Fertility Transition in China and its Causes

Demographic transition faced by modern economies, including China, are among the most important long-term socio-economic challenges. In 2022, China observed its population decline for the first time since the early 1960s. The low fertility rate was of critical importance. The unprecedented one-child policy is quite commonly indicated as the main reason for the low fertility rate. However, the departure from this restrictive policy and the actions introduced under the two-child policy implemented from 2016, and then the three-child policy from mid-2021, have not brought an improvement in fertility rates. The aim of the paper is to answer the following research questions: Should the decline and persistent low fertility rate in China be attributed solely or mainly to the unprecedented one-child policy, which was in force for over three decades?

Fertility transition in China is the effect of several factors and depends largely on the studied period. In the 1970s and 1980s, the government’s family policy was a key determinant of the decline in fertility. However, contrary to the prevailing belief about the determining influence of the one-child policy, the first stage of the implementation of the birth control policy, the Wan, Xi, Shao program, had a greater impact. Since the 1990s, the low fertility rate has been mainly explained by the extraordinary socio-economic changes and rapidly increasing prosperity of the Chinese people. Since the beginning of the 21st century, cultural changes resulting mainly from the integration of the Chinese economy with the global system have been crucial. Cultural changes have affected reproductive behaviour, marriage patterns, marriage postponement, birth postponement, fertility, and family size in Chinese society, which is observed below-replacement fertility.

China’s demographic future depends on the fertility trajectory. However, due to the size of the population, but also the position of the Chinese economy in the global economic system, Chinese demographic transition may also bring significant consequences for the global economy.