<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>This paper aims to predict the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Morocco from a mathematical approach. Based on the reliability of the data and the nature of confirmed cases, the SEIRD model is employed to provide a theoretical framework to forecast COVID-19 ongoing epidemic. Findings suggest that the structure and parameters of the proposed model give insights into the dynamics of the virus. Hence, this study contributes to the conceptual areas of knowledge on COVID-19 in proposing an optimal control plan to help decrease the number of confirmed cases by applying preventive measures such as social distancing, wearing facial masks. Matlab/Simulink TM simulations are used to illustrate the findings.</p></abstract>

This paper aims to predict the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Morocco from a mathematical approach. Based on the reliability of the data and the nature of confirmed cases, the SEIRD model is employed to provide a theoretical framework to forecast COVID-19 ongoing epidemic. Findings suggest that the structure and parameters of the proposed model give insights into the dynamics of the virus. Hence, this study contributes to the conceptual areas of knowledge on COVID-19 in proposing an optimal control plan to help decrease the number of confirmed cases by applying preventive measures such as social distancing, wearing facial masks. Matlab/Simulink TM simulations are used to illustrate the findings.

Optimal control strategy of COVID-19 spread in Morocco using SEIRD model

Laboratory Analysis, Modeling and Simulation LAMS. Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Sciences Ben MSik

Moroccan Journal of Pure and Applied Analysis

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

{"article-title":"Optimal control strategy of COVID-19 spread in Morocco using SEIRD model"}

This paper aims to predict the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Morocco from a mathematical approach. Based on the reliability of the data and the...

Optimal control strategy of COVID-19 spread in Morocco using SEIRD model

Publié en ligne: 22 nov. 2020

Pages: 66 - 79

Reçu: 07 juil. 2020

Accepté: 20 oct. 2020

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/mjpaa-2021-0007

Mots clés
COVID-19, Dynamic model, Epidemiological models, Optimal Control and Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle

© 2020 H. Ferjouchia et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Optimal control strategy of COVID-19 spread in Morocco using SEIRD model

Publié en ligne: 22 nov. 2020

Pages: 66 - 79

Reçu: 07 juil. 2020

Accepté: 20 oct. 2020

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/mjpaa-2021-0007

Mots clésCOVID-19, Dynamic model, Epidemiological models, Optimal Control and Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle

© 2020 H. Ferjouchia et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Mots clés
COVID-19, Dynamic model, Epidemiological models, Optimal Control and Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle