À propos de cet article
Catégorie d'article: Original Study
Publié en ligne: 18 nov. 2024
Pages: 67 - 77
Reçu: 28 nov. 2023
Accepté: 09 août 2024
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jms-2024-0006
Mots clés
© 2024 Maria Keinonen, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Fig. 1:
Fig. 2:
Deterrence strategies
| Deterrence strategy | Explanation |
|---|---|
| Deterrence by punishment | Deterrence by punishment refers to the state’s effort to convince the threat actor that aggression will be met with a countermeasure of at least the same effect. ( |
| Deterrence by denial | Deterrence by denial refers to the state’s effort to convince the threat actor that aggression will not achieve the desired effects, because, for example, the effect of the aggression will be less than intended or its costs will be higher than planned. ( |
| Direct deterrence | Direct deterrence refers to the state’s effort to convince the threat actor that aggression will be repelled. ( |
| Extended deterrence | Extended deterrence refers to the state’s effort to convince the threat actor that aggression against allies or partners will result in countermeasures by that state. ( |
| General deterrence | General deterrence refers to continuous and systematic measures implemented by the state to respond to aggression under normal conditions. Preparation is not aimed at any specific threat. The state tries to convince the threat actors that they are ready to respond to aggression. ( |
| Immediate deterrence | Immediate deterrence refers to actions planned and implemented immediately against a threat that appears during a state crisis. During a crisis, the state tries to convince the threat actor that aggression will be responded to with immediate action. ( |
| Narrow deterrence | Narrow deterrence refers to the state’s effort to convince the threat actor that they will be met with military force. ( |
| Broad deterrence | Broad deterrence refers to the state’s effort to convince the threat actor that aggression will be met with versatile measures. These include, e.g., military, political and economic measures and measures enabled by law and the information environment. ( |
| Positive deterrence | Positive deterrence refers to the state’s effort to offer the threat actor opportunities for cooperation and rewards when it refrains from aggression. ( |
| Negative deterrence | Negative deterrence refers to the state’s effort to convince the threat actor that aggression will result in a negative reaction and that the threat actor will lose, among other things, the benefits of cooperation. ( |
Statistics of the survey
| Deterrence type | Punishment | Denial | Direct | Extended | General | Immediate | Narrow | Broad | Positive | Negative |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N Valid | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 |
| Missing | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median | 3.00 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Mode | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Variance | 1.380 | 0.411 | 0.675 | 0.934 | 1.077 | 0.970 | 1.155 | 1.175 | 1.194 | 1.564 |
| 25 | 2.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| 50 | 3.00 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| 75 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 5.00 | 3.00 | 4.00 |
Prevalence of factors in open-ended answers
| Factors Deterrence options | International enabling factors | National enabling factors | National preventive factors | International preventive factors | ||||||
| NATO | EU | Existing model | Comprehensive security | National defence and readiness | Limited armed forces | Low status as an international actor | Intentions of the potential aggressor | Uncategorised factors | Total | |
| General (%) | 6 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 100 | ||
| Denial (%) | 12 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 16.5 | 100 | ||
| Direct (%) | 0 | 0 | 12.5 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 100 | ||
| Extended (%) | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6.5 | 2 | 100 | ||
| Broad (%) | 1.5 | 14 | 5 | 1.5 | 9 | 7 | 15.5 | 100 | ||
| Narrow (%) | 5 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 19 | 100 | ||
| Immediate (%) | 6 | 0 | 6 | 18.5 | 9 | 0 | 12.5 | 100 | ||
| Punishment (%) | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 10 | 100 | ||
| Negative (%) | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 100 | ||
| Positive (%) | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 100 | ||