Consequences of immigrating during a recession: Evidence from the US Refugee Resettlement program
Publié en ligne: 17 déc. 2020
Pages: -
© 2020 Joshua Mask, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Test for changes in composition
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
---|
| Employment | Employment | Log wages | Log wages |
---|
ue_i | 0.0052* | | 0.0010 | |
| (0.0023) | | (0.0015) | |
1 year, ue_i | | −0.0092* | | −0.0003 |
| | (0.0044) | | (0.0026) |
2 years, ue_i | | 0.0026 | | 0.0014 |
| | (0.0027) | | (0.0017) |
3 years, ue_i | | 0.0045 | | 0.0003 |
| | (0.0028) | | (0.0019) |
4 years, ue_i | | 0.0079* | | −0.0009 |
| | (0.0034) | | (0.0021) |
5 years, ue_i | | 0.0155*** | | 0.0035+ |
| | (0.0038) | | (0.0020) |
Observations | 31,974 | 31,974 | 31,974 | 31,974 |
Adj. R2 | 0.077 | 0.078 | 0.197 | 0.197 |
Main results
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
---|
| Employment | Employment | Log wages | Log wages |
---|
ue_i | −0.0157** | | −0.0198** | |
| (0.0055) | | (0.0061) | |
1 year, ue_i | | 0.0168 | | −0.0153+ |
| | (0.0104) | | (0.0087) |
2 years, ue_i | | −0.0113 | | −0.0240** |
| | (0.0073) | | (0.0079) |
3 years, ue_i | | −0.0225* | | −0.0088 |
| | (0.0089) | | (0.0075) |
4 years, ue_i | | −0.0360*** | | −0.0211* |
| | (0.0081) | | (0.0091) |
5 years, ue_i | | −0.0208* | | −0.0251** |
| | (0.0085) | | (0.0090) |
Observations | 31,815 | 31,815 | 13,772 | 13,772 |
Adj. R2 | 0.202 | 0.203 | 0.251 | 0.251 |
Employment estimates-national unemployment rate treatment (robustness table for results found in Column 2 of Table 3)
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) |
---|
1 year, ue_i | 0.0078 | 0.0035 | 0.0041 | 0.0057 | 0.0073 | 0.0105 | 0.0151 | 0.0168 |
| (0.0107) | (0.0106) | (0.0106) | (0.0106) | (0.0105) | (0.0106) | (0.0104) | (0.0104) |
2 years, ue_i | -0.0087 | -0.0149+ | -0.0145+ | -0.0139+ | -0.0141+ | -0.0142+ | -0.0117 | -0.0113 |
| (0.0080) | (0.0077) | (0.0076) | (0.0076) | (0.0076) | (0.0074) | (0.0074) | (0.0073) |
3 years, ue_i | -0.0183* | -0.0234* | -0.0232* | -0.0230* | -0.0224* | -0.0249** | -0.0228* | -0.0225* |
| (0.0091) | (0.0091) | (0.0091) | (0.0091) | (0.0090) | (0.0091) | (0.0090) | (0.0089) |
4 years, ue_i | -0.0285*** | -0.0331*** | -0.0322*** | -0.0332*** | -0.0326*** | -0.0366*** | -0.0359*** | -0.0360*** |
| (0.0083) | (0.0083) | (0.0082) | (0.0082) | (0.0082) | (0.0082) | (0.0082) | (0.0081) |
5 years, ue_i | -0.0055 | -0.0129 | -0.0129 | -0.0144+ | -0. 0148+ | -0.0210* | -0.0212* | -0.0208* |
| (0.0091) | (0.0089) | (0.0088) | (0.0087) | (0.0086) | (0.0087) | (0.0085) | (0.0085) |
Country of origin | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * |
Years of education | | * | * | * | * | * | * | * |
Gender | | | * | * | * | * | * | * |
Age | | | | * | * | * | * | * |
English at arrival | | | | | * | * | * | * |
Disabled at arrival | | | | | | * | * | * |
Married at arrival | | | | | | | * | * |
Any children at arrival | | | | | | | | * |
Years since migration FE | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * |
Contemp. year FE | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * |
