<abstract xml:lang="en" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>The air temperatures recorded at Warsaw-Okęcie in 1951-2010 were
compared with forecasts for the period 1980-2010 and 1991-2010, i.e. 31
and 20 years ahead. Accurate predictions of air temperatures in Warsaw
in 1980-2010 were calculated using the cycles identified by applying the
sinusoidal regression method to a series of monitoring results obtained in
Warsaw between 1779 and 1979. The high accuracy of these forecasts
is the result of a similar progression of measured and forecast values
over a number of years. The prediction of climate change in the Northern
Hemisphere for example, caused by interference of long solar radiation
cycles as well as variations in the concentrations of the δ<sup>18</sup>O oxygen
isotope in the Arctic ice cores, requires a larger series of data points.</p></abstract>

The air temperatures recorded at Warsaw-Okęcie in 1951-2010 were
compared with forecasts for the period 1980-2010 and 1991-2010, i.e. 31
and 20 years ahead. Accurate predictions of air temperatures in Warsaw
in 1980-2010 were calculated using the cycles identified by applying the
sinusoidal regression method to a series of monitoring results obtained in
Warsaw between 1779 and 1979. The high accuracy of these forecasts
is the result of a similar progression of measured and forecast values
over a number of years. The prediction of climate change in the Northern
Hemisphere for example, caused by interference of long solar radiation
cycles as well as variations in the concentrations of the δ18O oxygen
isotope in the Arctic ice cores, requires a larger series of data points.

Verification of forecasts of periodic changes
in the climate of Warsaw in the period 1779-2010

Institute of Physical Geography,
Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies,
University of Warsaw

Miscellanea Geographica

The air temperatures recorded at Warsaw-Okęcie in 1951-2010 were
compared with forecasts for the period 1980-2010 and 1991-2010, i.e. 31
and 20 years ahead....

Verification of forecasts of periodic changes in the climate of Warsaw in the period 1779-2010

Publié en ligne: 22 déc. 2012

Pages: 16 - 22

Reçu: 27 mars 2012

Accepté: 27 sept. 2012

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/v10288-012-0025-2

Mots clés
Air temperature, Wolf numbers, period, interference, forecast, tree ring

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