Accès libre

The Economic Complexity of the Visegrád Countries and the Role of Trade with Germany

Semanur Soyyiğit
Semanur Soyyiğit
 et 
Bartosz Michalski
Bartosz Michalski
   | 23 oct. 2022
Central European Economic Journal's Cover Image
À propos de cet article
Article précédent
Article suivant
Citez
Publié en ligne: 23 oct. 2022
Pages: 219 - 236
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2022-0013
Mots clés
© 2022 Semanur Soyyiğit et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

The GL-index of V4 countries in trade with Germany in low-tech goods (2001–2019).Source: Authors' own calculations based on Trade Map (2021).
The GL-index of V4 countries in trade with Germany in low-tech goods (2001–2019).Source: Authors' own calculations based on Trade Map (2021).

Figure 2

The GL index of V4 countries in trade with Germany in mid-tech goods (2001–2019).Source: Authors' own calculations based on Trade Map (2021).
The GL index of V4 countries in trade with Germany in mid-tech goods (2001–2019).Source: Authors' own calculations based on Trade Map (2021).

Figure 3

The GL index of V4 countries in trade with Germany in high-tech goods (2001–2019)Source: Authors' own calculations based on Trade Map (2021).
The GL index of V4 countries in trade with Germany in high-tech goods (2001–2019)Source: Authors' own calculations based on Trade Map (2021).

Figure 4

The GL-index of V4 countries in high-quality vertical trade with Germany in low-tech goods (2001–2019).Source: Authors' own calculations based on Trade Map (2021).
The GL-index of V4 countries in high-quality vertical trade with Germany in low-tech goods (2001–2019).Source: Authors' own calculations based on Trade Map (2021).

Figure 5

The GL-index of V4 countries in high-quality vertical trade with Germany in mid-tech goods (2001–2019).Source: Authors' own calculations based on Trade Map (2021).
The GL-index of V4 countries in high-quality vertical trade with Germany in mid-tech goods (2001–2019).Source: Authors' own calculations based on Trade Map (2021).

Figure 6

The GL index of V4 countries in high-quality vertical trade with Germany in high-tech goods (2001–2019).Source: Authors' own calculations based on Trade Map (2021).
The GL index of V4 countries in high-quality vertical trade with Germany in high-tech goods (2001–2019).Source: Authors' own calculations based on Trade Map (2021).

Random coefficient regression model coefficients for Model 1

Country Czechia Hungary Poland Slovakia
GL_HT −0.0704 (0.404) 0.1050 (0.563) 1.2351*** (0.249) 1.289*** (0.5005)
GL_MT 0.2208 (0.579) 0.0689 (0.512) −1.4072 (1.283) −0.279 (0.241)
GL_LT 1.3453 (1.066) 1.7504* (0.947) 0.1776 (0.794) −0.511 (0.643)
FDI −0.0087 (0.006) 0.0001 (0.0004) 0.0016 (0.0098) 0.009 (0.0064)
LogImport −1.352* (0.694) −1.251* (0.694) −1.2075* (0.698) −2.827*** (0.673)
LogRD 0.6005 (0.454) 0.1768 (0.553) 1.228** (0.533) −0.109 (0.287)
LogResearcher 0.841*** (0.144) 1.1051*** (0.183) −0.4478** (0.215) 1.776*** (0.307)

Variables, definitions, data sources, and summary statistics

Variables Definition Data Source Num. of Observation Mean Std. Dev.
ECI Economic complexity index Harvard MIT (2022) 76 1.2642 0.2606
GL_HT GL-index with Germany for high-tech product clusters Authors' calculations based on Trade Map (2021) 76 0.3097 0.0953
GL_MT GL-index with Germany for mid-tech product clusters as above 76 0.4728 0.0959
GL_LT GL-index with Germany for low-tech product clusters as above 76 0.4364 0.0609
VERTHQ_HT Vertical trade/high quality with Germany for high-tech product clusters as above 76 0.1180 0.0544
VERTHQ_MT Vertical trade/high quality with Germany for mid-tech product clusters as above 76 0.1655 0.0458
VERTHQ_LT Vertical trade/high quality with Germany for low-tech product clusters as above 76 0.1131 0.0302
Fdi Foreign direct investment, net inflows (% of GDP) World Bank 76 5.9880 12.9742
LogImport Logarithm of share of intermediate and capital goods imports in total imports from Germany Authors' calculations based on UN Comtrade (2022) 76 1.9255 0.0195
LogRD Logarithm of gross domestic spending on R&D (% of GDP) OECD 76 −0.0234 0.1756
LogResearcher Logarithm of researchers per 1000 employed as above 76 0.7239 0.1103

