<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p> In this paper is presented possible application of the theory of semi-Markov processes to elaborating an eight-state model of the process of occurrence of serviceability state and unserviceability states of sea-going ships making critical manoeuvres during their entering and leaving the ports. In the analysis it was taken into account that sea-going ships are in service for a very long time t (t → ∞). The model was elaborated to determine the probability (P0) of correct execution of critical manoeuvres during ship’s entering and leaving the port as well as the probabilities Pj(j = 1, 2, 3, …, 7) of incorrect execution of critical manoeuvres by a ship, that leads to marine accidents. It was assumed that such accidents result from: ship’s grounding on port approaching fairway, collision with a ship on port approching fairway, collision with a pierhead during passing through port entrance, collision with a hydrotechnical structure during ship’s passing through port channels, collision with a port quay during coming alongside it and collision with a ship already moored to the quay. The probability (P0) was assumed a measure of safe execution of a critical manoeuvre. The probability characterizes possibility of avoiding any collision during ship’s entering and leaving the port. The probability Pa = 1 - P0 was assumed a measure of occurrence of a collsion and - consequently - marine accident. The probability Pa was interpreted as a sum of the probabilities Pj(j = 1, 2, 3, …, 7) of occurrence of all the selected events. In summing up the paper, attention was drawn to its merits which - in opinion of this author - are crucial for research on real process of accidents during entering the port and leaving it by sea-going ship in difficult navigation conditions.</p></abstract>

In this paper is presented possible application of the theory of semi-Markov processes to elaborating an eight-state model of the process of occurrence of serviceability state and unserviceability states of sea-going ships making critical manoeuvres during their entering and leaving the ports. In the analysis it was taken into account that sea-going ships are in service for a very long time t (t → ∞). The model was elaborated to determine the probability (P0) of correct execution of critical manoeuvres during ship’s entering and leaving the port as well as the probabilities Pj(j = 1, 2, 3, …, 7) of incorrect execution of critical manoeuvres by a ship, that leads to marine accidents. It was assumed that such accidents result from: ship’s grounding on port approaching fairway, collision with a ship on port approching fairway, collision with a pierhead during passing through port entrance, collision with a hydrotechnical structure during ship’s passing through port channels, collision with a port quay during coming alongside it and collision with a ship already moored to the quay. The probability (P0) was assumed a measure of safe execution of a critical manoeuvre. The probability characterizes possibility of avoiding any collision during ship’s entering and leaving the port. The probability Pa = 1 - P0 was assumed a measure of occurrence of a collsion and - consequently - marine accident. The probability Pa was interpreted as a sum of the probabilities Pj(j = 1, 2, 3, …, 7) of occurrence of all the selected events. In summing up the paper, attention was drawn to its merits which - in opinion of this author - are crucial for research on real process of accidents during entering the port and leaving it by sea-going ship in difficult navigation conditions.

Application of theory of semi-Markov processes to determining distribution of probabilistic process of marine accidents resulting from collision of ships

Polish Maritime Research

In this paper is presented possible application of the theory of semi-Markov processes to elaborating an eight-state model of the process of occurrence of...

Application of theory of semi-Markov processes to determining distribution of probabilistic process of marine accidents resulting from collision of ships

Publié en ligne: 04 avr. 2014

Pages: 9 - 13

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/pomr-2014-0002

Mots clés
critical manoeuvre, port, probability, semi-Markov process, sea-going ship

This content is open access.

Application of theory of semi-Markov processes to determining distribution of probabilistic process of marine accidents resulting from collision of ships

Publié en ligne: 04 avr. 2014

Pages: 9 - 13

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/pomr-2014-0002

Mots cléscritical manoeuvre, port, probability, semi-Markov process, sea-going ship

This content is open access.

Mots clés
critical manoeuvre, port, probability, semi-Markov process, sea-going ship