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Using Machine Learning Techniques to Predict Hospital Admission at the Emergency Department

Georgios Feretzakis
Georgios Feretzakis
, 
George Karlis
George Karlis
, 
Evangelos Loupelis
Evangelos Loupelis
, 
Dimitris Kalles
Dimitris Kalles
, 
Rea Chatzikyriakou
Rea Chatzikyriakou
, 
Nikolaos Trakas
Nikolaos Trakas
, 
Eugenia Karakou
Eugenia Karakou
, 
Aikaterini Sakagianni
Aikaterini Sakagianni
, 
Lazaros Tzelves
Lazaros Tzelves
, 
Stavroula Petropoulou
Stavroula Petropoulou
, 
Aikaterini Tika
Aikaterini Tika
, 
Ilias Dalainas
Ilias Dalainas
 et 
Vasileios Kaldis
Vasileios Kaldis
   | 12 mai 2022
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Article Category: Research Article
Publié en ligne: 12 mai 2022
Pages: 107 - 116
Reçu: 26 août 2021
Accepté: 04 avr. 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jccm-2022-0003
Mots clés
© 2022 Georgios Feretzakis, George Karlis, Evangelos Loupelis, Dimitris Kalles, Rea Chatzikyriakou, Nikolaos Trakas, Eugenia Karakou, Aikaterini Sakagianni, Lazaros Tzelves, Stavroula Petropoulou, Aikaterini Tika, Ilias Dalainas, Vasileios Kaldis, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Fig. 1

Patient flow diagram
Patient flow diagram

Fig. 2

Weighted Average values of F-Measure and ROC Area for all methods (10-fold cross-validation)
Weighted Average values of F-Measure and ROC Area for all methods (10-fold cross-validation)

Fig. 3

Weighted Average values of F-Measure and ROC Area for all methods - ReplaceMissingValues filters (10-fold cross-validation)
Weighted Average values of F-Measure and ROC Area for all methods - ReplaceMissingValues filters (10-fold cross-validation)

Performance results by class of LogitBoost (10-fold cross-validation)

TP Rate FP Rate Precision Recall F-Measure MCC ROC Area PRC Area Admission
0.489 0.147 0.658 0.489 0.561 0.370 0.774 0.657 Yes
0.853 0.511 0.742 0.853 0.794 0.370 0.774 0.854 No
Weighted Avg. 0.719 0.377 0.711 0.719 0.708 0.370 0.774 0.782

Performance results by class of Bagging (10-fold cross-validation)

TP Rate FP Rate Precision Recall F-Measure MCC ROC Area PRC Area Admission
0.471 0.142 0.657 0.471 0.549 0.360 0.764 0.654 Yes
0.858 0.529 0.737 0.858 0.793 0.360 0.764 0.840 No
Weighted Avg. 0.716 0.387 0.708 0.716 0.703 0.360 0.764 0.772

Performance results by class of Logistic Regression–ReplaceMissingValues filters (10-fold cross-validation)

TP Rate FP Rate Precision Recall F-Measure MCC ROC Area PRC Area Admission
0.456 0.143 0.649 0.456 0.536 0.345 0.765 0.643 Yes
0.857 0.544 0.731 0.857 0.789 0.345 0.765 0.841 No
Weighted Avg. 0.710 0.397 0.701 0.710 0.696 0.345 0.765 0.768

Weighted Average values of F-Measure and ROC Area for all methods -ReplaceMissingValues filters (10-fold cross-validation)

F-Measure ROC Area
NaiveBayes 0.663 0.741
Logistic Regression 0.696 0.765
Ada boost 0.674 0.731
Logit boost 0.704 0.757
ClassificationViaRegression 0.691 0.758
Random Forest 0.723 0.789
Bagging 0.712 0.775
Multilayer perceptron 0.697 0.740

Performance results by class of ClassificationViaRegression–ReplaceMissingValues filters (10-fold cross-validation)

