Spatial-temporal assessment of regional labor market differentiation

A regional labor market is a geographic area characterized by spatially defined job opportunities without the need for workers to relocate [Fischer and Nijkamp, 1987]. The specificity of employment opportunities for each region is usually the result of the regions’ specialization in certain fields and the high share of these specializations in their economies. In addition, each region should have jobs available to its residents. These two characteristics make it possible to identify regional labor markets with voivodeship labor markets [Kryńska and Kwiatkowski, 2013]. The regional labor market operates on analogous principles to the national labor market, but it takes into account beyond-national realities, its specific characteristics distinguishing it from other markets. Thus, the main components of regional labor markets will be unemployment representing the supply side and employment representing the demand side of the labor market [Socha-Sachalin, 1998]. Due to the diversity of Poland’s regions, the country’s voivodeship labor markets also differ. Situations in individual markets will be different depending on the geographic location of the voivodeship, their surroundings (voivodeships and neighboring countries), and the potential of labor resources (including age, skill level of residents). Thus, the labor market situation in a region may differ significantly from that of the national labor market [Buchwald, 2009; Hartmann and Pinheiro, 2022]. It follows that studies of regional labor markets, in particular, should be relevant to the conduct of both regional and national policies.

Studies of regional labor markets are very often based on comparative analyses of specific measures indicating the situation in the labor market such as, among others: unemployment rate, employment rate, number of employed, and labor force participation rate between voivodeships or in relation to the country as a whole, as well as analysis of changes in the size of indicators over time, e.g., surveys [Kryńska et al., 2011; Gajdos, 2013; Knapińska, 2016; Antoszak, 2017; Zieliński, 2017]. To make in-depth regional analyses that take into account many aspects of the labor market, multivariate comparative analyses, spatial analysis methods, and econometric models are increasingly being used [Laskowska and Zóltaszek, 2021]. Spatial relationships exist in all regional markets including voivodeship labor markets. Therefore, it is important to take them into account in the analyses of the formation of various socio-economic phenomena, including analyses of labor markets. For example, an increase in the average level of wages in one region may be the cause of labor migration in the other surrounding regions and thus result in a decrease in labor supply in them. On the other hand, a favorable situation in the income aspect in a particular voivodeship may contribute to an improvement in the labor market in a nearby, poorer voivodeship, which will attract wealthy customers due to its attractiveness [Dańska-Borsiak and Olejnik, 2021].

Analyses of regional labor markets are carried out by many researchers around the world. Jones [2012] examined changes in UK regional employment during the period of the New Labor administration during the period 1997–2010. In his research, he analyzed the shift-share of workplace employment data by industry and subregion. His research has indirectly allowed the regional competitiveness of labor markets to be examined, but above all changing spatial distribution of employment.

Mayor and López [2009] have carried out a spatial analysis of regional employment in Spain. In their research, they used spatial shift-share models based on previously defined spatial weights matrix, which made it possible to identify and estimate spatial effects in the evolution of regional employment in Spain. The method used in the study considered each sector separately, and thus made it possible to examine changes in the structure of employment and also between the initial and final periods.

On the other hand, in Canada, analyses were conducted directed at examining the impact of the energy sector development on employment rates in various occupations and industries in eight regions across Alberta [Brox et al., 2010]. In that study, the SSA was extended beyond its conventional application of assessing regional industrial performance by accounting for the impact of regional economic growth or decline in particular occupational categories.

The study of the diversity of regional labor markets will make it possible to compare and evaluate their competitiveness against the country. The aspect of competitiveness can be considered from various perspectives, including the worker’s point of view. For employees, the important features will be mainly the level of wages and conditions of employment. There should be no doubt that employees are looking for jobs that will give them the opportunity to earn attractive wages. Therefore, the competitiveness of regional labor markets largely depends on the level of wages offered in the region. If a region is characterized by high average wages, the likelihood of attracting a skilled labor force increases, and well-qualified workers bring opportunities for increased regional development of the economy [Gora and Sztanderska, 2006]. The competitiveness of the labor markets is not only limited to employment conditions and wage levels, but also to the possibility of getting a job in the region, which can be expressed by the number of job offers in a given voivodeship. When the number of offers is relatively large, workers have more room for maneuver in choosing the most suitable and attractive job possible for them, and this in turn forces employers to offer and provide favorable working conditions. The analysis of employment in the regions is important because of the income generated by the employed, which translates into the competitiveness and economic development of the regions, and thus the development of the country as a whole [Jewczak and Twardowska, 2011]. The competitiveness of voivodeship labor markets is a very important issue from the point of view of investors. Regions with a high level of employment and a favorable situation in the labor market make it possible to achieve higher levels of production [(Salimova at all 2022, Kwiatkowski and Kucharski, 2011], which results in them becoming more attractive to investors, due to the greater likelihood of success in the investments undertaken in these regions. The investment attractiveness of voivodeships, and then of Poland as a whole, is therefore the result of well-functioning regional labor markets [Michalski, 2014].

