<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

<p>Exogenous shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic or the Russian conflict affected the global economy, but mostly emerging economies. Even though the critical moments have passed, the negative effects on the economy are still present in the current economic environment, characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Exogenous events, which have an uncertain likelihood of occurring, harm economies regardless of their development. In fact, a framework for unanticipated events is vital, as are steps to achieve low levels of national debt and increased authority stability. In this context, the objective of this paper is to examine the dynamic relationships between energy prices and certain macroeconomic variables, which were affected by the fact that the energy crisis triggered by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict overlapped with the accelerated transition to a green economy and the decarbonization process. The CEE countries are more vulnerable to the energy crisis, and their proximity to the front lines of military conflict can be an important fact to take into account. The research focuses on the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania. The empirical analysis was conducted on monthly frequency data and in order to present an effective method of modeling interactions between macroeconomic variables, the Bayesian technique was employed.</p>
</abstract>

Exogenous shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic or the Russian conflict affected the global economy, but mostly emerging economies. Even though the critical moments have passed, the negative effects on the economy are still present in the current economic environment, characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Exogenous events, which have an uncertain likelihood of occurring, harm economies regardless of their development. In fact, a framework for unanticipated events is vital, as are steps to achieve low levels of national debt and increased authority stability. In this context, the objective of this paper is to examine the dynamic relationships between energy prices and certain macroeconomic variables, which were affected by the fact that the energy crisis triggered by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict overlapped with the accelerated transition to a green economy and the decarbonization process. The CEE countries are more vulnerable to the energy crisis, and their proximity to the front lines of military conflict can be an important fact to take into account. The research focuses on the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania. The empirical analysis was conducted on monthly frequency data and in order to present an effective method of modeling interactions between macroeconomic variables, the Bayesian technique was employed.

Evaluating the Impact of Energy Price Shocks on Emerging Countries from the Non-Euro Area: A Macroeconomic Analysis

Studies in Business and Economics

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Exogenous shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic or the Russian conflict affected the global economy, but mostly emerging economies. Even though the critical...

Evaluating the Impact of Energy Price Shocks on Emerging Countries from the Non-Euro Area: A Macroeconomic Analysis

Publié en ligne: 21 mai 2024

Pages: 334 - 349

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/sbe-2024-0018

Mots clés
oil price shocks, BVAR, non-Euro area

© 2024 Alexandra Horobeţ et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Evaluating the Impact of Energy Price Shocks on Emerging Countries from the Non-Euro Area: A Macroeconomic Analysis

Publié en ligne: 21 mai 2024

Pages: 334 - 349

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/sbe-2024-0018

Mots clésoil price shocks, BVAR, non-Euro area

© 2024 Alexandra Horobeţ et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Mots clés
oil price shocks, BVAR, non-Euro area