TP Rate FP Rate Precision Recall F-Measure MCC ROC Area PRC Area Admission
0.447 0.145 0.641 0.447 0.527 0.334 0.758 0.638 Yes
0.855 0.553 0.727 0.855 0.786 0.334 0.758 0.837 No
Weighted Avg. 0.705 0.403 0.696 0.705 0.691 0.334 0.758 0.764

Performance results by class of NaiveBayes (10-fold cross-validation)

TP Rate FP Rate Precision Recall F-Measure MCC ROC Area PRC Area Admission
0.360 0.091 0.696 0.360 0.474 0.330 0.734 0.602 Yes
0.909 0.640 0.710 0.909 0.797 0.330 0.734 0.811 No
Weighted Avg. 0.708 0.439 0.705 0.708 0.679 0.330 0. 734 0.734

Performance results by class of NaiveBayes –ReplaceMissingValues filters (10-fold cross-validation)

TP Rate FP Rate Precision Recall F-Measure MCC ROC Area PRC Area Admission
0.329 0.091 0.677 0.329 0.442 0.300 0.741 0.603 Yes
0.909 0.671 0.700 0.909 0.791 0.300 0.741 0.822 No
Weighted Avg. 0.696 0.458 0.692 0.696 0.663 0.300 0.741 0.742

Performance results by class of Multilayer perceptron (10-fold cross-validation)

TP Rate FP Rate Precision Recall F-Measure MCC ROC Area PRC Area Admission
0.542 0.190 0.623 0.542 0.580 0.364 0.742 0.622 Yes
0.810 0.458 0.753 0.810 0.781 0.364 0.742 0.815 No
Weighted Avg. 0.712 0.360 0.705 0.712 0.707 0.364 0.742 0.744

Weighted Average values of F-Measure and ROC Area for all methods (10-fold cross-validation)

F-Measure ROC Area
NaiveBayes 0.679 0.734
Logistic Regression 0.697 0.762
Ada boost 0.685 0.753
Logit boost 0.708 0.774
ClassificationViaRegression 0.691 0.760
Random Forest 0.689 0.757
Bagging 0.703 0.764
Multilayer perceptron 0.707 0.742

Performance results by class of Bagging–ReplaceMissingValues filters (10-fold cross-validation)

TP Rate FP Rate Precision Recall F-Measure MCC ROC Area PRC Area Admission
0.515 0.161 0.649 0.515 0.574 0.375 0.775 0.654 Yes
0.839 0.485 0.749 0.839 0.791 0.375 0.775 0.852 No
Weighted Avg. 0.720 0.366 0.712 0.720 0.712 0.375 0.775 0.779

Performance results by class of LogitBoost –ReplaceMissingValues filters (10-fold cross-validation)

TP Rate FP Rate Precision Recall F-Measure MCC ROC Area PRC Area Admission
0.464 0.135 0.666 0.464 0.547 0.364 0.757 0.641 Yes
0.865 0.536 0.736 0.865 0.795 0.364 0.757 0.837 No
Weighted Avg. 0.718 0.389 0.710 0.718 0.704 0.364 0.757 0.765

Performance results by class of AdaBoost–ReplaceMissingValues filters (10-fold cross-validation)

TP Rate FP Rate Precision Recall F-Measure MCC ROC Area PRC Area Admision
0.396 0.133 0.634 0.396 0.487 0.302 0.731 0.604 Yes
0.867 0.604 0.713 0.867 0.782 0.302 0.731 0.815 No
Weighted Avg. 0.694 0.431 0.684 0.694 0.674 0.302 0.731 0.738

Performance results by class of Random Forest–ReplaceMissingValues filters (10-fold cross-validation)

TP Rate FP Rate Precision Recall F-Measure MCC ROC Area PRC Area Admission
0.540 0.161 0.660 0.540 0.594 0.399 0.789 0.676 Yes
0.839 0.460 0.759 0.839 0.797 0.399 0.789 0.858 No
Weighted Avg. 0.729 0.350 0.723 0.729 0.723 0.399 0.789 0.791

Performance results by class of Random Forest– ReplaceMissingValues and ClassBalancer filters (10-fold cross-validation)