Month of arrival FE | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * |
Contemp. state UR | -0.0541*** | -0.0539*** | -0.0540*** | -0.0535*** | -0.0536*** | -0.0518*** | -0.0530*** | -0.0529*** |
| (0.0039) | (0.0037) | (0.0037) | (0.0037) | (0.0037) | (0.0038) | (0.0039) | (0.0039) |
Observations | 31,815 | 31,815 | 31,815 | 31,815 | 31,815 | 31,815 | 31,815 | 31,815 |
Adj. R2 | 0.116 | 0.161 | 0.170 | 0.174 | 0.175 | 0.195 | 0.201 | 0.203 |
Main results by gender
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) |
---|
| Male | Male | Male | Male | Female | Female | Female | Female |
---|
| Employment | Employment | Log wages | Log wages | Employment | Employment | Log wages | Log wages |
---|
ue_i | -0.0170* | | -0.0201** | | -0.0143* | | -0.0198** | |
| (0.0068) | | (0.0075) | | (0.0070) | | (0.0071) | |
1 year, ue_i | | 0.0044 | | -0.0161 | | 0.0293* | | -0.0153 |
| | (0.0132) | | (0.0114) | | (0.0119) | | (0.0100) |
2 years, ue_i | | -0.0153 | | -0.0270** | | -0.0072 | | -0.0216* |
| | (0.0099) | | (0.0104) | | (0.0089) | | (0.0101) |
3 years, ue_i | | -0.0258* | | -0.0030 | | -0.0190+ | | -0.0171* |
| | (0.0104) | | (0.0100) | | (0.0113) | | (0.0087) |
4 years, ue_i | | -0.0293** | | -0.0198+ | | -0.0429*** | | -0.0218+ |
| | (0.0097) | | (0.0107) | | (0.0117) | | (0.0112) |
5 years, ue_i | | -0.0169 | | -0.0285* | | -0.0240* | | -0.0208+ |
| | (0.0112) | | (0.0111) | | (0.0112) | | (0.0115) |
Observations | 15,748 | 15,748 | 7,504 | 7,504 | 16,067 | 16,067 | 6,268 | 6,268 |
Adj. R2 | 0.203 | 0.203 | 0.248 | 0.249 | 0.191 | 0.192 | 0.232 | 0.232 |
Heterogeneity within log wage estimates
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) |
---|
| No HS | HS | College | No HS | HS | College |
---|
| Males | Males | Males | Females | Females | Females |
---|
ue_i | −0.0070 | −0.0282** | −0.0668** | −0.0191* | −0.0082 | −0.0799* |
| (0.0094) | (0.0098) | (0.0251) | (0.0076) | (0.0097) | (0.0321) |
Observations | 2,634 | 4,224 | 646 | 2,641 | 3,194 | 433 |
Adj. R2 | 0.200 | 0.276 | 0.236 | 0.196 | 0.223 | 0.205 |
Log wage estimates—national unemployment rate treatment (robustness table for results found in column 4 of Table 3)
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) |
---|
1 year, ue_si | -0.0215* | -0.0221* | -0.0200* | -0.0199* | -0.0182* | -0.0181* | -0.0153+ | -0.0153+ |
| (0.0095) | (0.0088) | (0.0087) | (0.0088) | (0.0087) | (0.0087) | (0.0087) | (0.0087) |
2 years, ue_si | -0.0234** | -0.0251** | -0.0243** | -0.0246** | -0.0252** | -0.0253** | -0.0240** | -0.0240** |
| (0.0087) | (0.0080) | (0.0080) | (0.0081) | (0.0080) | (0.0080) | (0.0079) | (0.0079) |
3 years, ue_si | -0.0089 | -0.0099 | -0.0097 | -0.0098 | -0.0092 | -0.0092 | -0.0088 | -0.0088 |
| (0.0083) | (0.0075) | (0.0076) | (0.0076) | (0.0076) | (0.0076) | (0.0075) | (0.0075) |
4 years, ue_si | -0.0218* | -0.0199* | -0.0201* | -0.0207* | -0.0203* | -0.0205* | -0.0211* | -0.0211* |
| (0.0097) | (0.0091) | (0.0091) | (0.0091) | (0.0091) | (0.0091) | (0.0091) | (0.0091) |
5 years, ue_si | -0.0181+ | -0.0205* | -0.0222* | -0.0227* | -0.0237** | -0.0239** | -0.0251** | -0.0251** |
