Passenger Transport Shift to Green Mobility – Assessment Using TIMES Model

The transport sector accounts for about one-third of the final energy consumption in Latvia, most of which are fossil fuels in road transport. Fossil fuel consumption increases emissions and demands an immediate change in mobility habits to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. This paper focuses on the in-depth analyses of passenger transport by modelling the potential use of cleaner energy sources and the possible decrease of consumption through the modal shift. As travel modes differ for each distance, the study is done for three distances – short, medium and long. Three scenarios have been analysed – BASE scenario including existing measures and taxation policy, NECP scenario including measures defined in the National Energy and Climate Plan until 2030 and GHG TARGET scenario aiming to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. The proposed modelling approach allows for the development and evaluation of the effectiveness of existing and planned measures in greening mobility. Results proved the need for immediate action and a change in the mobility habits of the population to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.