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Are Pain and Suffering Awards (Un-)Predictable? Evidence from Germany

Magdalena Flatscher-Thöni
Magdalena Flatscher-Thöni
, 
Andrea M. Leiter
Andrea M. Leiter
 et 
Hannes Winner
Hannes Winner
   | 15 oct. 2019
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Publié en ligne: 15 oct. 2019
Pages: 199 - 219
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/danb-2019-0011
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© 2019 Magdalena Flatscher-Thöni et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Figure 1

Distribution of DPS awardsNotes: Panel A plots the whole distribution of DPS awards, while Panel B focuses on compensations below the median (= EUR 5.460).
Distribution of DPS awardsNotes: Panel A plots the whole distribution of DPS awards, while Panel B focuses on compensations below the median (= EUR 5.460).

Figure 2

DPS awards over gender and ageNotes: Bold lines within the boxes represent the median of (log) compensations. The boundaries of the boxes indicate the interquartile range, i.e., the two quartiles at the center of the distribution. The whiskers in the plots have a length of 1,5 times the interquartile range. Entries outside the whiskers refer to observations in the upper or lower tails of the distribution. The dashed line represents the overall median (=8,605), which is close to the mean reported in Table 1.
DPS awards over gender and ageNotes: Bold lines within the boxes represent the median of (log) compensations. The boundaries of the boxes indicate the interquartile range, i.e., the two quartiles at the center of the distribution. The whiskers in the plots have a length of 1,5 times the interquartile range. Entries outside the whiskers refer to observations in the upper or lower tails of the distribution. The dashed line represents the overall median (=8,605), which is close to the mean reported in Table 1.

Figure 3

DPS awards and severity of painNotes: See notes to Figure 2. *Includes 98 observations and collects the ones of permanent major (2 observations), permanent grave (1) and permanent significant injuries (95).
DPS awards and severity of painNotes: See notes to Figure 2. *Includes 98 observations and collects the ones of permanent major (2 observations), permanent grave (1) and permanent significant injuries (95).

Figure 4

DPS awards over court type and years before/after the change in German tort lawNotes: See notes to Figure 2. FI and SI denote the first and second instances; DC, RC and PC represent the District, Regional and Province Court, respectively. Years before/after the change in German tort law are indicated as “<2002/>2002”.
DPS awards over court type and years before/after the change in German tort lawNotes: See notes to Figure 2. FI and SI denote the first and second instances; DC, RC and PC represent the District, Regional and Province Court, respectively. Years before/after the change in German tort law are indicated as “<2002/>2002”.

Figure 5

Residual plotNotes: Linear prediction is based on the linear regression of Model D in Table 2. The slope parameter (standard error) of the dashed line (regression of predicted values on residuals) amounts to about −0,010 (0,026), being highly insignificant.
Residual plotNotes: Linear prediction is based on the linear regression of Model D in Table 2. The slope parameter (standard error) of the dashed line (regression of predicted values on residuals) amounts to about −0,010 (0,026), being highly insignificant.

Injury severity levels according to NAIC-classification

Severity of the injuryDescription
Emotional injuryFright, no physical damage
Temporary InsignificantTemporary lacerations, contusions, minor scars, rash; no delay in recovery
Temporary MinorInfections, misset fracture, fall in hospital; recovery delayed
Temporary MajorBurns, surgical material left, drug side effect, brain damage; recovery delayed
Permanent MinorLoss of fingers, loss or damage to organs; includes non-disabling injuries
Permanent SignificantDeafness, loss of limb, loss of eye, loss of one kidney or lung
Permanent MajorParaplegia, blindness, loss of two limbs, brain damage
Permanent GraveQuadriplegia, severe brain damage, lifelong care or fatal prognosis
Death

