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Has Economic Growth in Balkan Countries Been Pro-Poor in the 2012–2017 period?

Jan Zwierzchowski
Jan Zwierzchowski
 et 
Tomasz Panek
Tomasz Panek
   | 20 mai 2022
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Publié en ligne: 20 mai 2022
Pages: 76 - 92
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2022-0006
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© 2022 Jan Zwierzchowski et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Relationship between PEGR for Watts Index and Social Benefits to the Poor in the Balkan CountriesSource. Own estimates based on EU-SILC.Note. * denotes data points with the statistically significant PEGR estimates.
Relationship between PEGR for Watts Index and Social Benefits to the Poor in the Balkan CountriesSource. Own estimates based on EU-SILC.Note. * denotes data points with the statistically significant PEGR estimates.

Figure 2

Relationship between Modified PPGI Values for Watts Index and Social Benefits to the Poor in the Balkan CountriesSource. Own estimates based on EU-SILC.Note, * denotes data points with the statistically significant PPGI estimates.
Relationship between Modified PPGI Values for Watts Index and Social Benefits to the Poor in the Balkan CountriesSource. Own estimates based on EU-SILC.Note, * denotes data points with the statistically significant PPGI estimates.

Annual Growth Rate in Income and PEGRs for Balkan Countries during 2012–2017

Country and period Annual growth rate in mean income PEGR
relative terms absolute terms
poverty incidence poverty depth poverty severity poverty incidence poverty depth poverty severity
Bulgaria
2012–2013 0.123* 0.068* 0.166* 0.051* 0.045* 0.115* 0.031*
2013–2014 −0.011 −0.013 0.226* 0.006 −0.017 0.230* −0.001
2014–2015 −0.027* −0.058 −0.025* −0.039* −0.108 −0.025* −0.055*
2015–2016 0.152* −0.009 0.059 −0.037 −0.004 0.052 −0.013
2016–2017 0.017 0.015 0.019 0.018 0.009 0.022 0.016
Greece
2012–2013 −0.067* −0.116* −0.068* −0.036* −0.149* −0.063* −0.011
2013–2014 −0.023* 0.478* −0.018 −0.024* 0.86* −0.016 −0.026*
2014–2015 −0.008* −0.015 −0.008 −0.013 −0.018 −0.007 −0.017
2015–2016 0.034* 0.024* 0.033* 0.028* 0.020* 0.032* 0.025*
2016–2017 0.041* 0.024* 0.044* 0.036* 0.018* 0.049* 0.033*
Croatia
2012–2013 0.012* 0.005 0.004 0.009 0.004 0.011 0.006
2013–2014 0.022* 0.006 0.023 0.036 0.004 0.025 −0.021
2014–2015 0.027* 0.020* 0.034 0.021* 0.016* 0.018 0.018*
2015–2016 0.064* 0.028* 0.101* 0.038* 0.018* 0.012* 0.026*
2016–2017 0.077* 0.036* 0.087* 0.044* 0.021* 0.080 0.028*
Romania
2012–2013 0.077* 0.034* 0.097* 0.021 0.022* 0.092* 0.013
2013–2014 0.016 0.011 0.021 0.012 0.008 0.021 0.010
2014–2015 0.018* 0.013* 0.022 0.005 0.010 0.021 0.002
2015–2016 0.085* 0.050* 0.183 0.064* 0.034* −0.403 0.049*
2016–2017 0.218* 0.106* 0.125* 0.102* 0.058* 0.091* 0.053*
Slovenia
2012–2013 0.019* 0.066 0.018 0.005 0.005 0.012 0.004
2013–2014 0.013* 0.007* 0.013* 0.009* 0.005* 0.011 0.007*
2014–2015 0.006* 0.005 0.052 0.005 0.004 0.002 0.005
2015–2016 0.045* 0.028* 0.031 0.029* 0.022* 0.027 0.022*
2016–2017 0.060* 0.034* 0.042* 0.036* 0.023* 0.034* 0.025*
Serbia
2012–13 0.030* 0.021* 0.032* 0.008* 0.015* 0.031* 0.009
2013–14 0.008 0.012 0.001 0.009 0.017 0.002* 0.009
2014–15 0.006 0.010 0.011 0.010 0.008 0.006 0.010
2015–16 0.055* 0.031* 0.117 −0.021* 0.021* 0.070 −0.012*
2016–17 0.067* 0.049* 0.055* 0.052* 0.035* 0.041* 0.039*

Annual Growth Rate of Incomes and Changes in Poverty Indices for Balkan Countries during 2012–2017