The survey made it possible to distinguish local regional growth factors in Poland’s voivodeships. In most of them, the rates of growth (or decline) in the number of employed men and women were at similar levels and in the same direction (Table 1). The exceptions were Lubuskie and Małopolskie Voivodeships, in which positive growth rates in the number of employed men and negative growth rates in the number of employed women were recorded simultaneously, while the opposite situation occurred in Śląskie Voivodeship. The largest difference between the rates of change in the number of employed men and women occurred in the Wielkopolskie Voivodeship, where the regional growth rate of women exceeded the growth rate of the number of employed men by 9.07 p.p.

The rate of change in the number of employed people covering the period 2011–2021 was 5.37%, indicating a 5.37% increase in the number of employed in Poland in the present period. Comparing the regional growth rates in Poland, one can see a very high degree of their differentiation (S = 10.39%, V_s = 547.14%). The highest growth rate in the number of employees was recorded in the Wielkopolska Voivodeship, the value of which is almost four times the average national growth rate. In addition to the Wielkopolskie Voivodeship, growth rates exceeding the value of national growth took place in the Pomorskie, Mazowieckie, Dolnośląskie, and Zachodniopomorskie Voivodeships (Table 1). In the period under review, as many as seven voivodeships recorded a negative regional growth rate, i.e., Lubelskie, Podkarpackie, Świętokrzyskie, Podlaskie, Łódzkie, Warmińsko-Mazurskie, and Opole Voivodeships, which indicates a decline in the number of working people in the above voivodeships. The largest decline in the period under review was recorded in Lubelskie Voivodeship.

The SSA procedure makes it possible to determine pure regional growth for each surveyed unit (in this study, for each voivodeship) and to isolate the structural effect and the geographic effect in each unit, making it possible to determine which effect has the main impact on the changes taking place in the regions. The results of this study show that in the classical approach, changes in the structures of the number of employees in the voivodeships in relation to the national trend did not affect the growth rates of the voivodeships, and the rates of structural change of the regions ran in them at a similar level to the Polish average. Instead, the growth rates of the regions were determined by internal changes related to competitiveness with other regions. A positive competitive effect in the classical method of share shifts was observed in five voivodeships, i.e., the Wielkopolska, Pomorskie, Mazowieckie, Dolnośląskie, and Zachodniopomorskie voivodeships (Table 2), which means that the growth of the number of employees in the above-mentioned voivodeships is stronger compared to other Polish voivodeships.

A study that took into account spatial interactions between regions, i.e., the inclusion of a neighborhood weighting matrix procedure between voivodeships, however, yielded different results. In contrast to the insignificant values of SSA structural effects, the structural effects obtained using SSSA indicated the existence of seven voivodeships in which there were favorable changes in the structure of the number of employees in relation to neighboring voivodeships. The highest rate of such changes was recorded in the Zachodniopomorskie Voivodeship (8.51%), while the lowest value (-13.59%) was recorded in the Małopolskie Voivodeship, indicating that its neighboring regions show better results than it in terms of the structure of the employed. In this study, the analysis of competitiveness is of the greatest importance, because it is the one that allows us to assess the impact of neighboring voivodeships on each other. Determining the values of geographic effects in the SSSA method for six voivodeships of Poland (i.e., dolnośląskiego, małopolskiego, mazowieckiego, pomorskiego, śląskiego i wielkopolskiego), the values of the geographic effect were positive, which indicates the positive influence of the surrounding regions on the growth of the number of employed people. It should be noted here that the above-mentioned voivodeships are the voivodeships with the largest number of employed people in Poland (in 2021, they were among the top seven voivodeships in Poland in terms of the number of employed people), and the positive value of the geographic effect may be the result of people migrating from neighboring voivodeships to take up employment. When analyzing the differences in the results of the SSA and SSSA geographic effects, attention should be paid to the Zachodniopomorskie Voivodeship, which, despite a relatively good situation regarding the number of people employed (positive total effect), recorded a low geographic effect with the SSSA method (-7.93%), which may be due to its neighborhood with the Wielkopolskie and Pomorskie Voivodeships.

