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GIS-Based Land Cover Analysis and Prediction Based on Open-Source Software and Data

Wojciech Dawid
Wojciech Dawid
 et 
Elżbieta Bielecka
Elżbieta Bielecka
   | 16 juil. 2022
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Publié en ligne: 16 juil. 2022
Pages: 75 - 86
Reçu: 14 févr. 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2022-0026
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© 2022 Wojciech Dawid et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Fig. 1

Study area location.
Study area location.

Fig. 2

Workflow scheme of land-use prediction process.
Workflow scheme of land-use prediction process.

Fig. 3

Explanatory variables, raster data.a) distance from roads; b) distance from buildings; c) population; d) restricted areas; e) Digital Elevation Model; f) slope.
Explanatory variables, raster data.a) distance from roads; b) distance from buildings; c) population; d) restricted areas; e) Digital Elevation Model; f) slope.

Fig. 4

Percentage of land cover categories on analysed area (2006 and 2012).
Percentage of land cover categories on analysed area (2006 and 2012).

Fig. 5

CLC maps.(a) 2006; (b) 2012; (c) 2018. LULC types: 1 – Artificial surfaces; 2 – Agricultural areas; 3 – Forest and seminatural ecosystems; 4 – Wetlands; 5 – Water bodies.
CLC maps.(a) 2006; (b) 2012; (c) 2018. LULC types: 1 – Artificial surfaces; 2 – Agricultural areas; 3 – Forest and seminatural ecosystems; 4 – Wetlands; 5 – Water bodies.

Fig. 6

Change map between land use in 2006 and 2012.LULC types: 1 – Artificial surfaces; 2 – Agricultural areas; 3 – Forest and seminatural ecosystems; 4 – Wetlands; 5 – Water bodies.
Change map between land use in 2006 and 2012.LULC types: 1 – Artificial surfaces; 2 – Agricultural areas; 3 – Forest and seminatural ecosystems; 4 – Wetlands; 5 – Water bodies.

Fig. 7

Predicted land use in 2024.LULC types: 1 – Artificial surfaces; 2 – Agricultural areas; 3 – Forest and seminatural ecosystems; 4 – Wetlands; 5 – Water bodies.
Predicted land use in 2024.LULC types: 1 – Artificial surfaces; 2 – Agricultural areas; 3 – Forest and seminatural ecosystems; 4 – Wetlands; 5 – Water bodies.

Fig. 8

Spatial distribution of land cover changes.LULC types: 1 – Artificial surfaces; 2 – Agricultural areas; 3 – Forest and seminatural ecosystems; 4 – Wetlands; 5 – Water bodies.
Spatial distribution of land cover changes.LULC types: 1 – Artificial surfaces; 2 – Agricultural areas; 3 – Forest and seminatural ecosystems; 4 – Wetlands; 5 – Water bodies.

Summary of data used.

Data / format Reference years CRS Spatial resolution Data provider Explanatory variables
CORINE land Cover / vector 2006, 2012, 2018 ETRS89 / Poland CS92 25 ha Copernicus Land Monitoring Services [CLMS 2022]
BDOT10k / vector 2018 ETRS89 / Poland CS92 1:10,000 Head Office of Geodesy and Cartography [GUGiK 2022] Distance to roads, built-up area, protected areas
DTED / raster 2004 WGS84 30 m United States Geological Survey [USGS 2022] Slope, elevation
GHS POP / Grid 2015 World Mollweide 250 m Joint Research Centre (JRC), DG for Regional and Urban Policy of the European Commission [GHS-POP 2022] Population distribution

Correlation values between explanatory variables.

Names of variables Slope Distance to buildings Restricted areas Distance to roads Population Elevation
Slope – −0.04 0.01 −0.00 −0.00 0.35
Distance to buildings – 0.02 0.30 −0.40 0.21
Restricted areas – 0.03 −0.02 −0.02
Distance to roads – −0.30 0.10
Population – −0.29
Elevation –

Land cover and land cover change statistics [in km2]

Land cover 2018 2024 2012–2018 2018–2024
Artificial surfaces 309.06 318.25 8.81 9.19
Agricultural areas 1289.38 1285.56 −7.69 −3.81
Forest and seminatural ecosystems 654.12 650.25 −1.06 −3.88
Wetlands 3.00 2.62 0.00 −0.38
Water bodies 73.75 72.62 −0.06 −1.12

Statistics of land cover changes in km2.

Land cover class Land cover code 2006 2012 2018 2006–2012 2012–2018 2006–2018
Artificial surfaces 1 213.69 300.25 309.06 86.56 8.81 95.37
Agricultural areas 2 1405.19 1297.06 1289.38 −108.12 −7.69 115.81
Forest and seminatural ecosystems 3 634.56 655.19 654.12 20.62 −1.06 19.56
Wetlands 4 2.56 3.00 3.00 0.44 0.00 0.44
Water bodies 5 73.31 73.81 73.75 0.50 −0.06 0.44

Buffer zones applied to roads and built-up area.

Distance to roads and built-up areas [m] Zone number
≤ 100 1
100–200 2
200–500 3
500–1000 4
> 1000 5

Transition matrix between CLC 2006 and 2012.

Land cover Artificial Agricultural Forest, seminatural ecosystems Wetlands Water
Artificial 0.9782 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
Agricultural 0.06 0.92 0.02 0.00 0.00
Forest, seminatural ecosystems 0.01 0.01 0.98 0.00 0.00
Wetlands 0.00 0.17 0.22 0.61 0.00
Water 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.98
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