<abstract xml:lang="en" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>In present paper we assess the climate change impact on mean runoff between the periods 1961-1990 (control period) and 2070-2099 (scenario period) in the Czech Republic. Hydrological balance is modelled with a conceptual hydrological model BILAN at 250 catchments of different sizes and climatic conditions. Climate change scenarios are derived using simple delta approach, i.e. observed series of precipitation, temperature and relative air humidity are perturbed in order to give the same changes between the control and scenario period as in the ensemble of 15 transient regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The parameters of the hydrological model are for each catchment estimated using observed data. These parameters are subsequently used to derive discharge series under climate change conditions for each RCM simulation. Although the differences in the absolute values of the changes in runoff are considerable, robust patterns of changes can be identified. The majority of the scenarios project an increase in winter runoff in the northern part of the Czech Republic, especially at catchments with high elevation. The scenarios also agree on a decrease in spring and summer runoff in most of the catchments.</p></abstract>

In present paper we assess the climate change impact on mean runoff between the periods 1961-1990 (control period) and 2070-2099 (scenario period) in the Czech Republic. Hydrological balance is modelled with a conceptual hydrological model BILAN at 250 catchments of different sizes and climatic conditions. Climate change scenarios are derived using simple delta approach, i.e. observed series of precipitation, temperature and relative air humidity are perturbed in order to give the same changes between the control and scenario period as in the ensemble of 15 transient regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The parameters of the hydrological model are for each catchment estimated using observed data. These parameters are subsequently used to derive discharge series under climate change conditions for each RCM simulation. Although the differences in the absolute values of the changes in runoff are considerable, robust patterns of changes can be identified. The majority of the scenarios project an increase in winter runoff in the northern part of the Czech Republic, especially at catchments with high elevation. The scenarios also agree on a decrease in spring and summer runoff in most of the catchments.

A Multi-Model Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Regime in the Czech Republic

Department of Hydrology, T. G. Masaryk Water Research Institute, p. r. i., Podbabská 30, 160 00 Prague, Czech Republic

Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Prague, Czech Republic

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics

In present paper we assess the climate change impact on mean runoff between the periods 1961-1990 (control period) and 2070-2099 (scenario period) in the Czech...

A Multi-Model Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Regime in the Czech Republic

Publié en ligne: 30 août 2012

Pages: 152 - 161

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/v10098-012-0013-4

Mots clés
změna klimatu, hydrologický režim, Česká republika

This content is open access.

A Multi-Model Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Regime in the Czech Republic

Publié en ligne: 30 août 2012

Pages: 152 - 161

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/v10098-012-0013-4

Mots clészměna klimatu, hydrologický režim, Česká republika

This content is open access.

Mots clés
změna klimatu, hydrologický režim, Česká republika