<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p> Econometric modeling and exponential smoothing techniques are two quantitative forecasting methods with  good results in practice, but the objective of the research was to find out which of the two techniques are better  for short run predictions. Therefore, for inflation, unemployment and interest rate in the Czech Republic various  accuracy indicators were calculated for the predictions based on these methods. Short run forecasts on a horizon  of 3 months were made for December 2011-February 2012, the econometric models being updated. For the  Czech Republic, the exponential smoothing techniques provided more accurate forecasts than the econometric  models (VAR(2) models, ARMA procedure and models with lagged variables). One explication for the better  performance of smoothing techniques would be that in the chosen countries the short run predictions were more  influenced by the recent evolution of the indicators. </p></abstract>

Econometric modeling and exponential smoothing techniques are two quantitative forecasting methods with  good results in practice, but the objective of the research was to find out which of the two techniques are better  for short run predictions. Therefore, for inflation, unemployment and interest rate in the Czech Republic various  accuracy indicators were calculated for the predictions based on these methods. Short run forecasts on a horizon  of 3 months were made for December 2011-February 2012, the econometric models being updated. For the  Czech Republic, the exponential smoothing techniques provided more accurate forecasts than the econometric  models (VAR(2) models, ARMA procedure and models with lagged variables). One explication for the better  performance of smoothing techniques would be that in the chosen countries the short run predictions were more  influenced by the recent evolution of the indicators.

Predicting Macroeconomic Indicators in the Czech Republic Using Econometric Models and Exponential Smoothing Techniques

Faculty of Cybernetics, Statistics and Economic Informatics- Bucharest

South East European Journal of Economics and Business

Econometric modeling and exponential smoothing techniques are two quantitative forecasting methods with  good results in practice, but the objective of the...

Predicting Macroeconomic Indicators in the Czech Republic Using Econometric Models and Exponential Smoothing Techniques

Publié en ligne: 09 mars 2013

Pages: 89 - 99

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/v10033-012-0017-3

This content is open access.