| (0.0095) | (0.0092) | (0.0090) | (0.0090) | (0.0089) | (0.0090) | (0.0090) | (0.0090) |
Country of origin | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * |
Years of education | | * | * | * | * | * | * | * |
Gender | | | * | * | * | * | * | * |
Age | | | | * | * | * | * | * |
English at arrival | | | | | * | * | * | * |
Disabled at arrival | | | | | | * | * | * |
Married at arrival | | | | | | | * | * |
Any children at arrival | | | | | | | | * |
Years since migration FE | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * |
Contemp. year FE | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * |
Month of arrival FE | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * |
Contemp. state UR | -0.0183*** | -0.0190*** | -0.0200*** | -0.0204*** | -0.0205*** | -0.0205*** | -0.0204*** | -0.0204*** |
| (0.0036) | (0.0036) | (0.0035) | (0.0035) | (0.0035) | (0.0035) | (0.0035) | (0.0035) |
Observations | 13,772 | 13,772 | 13,772 | 13,772 | 13,772 | 13,772 | 13,772 | 13,772 |
Adj. R2 | 0.178 | 0.221 | 0.243 | 0.244 | 0.247 | 0.247 | 0.251 | 0.251 |
Summary statistics by year of arrival
Demographics | 1988–1991 | 1992–1995 | 1996–1999 | 2000–2004 | All years |
---|
Years of education | 10.19 | 10.38 | 10.74 | 10.08 | 10.36 |
% Female | 50.62 | 51.38 | 49.76 | 51.52 | 50.98 |
Age at arrival | 31.47 | 32.92 | 32.09 | 32.12 | 32.38 |
% Fluent in English | 9.09 | 7.33 | 10.71 | 14.29 | 9.18 |
% Disabled | 10.73 | 13.13 | 8.19 | 8.97 | 11.15 |
% Married | 61.01 | 54.09 | 58.33 | 57.64 | 56.67 |
% Have children | 54.88 | 56.44 | 61.32 | 67.96 | 58.84 |
% From Africa | 1.64 | 5.23 | 10.26 | 13.80 | 6.80 |
% From Asia | 90.91 | 86.12 | 50.51 | 53.87 | 75.70 |
% From Europe | 7.45 | 8.66 | 39.10 | 31.76 | 17.38 |
% From South America | 0 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.56 | 0.11 |
Individuals | 3,289 | 8,573 | 3,069 | 2,840 | 17,771 |
Heterogeneity within employment estimates
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) |
---|
| No HS | HS | College | No HS | HS | College |
---|
| Males | Males | Males | Females | Females | Females |
---|
ue_i | −0.0149 | −0.0190+ | −0.0101 | 0.0032 | −0.0352** | −0.0423+ |
| (0.0094) | (0.0099) | (0.0231) | (0.0100) | (0.0107) | (0.0246) |
Observations | 6,596 | 7,762 | 1,390 | 7,980 | 6,984 | 1,103 |
Adj. R2 | 0.177 | 0.187 | 0.270 | 0.165 | 0.185 | 0.224 |
State unemployment estimates
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
---|
| Employment | Employment | Log wages | Log wages |
---|
ue_si | 0.0049 | | −0.0140* | |
| (0.0067) | | (0.0060) | |
1 year, ue_si | | 0.0017 | | −0.0249*** |
| | (0.0085) | | (0.0071) |
2 years, ue_si | | −0.0080 | | −0.0238*** |
| | (0.0075) | | (0.0071) |
3 years, ue_si | | 0.0046 | | −0.0153* |
| | (0.0076) | | (0.0068) |
4 years, ue_si | | 0.0071 | | −0.0117+ |
| | (0.0076) | | (0.0066) |
5 years, ue_si | | 0.0137+ | | −0.0067 |
| | (0.0072) | | (0.0063) |
Observations | 31,815 | 31,815 | 13,772 | 13,772 |
Adj. R2 | 0.221 | 0.221 | 0.278 | 0.278 |
Test of balance for continuous treatments
| (1) | (2) |
---|