Country and period Annual growth rate in mean income Changes in poverty indices (t=2 – t=1)
poverty incidence poverty depth poverty severity
Bulgaria
2012–2013 0.123* −0.053* −0.012*
2013–2014 −0.011 0.012* −0.002 −0.006
2014–2015 −0.027* 0.008* 0.006* 0.009*
2015–2016 0.152* 0.003 0.002 0.004
20162017 0.017 −0.016* −0.012* −0.031*
Greece
2012–2013 −0.067* 0.043* 0.005* −0.039*
2013–2014 −0.023 −0.002 0.002 0.056*
2014–2015 −0.008* 0.005 0.002 0.002
2015–2016 0.034* −0.035* −0.017* −0.044*
2016–2017 0.041* −0.027* −0.020* −0.065*
Croatia
2012–2013 0.012* −0.005 −0.002 −0.007
2013–2014 0.022 −0.003 −0.001 0.003
2014–2015 0.027* −0.024* −0.008* −0.018*
2015–2016 0.064* −0.018* −0.009* −0.014*
2016–2017 0.077* −0.017* −0.009* −0.012*
Romania
2012–2013 0.077* −0.021* −0.004* −0.007
2013–2014 0.016 −0.012* −0.006* −0.011*
2014–2015 0.018* −0.016* −0.008* −0.002
2015–2016 0.085* −0.034* −0.015* −0.040*
2016–2017 0.218* −0.040* −0.013* −0.022*
Slovenia
2012–2013 0.019* −0.004 −0.001 −0.001
2013–2014 0.013* −0.006* −0.003* −0.004*
2014–2015 0.006* −0.011* −0.003* −0.004*
2015–2016 0.045* −0.027* −0.007* −0.009*
2016–2017 0.060* −0.021* −0.006* −0.008*
Serbia
2012–2013 0.030* −0.016* 0.006* 0.021
2013–2014 0.008 0.021* 0.011* 0.060*
2014–2015 0.006 −0.016* −0.004 −0.042*
2015–2016 0.055* −0.029* −0.019* −0.001
2016–2017 0.067* −0.039* −0.012* −0.039*

Patterns of Growth in Balkan Countries during 2012–2017

Country and period Poverty reducing pro-poor growth measured by PEGR for Watts index and RPPG
PEGR RPPG
Bulgaria
2012–2013 +* +*
2013–2014 + +*
2014–2015 −* −*
2015–2016 − −
2016–2017 + +*
Greece
2012–2013 −* +*
2013–2014 −* −
2014–2015 − +
2015–2016 +* +*
2016–2017 +* +*
Croatia
2012–2013 + +
2013–2014 + −
2014–2015 +* +*
2015–2016 +* +*
2016–2017 +* +*
Romania
2012–2013 + +*
2013–2014 + +*
2014–2015 + +*
2015–2016 +* +*
2016–2017 +* +*
Slovenia
2012–2013 + +
2013–2014 +* +*
2014–2015 + +*
2015–2016 +* +*
2016–2017 +* +*
Serbia
2012–2013 +* +*
2013–2014 + −*
2014–2015 + +
2015–2016 −* +
2016–2017 +* +*

Annual Growth Rates in Income and RPPG for Balkan Countries during 2012–2017

Country and period Annual mean of quantile growth rates ( g12(q)¯ \overline {{g_{12}}\left(q \right)} ) RPPG
Bulgaria
2012–2013 0.131* 0.110*
2013–2014 −0.001 0.063*
2014–2015 −0.034* −0.070*
2015–2016 −0.105* −0.014
2016–2017 0.043* 0.227*
Greece
2012–2013 0.005 0.269*
2013–2014 −0.023* −0.040
2014–2015 0.000 0.012
2015–2016 0.076* 0.201*
2016–2017 0.079* 0.207*
Croatia
2012–2013 0.012* 0.026
2013–2014 0.017* −0.003
2014–2015 0.045* 0.111*
2015–2016 0.074* 0.105*
2016–2017 0.086 0.114*
Romania
2012–2013 0.068* 0.055*
2013–2014 0.027* 0.030*
2014–2015 0.036* 0.069*
2015–2016 0.091* 0.077*
2016–2017 0.226* 0.194*
Slovenia
2012–2013 0.018* 0.010
2013–2014 0.017* 0.038*
2014–2015 0.011* 0.038*
2015–2016 0.056* 0.089*
2016–2017 0.066* 0.091*
Serbia
2012–2013 0.048* 0.088*
2013–2014 −0.033* −0.139*
2014–2015 0.258 1.023
2015–2016 0.074* 0.023
2016–2017 0.191* 0.635*
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