<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> The Bat harmonic pattern presented in the article shows that transactions made thanks to it on the contract market are characterized by an above-average rate of return (206.43% within 27 days) while accepting the initial risk (R). The use of the potential reversal zone (PRZ) calculated thanks to the Fibonacci retracements (internal and external retracements as well as pricing projections) makes profits that arise in such a short time to be considered impressive. This article presents also one of the simple methods of profits protection which involves exceeding the local maximum (for a short position) or the local minimum (for a long position), modified by the degree of the accepted risk (R). It is worth noting that the POO can be calculated for several hours (days, weeks, months - depending on the time interval) before the actual transaction is concluded. In this, among other things, the harmonic trading with XABCD pattern differs from many other investment methods. This is a decision making based on the data available up to the last bar in the chart of what is likely to happen after this last bar. You could even say that POO is buying fear when prices are falling heavily and selling greed when prices are rising rapidly.</abstract>

Taking investment decisions on the futures contracts market with the application of Bat harmonic pattern – the increased efficiency of investment

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> The aim of this paper is to present a broad picture and novel aspects of the financial crisis contagion with respect to the stages of crisis contagion and its propagation factors. We employ a pioneering approach to a simulation of the financial crisis contagion by embarking on a qualitative query rather than on empirical data (i.e. by adopting an international investor’s perspective by conducting the qualitative query backed by semi-structured interviews with financial markets’ participants). Building on modified Kaplan-Meier Survival Plots, we suggest a model for the financial crisis contagion based on international linkages between markets, with particular attention paid to spot vulnerabilities in regulatory frameworks that allowed for the crisis to spread. Simulation results showed that there were several phases of crisis contagion in Europe, and different countries (regions) were contained via different paths, propagated by different factors with not equal intensity. The diversity of European countries’ susceptibility is evident not only when comparing advanced markets to the emerging ones, but also within these groups. Hereto, both international investment practitioners, as well as pan European market authorities should analyse with scrutiny the links emerging from the simulation, so that to develop sound and efficient investment strategies or impose tailor-made regulations for financial markets.</abstract>

Warsaw School of Economics Institute of Value Creation Al. Niepodlegosci 162, 02-554 Warszawa, Poland

Independent Banking Consultant 45 St. Paul’s Close, W5 3JQ, London, United Kingdom

Model of Financial Crisis Contagion: A Survey-based Simulation by Means of the Modified Kaplan-Meier Survival Plots

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> This study proposes a decision support subsystem in real estate management. Owing to the complex and multi-layered character of the discussed problem, only selected aspects of real estate management are discussed in this paper. The described system will play the role of a relatively simple and effective “assistant” which is expected to maximize the effectiveness of a decision and shorten decision-making time. The author has made an attempt to develop a subsystem as an adviser to subjects operating in the real estate management. This system was developed accounting for and combining the classical economic and real estate market theories with the implementation of non-classical methods in the data mining category in an effort to increase its effectiveness. The rough set theory has been proposed as a tool that supports analytical processes. Fuzzy logic best reproduces expert knowledge, and it is one of the most effective tools for solving “vaguely defined” problems. The given work is an attempt to prove the hypothesis that: the reduction of uncertainty in the real estate management decision-making process is possible by the development of the advisory system based on the rough set theory. The main aim of this work is to increase the efficiency and efficacy of entities operating in the real estate management, thus influencing the effectivness of the entity and management.</abstract>

Structure of a decision support subsystem in real estate management

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> The article presents a discourse on the mechanism by which price bubbles emerge and burst. For idealization purposes the author assumes that even though price bubbles emerge in various markets, their morphology differs from market to market, be it the hi-tech stock (or, more generally, the stock market), the real estate market (where land is of fixed supply) or the housing market. The sources of their diversification lie in the type and weight of the causes of their appearance, the differences between their causative and functional determinants and the market feedbacks. Any interpretation of the nomological diversification of price bubbles (in the sense of their categorisation) requires looking at the system pragmatics and the market in which they emerge. Thus the designations of economic systems and the specifics of markets constitute both the economic and the institutional environment of their origin. They also constitute the necessary context for their understanding and interpretation, as price bubbles rise and collapse within specific functional structures of an economic system.</abstract>