| Arrival | Arrival |
---|
| National | State |
---|
| Unemp. rate | Unemp. rate |
---|
Age | −0.0012 | −0.0008 |
| (0.0011) | (0.0014) |
English fluency | 0.0056 | 0.0224 |
| (0.0396) | (0.0455) |
Years of education | 0.0065+ | 0.0050 |
| (0.0035) | (0.0053) |
Gender | 0.0107 | −0.0094 |
| (0.0115) | (0.0174) |
Disability | 0.0150 | 0.1023 |
| (0.0431) | (0.0686) |
Married | 0.0049 | 0.0955* |
| (0.0309) | (0.0410) |
Any Children | 0.0240 | 0.0057 |
| (0.0347) | (0.0494) |
Country-of-Origin FE | * | * |
Date-of-Arrival FE | | * |
Observations | 31,969 | 31,969 |
Adj. R2 | 0.213 | 0.509 |
State unemployment estimates using pioneers
| Nationality pioneers |
---|
| (3) | (4) |
---|
| Employment | Log wages |
---|
ue_si | −0.0314 | −0.1250** |
| (0.0259) | (0.0419) |
Observations | 1,739 | 681 |
Adj. R2 | 0.298 | 0.347 |
1 year, ue_si | 0.0028 | −0.1322+ |
| (0.0440) | (0.0713) |
2 years, ue_si | −0.0621* | −0.1058* |
| (0.0312) | (0.0513) |
3 years, ue_si | −0.0305 | −0.1321** |
| (0.0289) | (0.0461) |
4 years, ue_si | −0.0241 | −0.1387** |
| (0.0313) | (0.0419) |
5 years, ue_si | −0.0582+ | −0.1245** |
| (0.0306) | (0.0445) |
Observations | 1,739 | 681 |
Adj. R2 | 0.300 | 0.343 |
Years since migration by panel iteration
Years since | Panel iteration |
---|
Migration | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Total |
---|
1 Year | 7,442 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7,442 |
2 Years | 3,619 | 4,202 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7,821 |
3 Years | 2,639 | 1,546 | 3,596 | 0 | 0 | 7,781 |
4 Years | 2,147 | 1,225 | 1,247 | 3,089 | 0 | 7,708 |
5 Years | 1,924 | 907 | 976 | 1,118 | 2,398 | 7,323 |
Total | 17,771 | 7,880 | 5,819 | 4,207 | 2,398 | 38,075 |
j.izajodm-2020-0021.tab.108.w2aab3b7d346b1b6b1ab1b5b6b4Aa
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) |
---|
| No HS | HS | College | No HS | HS | College |
---|
| Males | Males | Males | Females | Females | Females |
---|
1 year, ue_i | 0.0130 | 0.0143 | −0.0632 | 0.0627*** | 0.0093 | −0.0856+ |
| (0.0206) | (0.0169) | (0.0433) | (0.0161) | (0.0198) | (0.0478) |
2 years, ue_i | −0.0078 | −0.0131 | −0.0373 | 0.0081 | −0.0224 | −0.0118 |
| (0.0148) | (0.0143) | (0.0330) | (0.0128) | (0.0148) | (0.0353) |
3 years, ue_i | −0.0339* | −0.0246 | 0.0050 | −0.0031 | −0.0347* | −0.0582+ |
| (0.0151) | (0.0151) | (0.0303) | (0.0155) | (0.0158) | (0.0307) |
4 years, ue_i | −0.0226 | −0.0463*** | 0.0400 | −0.0382* | −0.0596*** | −0.0317 |
| (0.0143) | (0.0127) | (0.0324) | (0.0160) | (0.0158) | (0.0385) |
5 years, ue_i | −0.0210 | −0.0202 | 0.0101 | −0.0054 | −0.0549*** | −0.0357 |
| (0.0175) | (0.0148) | (0.0367) | (0.0162) | (0.0149) | (0.0472) |
Observations | 6,596 | 7,762 | 1,390 | 7,980 | 6,984 | 1,103 |
Adj. R2 | 0.178 | 0.187 | 0.271 | 0.168 | 0.186 | 0.223 |
Main results for non-movers
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
---|
| Employment | Employment | Log wages | Log wages |
---|
ue_i | −0.0227** | | −0.0263*** | |
| (0.0071) | | (0.0078) | |
1 year, ue_i | | 0.0213 | | −0.0275* |
| | (0.0145) | | (0.0128) |
2 years, ue_i | | −0.0012 | | −0.0311** |