The results of the obtained surveys of the number of the unemployed in 2011–2021 take into account the destimulating effect of the feature, on the situation in the national and regional labor markets.

Analogous to the case of the number of employed people, the growth rate of the number of unemployed women and men was at a similar level and in the same direction in most voivodeships, with the exception of Kujawsko-Pomorskie, Pomorskie, and Opolskie Voivodeships, where positive growth rates were recorded for the regional number of unemployed women with a negative growth rate for the number of unemployed men, and with the exception of Łódzkie Voivodeship, where the situation was the opposite (Table 3). The largest differences in the growth rate of unemployed men and women occurred in the Pomorskie (5.21 p.p.) and Podlaskie (5.06 p.p.) voivodeships. The average national rate of change in the number of the unemployed in the 2011–2021 period was -54.85%, which indicates a positive phenomenon in the national labor market, i.e., a decrease in the number of the unemployed in the period under review by about 54.85%. Regional growth rates in Poland are characterized by low variability (V_s = 10.97%, S = 6.10%).

All voivodeships in Poland in the present period recorded negative regional growth rates in the number of the unemployed (Table 3), which indicates positive changes in each voivodeship of Poland during the present period. The strongest change was recorded in Lubuskie Voivodeship (-69.29%) and the weakest in Lubelskie Voivodeship (-45.9%).

The total effect of the structural–geographical analysis of changes in the number of the unemployed took positive values for six voivodeships (Table 4), which means that the rate of decline in the number of the unemployed in the Lubelskie, Małopolskie, Mazowieckie, Podkarpackie, Podlaskie, and Świętokrzyskie voivodeships was lower than the average for Poland. The rate of change in the number of the unemployed in the present period was most similar to the national one in the Opolskie Voivodeship, for which the total effect was -0.31%. The calculation of the structural effect of the classical SSA for the number of unemployed gave a similar result as for the number of employed, i.e., changes in the structures of the number of unemployed in voivodeships in relation to the national trend did not affect or had a negligible effect on voivodeship growth rates and ran at a similar level to the Polish average. The rates of change in the regions were mainly determined by internal changes associated that were related to competitiveness with other regions. In the second variant of the study, i.e., taking into account the neighborhood between regions, the rates of change in the number of the unemployed in voivodeships were caused by both structural changes and changes related to the competitiveness of the area. The results of the SSSA indicate that half of the voivodeships show favorable changes in the structure of the number of the unemployed (in relation to neighboring regions), i.e., the voivodeships of dolnośląskim, kujawsko-pomorskim, lubuskim, łódzkim, opolskim, pomorskim, and wielkopolskim i zachodniopomorskim, with changes being strongest in the dolnośląskim Voivodeship and Zachodniopomorskie. Turning to the analysis of competitiveness on the basis of the SSSA, attention should be paid to the Mazowieckie Voivodeship, which took the largest value of the geographic effect (7.16%), indicating the relatively strong influence of neighboring voivodeships on the change in the number of the unemployed in the region. A positive geographic effect outside of the Mazowieckie Voivodeship also occurred in ten other voivodeships. In contrast, the smallest effect occurred in the Lubuskie Voivodeship.

The procedure for analyzing share shifts makes it possible to conduct a detailed analysis of structural change. The study calculated the structural shift factor for each component, i.e., for women and for men, both when determining the structural factors of the number of the employed and the unemployed (Table 5).

The values of the structural factors of regional growth were at low levels for both the number of the employed and the unemployed for both genders. The rate of growth in the number of employed women during the period under review was slightly higher than the average national growth in the number of total employed. Analyzing the structural factors for the unemployed, it should be noted that a higher rate of decline in the number of unemployed occurred in the male group.

To achieve the research objective, i.e., to identify the most attractive voivodeships in terms of the labor market, an attempt was made to create a ranking of voivodeships taking into account both total effects for the number of employed and unemployed. Due to the fact that in this study, it is desirable to achieve the highest total effect for the employed with the lowest possible effect for the unemployed, a ranking was prepared indicating the differences in these values. Table 6 presents the results of measuring the differences in the obtained effects for each voivodeship studied.