Enhancing urban mobility: predicting cycle paths in Lublin city using GIS and open-source data

The study focuses on predicting cycle path development for the year 2030 in Lublin by integrating land cover data with key factors such as demographic trends, cycling path design guidelines, and topographic features. The authors propose a novel method for identifying optimal locations for new bike paths, emphasizing the prioritization of routes, based on a demographic index across Lublin’s districts and on land cover forecasts for 2030. This forward-looking approach ensures that the proposed network aligns with future urban development and population distribution patterns, creating a cycling infrastructure that is both adaptable and responsive to the city’s evolving needs. As a result, the study designates areas of approximately 30 km² for the development of cycle tracks, creating a comprehensive and flexible cycle infrastructure that adapts to projected changes in land use.