<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>The paper explores the possibilities of creating an econometric model for making short-term forecasts of the Gross Domestic Product of Bosnia and Herzegovina (GDP of B&amp;H). Its aim is to determine the most representative and most efficient model for forecasting the quarterly GDP of B&amp;H. This is the first paper that simultaneously compares ARIMA models, bridge models and factor models in three different time periods. All variables are available for the period of 2006q1-2016q4. The final choice of the model for forecasting the quarterly GDP of B&amp;H was selected on the basis of a comparative analysis of the predictive efficiency of the analysed models. Based on the obtained results, the most efficient model for forecasting quarterly GDP of B&amp;H is the bridge model, which includes four variables as regressor: Retail sale of other goods, Total loans, Manufacturing and Manufacture of food products.</p></abstract>

The paper explores the possibilities of creating an econometric model for making short-term forecasts of the Gross Domestic Product of Bosnia and Herzegovina (GDP of B&H). Its aim is to determine the most representative and most efficient model for forecasting the quarterly GDP of B&H. This is the first paper that simultaneously compares ARIMA models, bridge models and factor models in three different time periods. All variables are available for the period of 2006q1-2016q4. The final choice of the model for forecasting the quarterly GDP of B&H was selected on the basis of a comparative analysis of the predictive efficiency of the analysed models. Based on the obtained results, the most efficient model for forecasting quarterly GDP of B&H is the bridge model, which includes four variables as regressor: Retail sale of other goods, Total loans, Manufacturing and Manufacture of food products.

Nowcasting GDP of Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Comparison of Forecast Accuracy Models

South East European Journal of Economics and Business

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

The paper explores the possibilities of creating an econometric model for making short-term forecasts of the Gross Domestic Product of Bosnia and Herzegovina...

Nowcasting GDP of Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Comparison of Forecast Accuracy Models

Publié en ligne: 31 déc. 2020

Pages: 1 - 14

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jeb-2020-0011

Mots clés
quarterly GDP, forecasting models, unbiased estimator, forecast accuracy

© 2020 Ademir Abdić et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Nowcasting GDP of Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Comparison of Forecast Accuracy Models

Publié en ligne: 31 déc. 2020

Pages: 1 - 14

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jeb-2020-0011

Mots clésquarterly GDP, forecasting models, unbiased estimator, forecast accuracy

© 2020 Ademir Abdić et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Mots clés
quarterly GDP, forecasting models, unbiased estimator, forecast accuracy