Estimation results

Model AModel BModel CModel D
Coef.SECoef.SECoef.SECoef.SE
A. Victim-specific characteristics
Female0,0090,044−0,0340,0570,0160,0650,1920,174
Young0,0680,108
Adult−0,0230,086
Retired−0,1810,142
Age in years−0,0040,002**−0,0050,004
B. Injury-specific characteristics
Contributory negligence−0,0100,002***−0,0090,002***−0,0080,003***−0,0110,006*
More injuries0,7320,048***0,7630,062***0,8540,075***1,0290,162***
Emotional injury0,5620,089***0,6000,119***0,5130,158***0,4110,183
Temporary minor0,6790,057***0,6170,077***0,5590,091***0,4350,183**
Temporary major1,6750,106***1,6530,122***1,5990,131***1,7650,241***
Permanent minor0,9460,089***0,9340,115***0,9930,136***0,8430,300***
Permanent serious a)2,2480,129***2,1690,143***1,9860,154***2,2810,372***
Death1,0010,226***1,1920,306***1,1230,342***1,2630,731*
C. Procedural-specific determinants
First instance Regional Court2,1220,106***2,4060,169***2,6940,225***2,6400,222***
Second instance Regional Court0,7250,142***1,1480,261***1,1290,301***1,0410,304***
Second instance Province Court2,2750,108***2,4970,170***2,6670,222***2,6160,221***
Case disputed in Eastern Germany−0,0520,074−0,1040,093−0,0660,118−0,0690,121
Case disputed in Northern Germany−0,0290,0590,0480,0780,0800,0910,0930,092
Case disputed in Southern Germany0,0250,0530,1140,0680,1010,0790,0980,081
Lawyer First instance District Court0,4190,103***0,4510,171***0,4650,230**0,4100,228*
Time trend0,0390,004***0,0480,005***0,0490,006***0,0510,006***
D. Interaction terms
Female x injury-specific char. (8 interactions)NoNoNoYes b)
Age x injury-specific char. (8 interactions)NoNoNoYes c)
Observations2.0821.181833833
R20,6260,6280,6360,640

Descriptive statistics

MeanS.d.Min.Max.
Dependent variable
Compensation in 2005 EUR (Thsd.)22,30354,0250,069657,70
Log Compensation8,6141,6904,22813,397
A. Victim-specific characteristics
Female [D]0,4190,4930,0001,000
Age30,32618,5820,50085,000
Childa) [D]0,1870,3900,0001,000
Young [D]0,1170,3210,0001,000
Adult [D]0,6490,4780,0001,000
Retired [D]0,0480,2130,0001,000
B. Injury-specific characteristics
Contributory negligence (in %)4,84413,6760,00080,000
More injuries [D]0,5800,4940,0001,000
Emotional injury [D]0,0650,2470,0001,000
Temporary insignificanta) [D]0,2970,4570,0001,000
Temporary minor [D]0,3960,4890,0001,000
Temporary major [D]0,0880,2830,0001,000
Permanent minor [D]0,0970,2960,0001,000
Permanent significant [D]0,0420,2010,0001,000
Permanent majorb) [D]0,0010,0300,0001,000
Permanent gravec) [D]0,0000,0210,0001,000
Death [D]0,0130,1150,0001,000
C. Procedural-specific determinants
First instance District Courta) [D]0,2420,4290,0001,000
First instance Regional Court [D]0,3890,4880,0001,000
Second instance Regional Court [D]0,0400,1950,0001,000
Second instance Province Court [D]0,3290,4700,0001,000
Case disputed in Eastern Germany [D]0,1000,3000,0001,000
Case disputed in Northern Germany [D]0,1800,3840,0001,000
Case disputed in Southern Germany [D]0,3200,4670,0001,000
Case disputed in Western Germanya) [D]0,4060,4910,0001,000
Lawyerd) [D]0,8310,3750,0001,000
Sentence after year 2002 [D]0,1460,3530,0001,000

Analysis of variance

Absolutein %d.fMSESharea)
Model1.200,3363,61866,69
A. Victim-specific characteristics0,2 [0,3]
Female0,050,010,05
Age in years3,820,213,82
B. Injury-specific characteristics28,9 [45,5]
Contributory negligence9,400,519,40
More injuries115,326,11115,32
Emotional injury7,930,417,93
Temporary minor32,271,7132,27
Temporary major151,248,01151,24
Perminent minor55,202,9155,20
Perminent serious b)161,138,51161,13
Death13,660,7113,66
C. Procedural-specific determinants11,4 [18,0]
First instance Regional Court100,465,31100,46
Second instance Regional Court11,020,6111,02
Second instance Province Court99,675,3199,67
Case disputed in Eastern Germany0,290,010,29
Case disputed in Northern Germany0,610,010,61
Case disputed in Southern Germany1,370,011,37
Lawyer First instance District Court2,700,112,70
Time trend62,293,3162,293,3 [5,2]
Overall mean (constant)371,3919,71371,8919,7 [31,0]
Residual688,3936,4
Total1.888,72100,0100,0
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