<abstract xml:lang="en" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>In this work long-term probability of occurrence of maximum sea levels in some points of Polish Baltic Sea coast, was determined. Use was made of multi-year series of measurement data on maximum yearly sea levels, and their probability distributions were determined. To the analysis Gumbel's distribution and Pearson distribution of 3rd type as well as quantile methods and the highest credibility method, were applied. Kolmogorov test was used to examine conformity of the theoretical distributions with real random variable distribution. As results from the analysis, the highest sea levels of 1000- year return period can be expected in Polish ports of the west part of the coast, i.e. Kolobrzeg (750, 2 cm, i.e. 2,5 m above the average sea level) and Swinoujscie (723,6 cm). Lower sea levels of the same return period can be expected in Ustka (720,2 cm), Wladyslawowo (709,7 cm) and Gdansk (716, 7 cm), respectively.</p></abstract>

In this work long-term probability of occurrence of maximum sea levels in some points of Polish Baltic Sea coast, was determined. Use was made of multi-year series of measurement data on maximum yearly sea levels, and their probability distributions were determined. To the analysis Gumbel's distribution and Pearson distribution of 3rd type as well as quantile methods and the highest credibility method, were applied. Kolmogorov test was used to examine conformity of the theoretical distributions with real random variable distribution. As results from the analysis, the highest sea levels of 1000- year return period can be expected in Polish ports of the west part of the coast, i.e. Kolobrzeg (750, 2 cm, i.e. 2,5 m above the average sea level) and Swinoujscie (723,6 cm). Lower sea levels of the same return period can be expected in Ustka (720,2 cm), Wladyslawowo (709,7 cm) and Gdansk (716, 7 cm), respectively.

Occurrence probability of maximum sea levels in Polish ports of Baltic Sea coast

Polish Maritime Research

{"article-title":"Occurrence probability of maximum sea levels in Polish ports of Baltic Sea coast"}

In this work long-term probability of occurrence of maximum sea levels in some points of Polish Baltic Sea coast, was determined. Use was made of multi-year...

Occurrence probability of maximum sea levels in Polish ports of Baltic Sea coast

Publié en ligne: 21 oct. 2009

Pages: 62 - 69

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/v10012-008-0035-3

Mots clés
sea levels, probability, Polish Baltic Sea coast

This content is open access.

Occurrence probability of maximum sea levels in Polish ports of Baltic Sea coast

Publié en ligne: 21 oct. 2009

Pages: 62 - 69

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/v10012-008-0035-3

Mots cléssea levels, probability, Polish Baltic Sea coast

This content is open access.

Mots clés
sea levels, probability, Polish Baltic Sea coast