The price bubble morphology

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> The article presents the results of analyses on the impact of interest rates on changes in zloty deposits of households. In the article a comparison was made of the effects of using the two chosen methods of extracting the cyclical component in time series and the impact on performance of interest rates as predictors of cyclical turning points of deposits. The obtained results indicate that the choice of the method influences the identification of turning points. Irrespectively of the method used to extract a cyclical component, the interest rate on new deposits performs better than the interest rate on outstanding amounts of deposits in predicting turning points of zloty deposits of households.</abstract>

Interest rates and changes in zloty deposits of households in Poland

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> In the article problems connected with possibilities of analyzing human behavior in context of propensities were discussed. Main focus was put on differences in propensities with respect to sex, also in context of E. Fromm’s personality theory. Methodological issues related to propensities were presented. Definition of propensity and methods of measuring propensities were also proposed. In empirical example differences in propensity to smoke cigarettes and propensity to drink alcohol with respect to sex in Polish voivodeships in year 2004 were estimated. Also, econometric models explaining that kind of propensities were introduced.</abstract>

Women and men propensities to smoke and drink alcohol

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> We examine the initial public offering (IPO) underpricing phenomenon in Poland using data from the Warsaw Stock Exchange (the main market). In the article we survey historical average IPO underpricing in Europe and outside Europe. We discuss the determinants of the IPO underpricing which is based on asymmetry of information, ownership and control, institutional explanations and behavioural explanations. We discuss the calendar effect and we examine the influence of the January effect on the IPO underpricing. On the Warsaw Stock Exchange in 2005-2011, the IPO underpricing was bigger for companies that debuted in January than for companies that debuted in other months. The empirical results are not statistically significant.</abstract>

The impact of the january effect on the IPO underpricing in Poland

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> The aim of this article is to present theoretical aspects to the R&amp;D internationalization process and its reasons together with the R&amp;D internationalization case study of a Polish enterprise Comarch. The article consists of a theoretical part discussing the essence, forms and reasons of R&amp;D internationalization; a methodical part presenting research methods and measures for determining the degree of R&amp;D internationalization; and a practical one in which the R&amp;D internationalization process in a Polish IT enterprise Comarch has been presented. This process is still going on - the company is setting up R&amp;D branches abroad (in Germany, Austria, Switzerland and France), has started research cooperation with foreign science centres, taken over foreign companies or participates in research syndicates in order to implement projects from the EU’s Framework Programmes. The analysis of the Comarch case was a part of the research conducted by the author of the present paper in 2011 on the R&amp;D internationalization process implemented in Polish enterprises.</abstract>

The analysis of R&amp;D internationalization – case study of Comarch enterprise

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> The paper analyses the factors explaining the vulnerability of the European countries’ industries to foreign trade and production downturn in the years 2008-2009 and attempts to identify branches and industries (or their features significant in this context) that most greatly contributed to the last crisis transmission in Europe, mainly through the slump in their trade. Among those factors we took into particular consideration: the level of specialization versus diversification of the export basket and production, trade openness in the cross-country and cross-industry perspective, the intra-industry/inter-industry structure of trade and the financial openness.</abstract>

Warsaw School of Economics Institute for International Studi Al. Niepodległości 162, 02-554 Warszawa, Poland

Warsaw School of Economics Institute of Econometric Al. Niepodległości 162, 02-554 Warszawa, Poland

Vulnerability to foreign macroeconomic shocks – an empirical study in cross-industry perspective. Example of 2008–2009 global crisis in Europe*

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> Economic function of hedge funds is exactly the same as the one performed by investment funds. In both cases managers are in charge of investors’ money. Investors hope that if they withdraw their money, they will recover their contribution and fair return. The first section of the article presents the essence of hedge funds. The second section discusses measures for assessing the effects of investment policy pursued by hedge funds. The third section analyses the investment performance of hedge funds compared to S&amp;P 500 index. The results of the analysis enabled the author to state that hedge funds achieve considerably higher rates of return regardless of market situation.</abstract>

Investment performance of hedge funds

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