Correlation Matrices for Model 1 and Model 2

Model 1
GL_HT GL_MT GL_LT Fdi LogImport LogRD LogResearcher
GL_HT 1 - - - - - -
GL_MT 0.7746 1 - - - - -
GL_LT 0.7667 0.7999 1 - - - -
Fdi 0.0161 −0.1464 −0.1509 1 - - -
LogImport −0.3492 −0.2576 −0.1261 −0.0871 1 - -
LogRD 0.7107 0.4893 0.5864 −0.0058 −0.175 1 -
LogResearcher 0.0862 0.0952 0.2062 −0.1306 −0.0371 0.418 1

Variance Inflation Factor

Model 1
GL_HT 1.18
GL_MT 1.23
GL_LT 1.18
Fdi 1.11
LogImport 1.3
LogRD 1.15
LogResearcher 1.07
Mean VIF 1.17

Unit root test results

CADF Unit Root Test
Variables CIPS Statistics
Level 1st difference
ECI −3.717*** -
GL_HT −2.758* -
GL_MT −1.21 −3.724***
GL_LT −1.30 −4.126***
LogImport −2.886** -
LogRD −2.34 −4.113***
LogResearcher −2.93** -
VERTHQ_HT −3.062** -
Im-Pesaran-Shin Unit Root Test
Variables Intercept Intercept - Trend
Fdi −4.23201*** −4.08435***
VERTHQ_MT −2.00021** −2.20049**
VERTHQ_LT −1.36331 −0.64119
Δ VERTHQ_LT −8.86728*** −7.62207***

Cross-section dependency test results

Variables CDLM1 CDLM2 LMadj
ECI 106.5706 27.87753 27.76642
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
GL_HT 19.33611 2.695103 2.583992
(0.003) (0.007) (0.009)
GL_MT 48.55743 11.13057 11.01946
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
GL_LT 34.05162 6.943106 6.831995
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
VERTHQ_HT 53.55607 12.57355 12.46244
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
VERTHQ_MT 10.1532 0.044226 −0.066885
(0.118) (0.964) (0.946)
VERTHQ_LT 14.61022 1.330855 1.219744
(0.024) (0.183) (0.223)
Fdi 14.56701 1.318381 1.20727
(0.024) (0.187) (0.227)
LogImport 30.15403 5.817966 5.706855
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
LogRD 92.42095 23.79288 23.68177
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
LogResearcher 67.20774 16.51445 16.40334
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000)

Parameter constancy test results

Coefficient Model 2 Model 3
χ2 694.57 588.93
(0.000) (0.000)

Random coefficient regression model coefficients for Model 2

Czechia Hungary Poland Slovakia
VERTHQ_HT 1.195*** (0.331) 1.484** (0.649) 2.543*** (0.599) 1.5311*** (0.280)
VERTHQ_MT 0.065 (0.4008) 0.356 (0.766) −1.695** (0.817) −0.6512*** (0.218)
VERTHQ_LT −0.256 (0.395) −0.114 (1.149) −1.993* (1.153) −0.819*** (0.312)
FDI −0.002 (0.004) 0.000 (0.0009) −0.004 (0.0125) −0.006 (0.003)
LogImport −0.9514** (0.446) −1.657*** (0.494) −1.291*** (0.491) −2.544*** (0.468)
LogResearcher 0.4097*** (0.135) 0.9209*** (0.313) 0.300 (0.327) 1.708*** (0.187)
eISSN:
2543-6821
Langue:
Anglais
Périodicité:
Volume Open
Sujets de la revue:
Business and Economics, Political Economics, Economic Theory, Systems and Structures, Microeconomics, Macroecomics, Economic Policy
RSS Feed de la revue