Variable | Moran’s |
Z score | P value |
---|---|---|---|
From 2013 to 2020 | −0.014 | 0.387 | 0.350 |
In 2013 | −0.019 | 0.259 | 0.398 |
In 2014 | −0.046 | −0.362 | 0.359 |
In 2015 | 0.042 | 1.783 | 0.037 |
In 2016 | −0.064 | −0.992 | 0.161 |
In 2017 | −0.034 | −0.075 | 0.470 |
In 2018 | −0.007 | 0.607 | 0.272 |
In 2019 | −0.021 | 0.239 | 0.406 |
In 2020 | — | — | — |
In January | −0.008 | 0.507 | 0.306 |
In February | −0.008 | 0.526 | 0.299 |
In March | −0.006 | 0.563 | 0.287 |
In April | −0.004 | 0.586 | 0.279 |
In May | −0.040 | −0.210 | 0.417 |
In June | −0.045 | −0.350 | 0.363 |
In July | 0.009 | 1.103 | 0.135 |
In August | — | — | — |
In September | −0.073 | −0.996 | 0.160 |
In October | −0.036 | −0.164 | 0.435 |
In November | −0.046 | −0.366 | 0.357 |
In December | 0.072 | 2.320 | 0.010 |
Before comprehensive animal H7N9 immunisation | −0.020 | 0.255 | 0.399 |
After comprehensive animal H7N9 immunisation | −0.028 | 0.058 | 0.477 |
Decomposition sequence | Hyperparameters σ | Normalisation parameters |
---|---|---|
[3,0] | 9506 | 7350.8 |
[3,1] | 2514.5 | 3946.2 |
[3,2] | 9113.6 | 9740.8 |
[3,3] | 818.709 | 7242.1 |
Decomposition sequence | ARIMA model parameters |
---|---|
[3,4] | ARIMA (1,0,0)*(2,0,0) [12] |
[3,5] | ARIMA (3,0,0) |
[3,6] | ARIMA (0,0,0) |
[3,7] | ARIMA (3,0,0) |
Date | Real value | [3,0] | [3,1] | [3,2] | [3,3] | [3,4] | [3,5] | [3,6] | [3,7] | Predictive value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05/2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0.002 |
06/2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 |
07/2019 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 |
08/2019 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.003 |
09/2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0.002 |
10/2019 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.010 |
11/2019 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.003 |
12/2019 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0.002 | 0.006 |
01/2020 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0.004 |
02/2020 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.003 |
03/2020 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 |
04/2020 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.002 |
Evaluation index | LS-SVM-ARIMA combined model based on WPD | ARIMA model | LS-SVM model | LS-SVM-model ARIMA |
---|---|---|---|---|
MAE | 0.024 | 0.119 | 0.098 | 0.077 |
RMSE | 0.020 | 0.067 | 0.059 | 0.041 |
Time | Province | Number of outbreaks | Poultry | Number of cases | Number of fatalities | Number of animals culled |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
June 2017 | Inner Mongolia | 2 | Chicken | 63,406 | 37,582 | 424,197 |
June 2017 | Heilongjiang | 1 | Chicken | 20,150 | 19,500 | 16,610 |
August 2017 | Anhui | 1 | Chicken | 1,368 | 910 | 74,463 |
March 2018 | Shaanxi | 1 | Chicken | 1,000 | 810 | 1,000 |
April 2018 | Shanxi | 1 | Chicken | 812 | 699 | 6,374 |
April 2018 | Ningxia | 1 | Chicken | 1,200 | 585 | 13,578 |
May 2018 | Liaoning | 1 | Chicken | 11,000 | 9,000 | 8,000 |
May 2018 | Ningxia | 1 | Chicken | 3,000 | 2,210 | 86,000 |
March 2019 | Liaoning | 1 | Peacock | 9 | 9 | 191 |
Date | Real value | ARIMA model | LS-SVM model | LS-SVM-ARIMA model |
---|---|---|---|---|
05/2019 | 0 | 0.014 | 0.013 | 0.009 |
06/2019 | 0 | 0.007 | 0.006 | 0.011 |
07/2019 | 0 | 0.004 | 0.005 | 0.016 |
08/2019 | 0 | 0.011 | 0.012 | 0.012 |
09/2019 | 0 | 0.009 | 0.008 | 0.008 |
10/2019 | 0.008 | 0.014 | 0.013 | 0.020 |
11/2019 | 0 | 0.017 | 0.010 | 0.008 |
12/2019 | 0 | 0.020 | 0.015 | 0.016 |
01/2020 | 0 | 0.005 | 0.006 | 0.007 |
02/2020 | 0 | 0.010 | 0.007 | 0.003 |
03/2020 | 0 | 0.011 | 0.005 | 0.005 |
04/2020 | 0 | 0.018 | 0.012 | 0.010 |