| | (0.0095) | | (0.0106) |
3 years, ue_i | | −0.0380** | | −0.0135 |
| | (0.0130) | | (0.0111) |
4 years, ue_i | | −0.0538*** | | −0.0330** |
| | (0.0120) | | (0.0115) |
5 years, ue_i | | −0.0345** | | −0.0229* |
| | (0.0114) | | (0.0115) |
Observations | 18,289 | 18,289 | 8,190 | 8,190 |
Adj. R2 | 0.192 | 0.193 | 0.246 | 0.246 |
Welfare utilization
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
---|
| AFDC/TANF | AFDC/TANF | SNAP | SNAP |
---|
ue_i | −0.0019 | | 0.0094 | |
| (0.0067) | | (0.0080) | |
1 year, ue_i | | −0.0286* | | −0.0416** |
| | (0.0126) | | (0.0157) |
2 years, ue_i | | 0.0098 | | 0.0133 |
| | (0.0111) | | (0.0140) |
3 years, ue_i | | −0.0026 | | 0.0199+ |
| | (0.0095) | | (0.0119) |
4 years, ue_i | | 0.0109 | | 0.0372** |
| | (0.0085) | | (0.0129) |
5 years, ue_i | | −0.0052 | | 0.0101 |
| | (0.0096) | | (0.0133) |
Observations | 31,751 | 31,751 | 31,780 | 31,780 |
Adj. R2 | 0.186 | 0.187 | 0.281 | 0.283 |
Summary statistics by years since migration
Above median | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | All |
---|
Years of education | 10.80 | 10.84 | 10.73 | 10.34 | 10.04 | 10.58 |
% Female | 51.33 | 51.24 | 50.96 | 49.41 | 50.89 | 50.79 |
Age at arrival | 34.29 | 33.74 | 32.94 | 32.00 | 31.56 | 33.01 |
% Fluent in English | 9.16 | 6.86 | 8.50 | 8.39 | 6.63 | 7.97 |
% Disabled | 10.85 | 11.55 | 10.88 | 10.43 | 11.17 | 10.98 |
% Married | 62.61 | 61.99 | 61.92 | 60.01 | 60.96 | 61.55 |
% Have children | 63.50 | 62.18 | 62.76 | 61.64 | 60.35 | 62.17 |
|
Below median | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | All |
|
Years of education | 10.34 | 10.83 | 10.84 | 10.87 | 10.63 | 10.72 |
% Female | 50.28 | 50.62 | 51.32 | 50.39 | 50.62 | 50.67 |
Age at arrival | 34.78 | 34.53 | 33.94 | 33.47 | 32.23 | 33.71 |
% Fluent in English | 8.71 | 8.33 | 6.74 | 5.29 | 4.94 | 6.66 |
% Disabled | 14.00 | 13.70 | 12.32 | 11.81 | 10.06 | 12.25 |
% Married | 56.30 | 58.45 | 58.74 | 57.19 | 55.33 | 57.22 |
% Have children | 57.51 | 54.33 | 54.40 | 54.33 | 56.37 | 55.31 |
j.izajodm-2020-0021.tab.102.w2aab3b7d346b1b6b1ab1b5b6b7Aa
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) |
---|
| No HS | HS | College | No HS | HS | College |
---|
| Males | Males | Males | Females | Females | Females |
---|
1 year, ue_i | −0.0011 | −0.0150 | −0.0967** | −0.0071 | 0.0026 | −0.1520** |
| (0.0161) | (0.0164) | (0.0340) | (0.0123) | (0.0146) | (0.0510) |
2 years, ue_i | −0.0001 | −0.0385** | −0.0641+ | −0.0191+ | −0.0096 | −0.0455 |
| (0.0149) | (0.0136) | (0.0373) | (0.0105) | (0.0149) | (0.0465) |
3 years, ue_i | −0.0007 | −0.0067 | −0.0480 | −0.0368*** | 0.0064 | −0.0746+ |
| (0.0130) | (0.0129) | (0.0352) | (0.0109) | (0.0112) | (0.0443) |
4 years, ue_i | −0.0097 | −0.0251+ | −0.0466 | −0.0214+ | −0.0197 | −0.0116 |
| (0.0143) | (0.0133) | (0.0466) | (0.0119) | (0.0154) | (0.0506) |
5 years, ue_i | −0.0190 | −0.0420** | −0.0741 | −0.0111 | −0.0123 | −0.1264* |
| (0.0167) | (0.0136) | (0.0475) | (0.0146) | (0.0149) | (0.0572) |
Observations | 2,634 | 4,224 | 646 | 2,641 | 3,194 | 433 |
Adj. R2 | 0.199 | 0.276 | 0.232 | 0.197 | 0.223 | 0.211 |