong increase in their income in 2020 was considered. The initial data were the results of a survey of the economically active population in 43 countries, in the process of implementing the Global Entrepreneurship Monitoring project. The five indicators were evaluated using the density functions of the normal distribution. It is proved that for the majority (53%) of households, due to the pandemic, there was a decrease in household income. It shows the preservation of income in a significant (40%) number of households in the countries under consideration. It is shown that the increase in income in 2020 was observed only in a small number (less than 4%) of households. It is proved that the values of each of the five indicators under consideration had a significant differentiation by country. The results of our work have a certain theoretical and practical significance for governments and the economically active population. The methodological approach presented in the article can be used to assess the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on household income in 2021.

Keywords

  • Covid-19 pandemic
  • income
  • households
  • economically active population
  • adults
  • functions of normal distribution

JEL Classification

  • C31
  • D14
  • H31
Open Access

Where do real output shocks to Nigeria mainly emanate from? Empirical analysis of Nigeria-China-India-USA economic interactions

Published Online: 24 Jan 2022
Page range: 58 - 77

Abstract

Abstract

This study investigated Nigeria's economic interactions with China, India, and the USA with a view to identifying the main source of real output shock to Nigeria in the period 1981Q1-2019Q4. The analysis followed the network approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2014), which uses the size and direction of normalized generalized forecast error variance decompositions (NGFEVD) of a vector error correction model to track shock propagation among economic entities. The results indicate that China and India are net transmitters of real output shocks to Nigeria. The results also indicate that Nigeria is a net real output shock receiver. The study concludes that Nigerian policymakers should evolve policies that can insulate the economy against real output shock heatwaves from around the world, especially China and India. Such policies should mainly target the diversification of the economy such that crude oil will no longer be the only major source of revenue.

Keywords

  • Output Shock Transmission
  • Network Approach
  • VAR Model
  • Nigeria

JEL Classification

  • F02
  • C32
  • P16
  • N17
Open Access

The Environmental Kuznets Curve revisited: economic complexity and ecological footprint in the most complex economies of the world

Published Online: 24 Jan 2022
Page range: 78 - 99

Abstract

Abstract

The paper examines the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model in the panel of the most complex economies in the world by considering the ecological footprint as an indicator of environmental degradation and economic complexity - as a variable of interest and expression of structural changes in the economy. The study includes the first 48 complex economies in the world, with positive averages of the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) for 1995-2017. The model of cointegrating polynomial regression (CPR) includes also variables with impact on ecological footprints such as globalization, energy intensity and urbanization. The EKC model is validated in the panel of the 48 complex economies, suggesting that these countries have already reached a development stage enabling them to curb the increasing pollution expressed by ecological footprint. Globalization has a mitigating effect while urbanization and energy intensity have an extension effect on ecological footprint. Policy implications are also included.

Keywords

  • ecological footprint
  • economic complexity
  • panel data
  • EKC

JEL Classification

  • Q5
  • Q56
  • P48
  • L16
  • O13
  • C33
  • F64
5 Articles
Open Access

Theoretical and empirical underpinnings regarding stock market forecasts and predictions

Published Online: 24 Jan 2022
Page range: 1 - 19

Abstract

Abstract

Current theories support an inverse relationship between the expected return on investment and the associated risk. The DCF valuation method highlights the fact that the value of the company is given by the ratio between the excess cash (at the numerator) and the risk assimilated by the capitalization rate (at the denominator). The modern portfolio theory MPT considers that the proportion of recommended securities is on a parabola in mean-variance space, the risk being assimilated to uncertainty. Practitioners assess the target and the risk (take profit/stop loss) based on the methods of technical analysis. We appreciate that these theories are divergent from each other, disconnected and therefore difficult to unify. Our approach, based on the probabilities associated with each level of future quotations, eliminates the disadvantages of current theories. The answer found is to try to establish as realistically as possible what the chances are that, over a certain period of time, a title will have a certain quotation (or be in a certain range). For reasons somewhat similar to those of sports betting, the conclusion that emerges from the article is that this approach, if well developed, gives superior results to those currently used. In subsequent studies, forecasting methods are to be developed, because we consider them the most important in the investment process.

