<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>The valuation of risky debt is central to theoretical and empirical work in corporate finance. Although much is known on the returns and valuation of bonds, there is hardly a consensus on the risk components of the yield spreads. This article aims to investigate the effect of investor sentiment as a systematic risk factor on speculative bond yield spreads. After applying correlation analysis to determine the strength of linear association between these two variables, a vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis and impulse response tests are used to examine the relationship between these two variables. The sample period extends from January 1997 to August 2014. In the VAR models, speculative bond spreads and consumer confidence index are used as endogenous variables. The results show that sentiment covaries with the yield spread and have a negative effect on them. The spread level of the previous period seems to be a statistically significant determinant of the current period sentiment. Empirical findings imply that investor sentiment is a systematic risk factor in risky bond markets.</p></abstract>

The valuation of risky debt is central to theoretical and empirical work in corporate finance. Although much is known on the returns and valuation of bonds, there is hardly a consensus on the risk components of the yield spreads. This article aims to investigate the effect of investor sentiment as a systematic risk factor on speculative bond yield spreads. After applying correlation analysis to determine the strength of linear association between these two variables, a vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis and impulse response tests are used to examine the relationship between these two variables. The sample period extends from January 1997 to August 2014. In the VAR models, speculative bond spreads and consumer confidence index are used as endogenous variables. The results show that sentiment covaries with the yield spread and have a negative effect on them. The spread level of the previous period seems to be a statistically significant determinant of the current period sentiment. Empirical findings imply that investor sentiment is a systematic risk factor in risky bond markets.

Investor Sentiment and Speculative Bond Yield Spreads

Foundations of Management

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

{"article-title":"Investor Sentiment and Speculative Bond Yield Spreads"}

The valuation of risky debt is central to theoretical and empirical work in corporate finance. Although much is known on the returns and valuation of bonds,...

Investor Sentiment and Speculative Bond Yield Spreads

Publié en ligne: 02 oct. 2019

Pages: 177 - 186

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/fman-2019-0015

Mots clés
investor sentiment, speculative bonds, bond spreads, VAR analysis, junk bonds

© 2019 Gozde Turkmen Muldur et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Investor Sentiment and Speculative Bond Yield Spreads

Publié en ligne: 02 oct. 2019

Pages: 177 - 186

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/fman-2019-0015

Mots clésinvestor sentiment, speculative bonds, bond spreads, VAR analysis, junk bonds

© 2019 Gozde Turkmen Muldur et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Mots clés
investor sentiment, speculative bonds, bond spreads, VAR analysis, junk bonds