TP Rate FP Rate Precision Recall F-Measure MCC ROC Area PRC Area Admission
0.653 0.243 0.729 0.653 0.689 0.412 0.784 0.767 Yes
0.757 0.347 0.686 0.757 0.720 0.412 0.784 0.783 No
Weighted Avg. 0.705 0.295 0.707 0.705 0.704 0.412 0.784 0.775

Performance results by class of Multilayer perceptron–ReplaceMissingValues filters (10-fold cross-validation)

TP Rate FP Rate Precision Recall F-Measure MCC ROC Area PRC Area Admission
0.480 0.161 0.633 0.480 0.546 0.343 0.740 0.617 Yes
0.839 0.520 0.736 0.839 0.784 0.343 0.740 0.808 No
Weighted Avg. 0.707 0.388 0.698 0.707 0.697 0.343 0.740 0.738

Performance results by class of Logistic Regression (10-fold cross-validation)

TP Rate FP Rate Precision Recall F-Measure MCC ROC Area PRC Area Admission
0.456 0.142 0.650 0.456 0.536 0.346 0.762 0.641 Yes
0.858 0.544 0.732 0.858 0.790 0.346 0.762 0.838 No
Weighted Avg. 0.711 0.396 0.702 0.711 0.697 0.346 0.762 0.766

Features

Features Type Mean Standard Deviation
CPK numerical 179.155 1183.877
CREA numerical 1.06 0.827
CRP numerical 39.094 71.48
LDH numerical 222.327 156.343
UREA numerical 45.651 33.616
aPTT numerical 34.227 11.443
DDIMER numerical 1422.899 2522.921
INR numerical 1.131 0.571
HGB numerical 12.87 2.13
LYM numerical 22.085 11.672
NEUT numerical 69.478 13.083
PLT numerical 252.467 87.814
WBC numerical 9.617 5.153
Age numerical; Integer* 61.175 20.822
Gender categorical {Male, Female}
ED Unit categorical {Urology, Pulmonology, Internal Medicine, Otolaryngology, Triage, Cardiology, General Surgery, Opthalmology, Vascular Surgery, Thoracic Surgery}
Ambulance Categorical {Yes, No}
Admission Categorical {Yes, No}

Performance results by class of AdaBoost (10-fold cross-validation)

TP Rate FP Rate Precision Recall F-Measure MCC ROC Area PRC Area Admision
0.423 0.137 0.642 0.423 0.510 0.323 0.753 0.620 Yes
0.863 0.577 0.721 0.863 0.786 0.323 0.753 0.836 No
Weighted Avg. 0.702 0.415 0.692 0.702 0.685 0.323 0.753 0.757

Performance results by class of ClassificationViaRegression (10-fold cross-validation)

TP Rate FP Rate Precision Recall F-Measure MCC ROC Area PRC Area Admission
0.447 0.145 0.641 0.447 0.527 0.334 0.760 0.639 Yes
0.855 0.553 0.727 0.855 0.786 0.334 0.760 0.839 No
Weighted Avg. 0.705 0.403 0.696 0.705 0.691 0.334 0.760 0.766

Performance results by class of Logit Boost– ClassBalancer filter (10-fold cross-validation)

TP Rate FP Rate Precision Recall F-Measure MCC ROC Area PRC Area Admission
0.685 0.300 0.696 0.685 0.690 0.385 0.773 0.758 Yes
0.700 0.315 0.690 0.700 0.695 0.385 0.773 0.779 No
Weighted Avg. 0.693 0.307 0.693 0.693 0.693 0.385 0.773 0.769

Performance results by class of Random Forest (10-fold cross-validation)

TP Rate FP Rate Precision Recall F-Measure MCC ROC Area PRC Area Admission
0.394 0.103 0.689 0.394 0.501 0.345 0.757 0.650 Yes
0.897 0.606 0.719 0.897 0.798 0.345 0.757 0.832 No
Weighted Avg. 0.713 0.422 0.708 0.713 0.689 0.345 0.757 0.765
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Medicine, Clinical Medicine, Internal Medicine, other, Surgery, Anaesthesiology, Emergency Medicine and Intensive-Care Medicine
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