Keywords

  • Valuation
  • Modern Portfolio Theory
  • Technical and Fundamental Analysis
  • Financial Bets
  • Target Probability

JEL Classification

  • G11
  • G17
  • D53
Open Access

Impact of monetary policy transmission mechanism in West African countries

Published Online: 24 Jan 2022
Page range: 20 - 42

Abstract

Abstract

The study analyzed the impact of monetary policy shocks on economic growth in 12 countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), using quarterly data from 1980(1) to 2017(4). We employed a Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive (Panel SVAR) for the modeling of monetary policy transmission shock in the segregated sub-regions of WAMZ and WAEMU. The key results suggest that fluctuations of the monetary policy do not have significant effects on the economic growth but significantly impact the general price level. Moreover, the study finds that the exchange rate is persistently a vital mechanism that significantly influences the variables of the real economy. Our estimates further suggest that there is idiosyncratic evidence found in the results, which is the anomaly of the Price puzzle.

Keywords

  • Economic growth
  • ECOWAS
  • Monetary policy shocks
  • and Panel SVAR

JEL Classification

  • C01
  • E52
  • E58
Open Access

Impact of Covid-19 pandemic on household income: results of a survey of the economically active population

Published Online: 24 Jan 2022
Page range: 43 - 57

Abstract

Abstract

The aim of the study is to assess the current impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the level of household income in modern national economies according to data for 2020. The assessment of five indicators that characterize the opinions of adults living in different countries about a strong decrease, a small decrease, preservation, a small increase and a strong increase in their income in 2020 was considered. The initial data were the results of a survey of the economically active population in 43 countries, in the process of implementing the Global Entrepreneurship Monitoring project. The five indicators were evaluated using the density functions of the normal distribution. It is proved that for the majority (53%) of households, due to the pandemic, there was a decrease in household income. It shows the preservation of income in a significant (40%) number of households in the countries under consideration. It is shown that the increase in income in 2020 was observed only in a small number (less than 4%) of households. It is proved that the values of each of the five indicators under consideration had a significant differentiation by country. The results of our work have a certain theoretical and practical significance for governments and the economically active population. The methodological approach presented in the article can be used to assess the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on household income in 2021.

Keywords

  • Covid-19 pandemic
  • income
  • households
  • economically active population
  • adults
  • functions of normal distribution

JEL Classification

  • C31
  • D14
  • H31
Open Access

Where do real output shocks to Nigeria mainly emanate from? Empirical analysis of Nigeria-China-India-USA economic interactions

Published Online: 24 Jan 2022
Page range: 58 - 77

Abstract

Abstract

This study investigated Nigeria's economic interactions with China, India, and the USA with a view to identifying the main source of real output shock to Nigeria in the period 1981Q1-2019Q4. The analysis followed the network approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2014), which uses the size and direction of normalized generalized forecast error variance decompositions (NGFEVD) of a vector error correction model to track shock propagation among economic entities. The results indicate that China and India are net transmitters of real output shocks to Nigeria. The results also indicate that Nigeria is a net real output shock receiver. The study concludes that Nigerian policymakers should evolve policies that can insulate the economy against real output shock heatwaves from around the world, especially China and India. Such policies should mainly target the diversification of the economy such that crude oil will no longer be the only major source of revenue.

Keywords

  • Output Shock Transmission
  • Network Approach
  • VAR Model
  • Nigeria

JEL Classification

  • F02
  • C32
  • P16
  • N17
Open Access

The Environmental Kuznets Curve revisited: economic complexity and ecological footprint in the most complex economies of the world

Published Online: 24 Jan 2022
Page range: 78 - 99

Abstract

Abstract

The paper examines the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model in the panel of the most complex economies in the world by considering the ecological footprint as an indicator of environmental degradation and economic complexity - as a variable of interest and expression of structural changes in the economy. The study includes the first 48 complex economies in the world, with positive averages of the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) for 1995-2017. The model of cointegrating polynomial regression (CPR) includes also variables with impact on ecological footprints such as globalization, energy intensity and urbanization. The EKC model is validated in the panel of the 48 complex economies, suggesting that these countries have already reached a development stage enabling them to curb the increasing pollution expressed by ecological footprint. Globalization has a mitigating effect while urbanization and energy intensity have an extension effect on ecological footprint. Policy implications are also included.

Keywords

  • ecological footprint
  • economic complexity
  • panel data
  • EKC

JEL Classification

  • Q5
  • Q56
  • P48
  • L16
  • O13
  • C33
  • F64

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