<abstract xml:lang="en" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>In power systems, task of load forecasting is important for keeping equilibrium between production and consumption. With liberalization of electricity markets, task of load forecasting changed because each market participant has to forecast their own load. Consumption of end-consumers is stochastic in nature. Due to competition, suppliers are not in a position to transfer their costs to end-consumers; therefore it is essential to keep forecasting error as low as possible. Numerous papers are investigating load forecasting from the perspective of the grid or production planning. We research forecasting models from the perspective of a supplier. In this paper, we investigate different combinations of exogenous input on the simulated supplier loads and show that using points of delivery as a feature for Support Vector Regression leads to lower forecasting error, while adding customer number in different datasets does the opposite.</p></abstract>

In power systems, task of load forecasting is important for keeping equilibrium between production and consumption. With liberalization of electricity markets, task of load forecasting changed because each market participant has to forecast their own load. Consumption of end-consumers is stochastic in nature. Due to competition, suppliers are not in a position to transfer their costs to end-consumers; therefore it is essential to keep forecasting error as low as possible. Numerous papers are investigating load forecasting from the perspective of the grid or production planning. We research forecasting models from the perspective of a supplier. In this paper, we investigate different combinations of exogenous input on the simulated supplier loads and show that using points of delivery as a feature for Support Vector Regression leads to lower forecasting error, while adding customer number in different datasets does the opposite.

Supplier Short Term Load Forecasting Using Support Vector Regression and Exogenous Input

Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia

Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia

Journal of Electrical Engineering

In power systems, task of load forecasting is important for keeping equilibrium between production and consumption. With liberalization of electricity markets,...

Supplier Short Term Load Forecasting Using Support Vector Regression and Exogenous Input

Publié en ligne: 24 oct. 2011

Pages: 280 - 285

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/v10187-011-0044-9

Mots clés
supplier, exogenous input, short term load forecasting, support vector regression, electricity market

This content is open access.

Supplier Short Term Load Forecasting Using Support Vector Regression and Exogenous Input

Publié en ligne: 24 oct. 2011

Pages: 280 - 285

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/v10187-011-0044-9

Mots cléssupplier, exogenous input, short term load forecasting, support vector regression, electricity market

This content is open access.

Mots clés
supplier, exogenous input, short term load forecasting, support vector regression, electricity market