Analysis of Trade Effect in Post-Tpp Era: Based on Gravity Model and Gtap Model
| 28 févr. 2020
À propos de cet article
Publié en ligne: 28 févr. 2020
Pages: 61 - 70
Reçu: 03 déc. 2019
Accepté: 14 janv. 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/amns.2020.1.00007
Mots clés
© 2020 Yanan Zhao, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Results of regression analysis considering only economic variables.
| Results (1) | Results (2) | Results (3) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| C | 13.43533 (1.275376) | −4.648183 (−1.796719)* | 0.994369 (0.435299) |
| LnY0 | −0.627265 (−1.770844) | ||
| LnY | 0.968379 (22.07976) | 0.952661 (22.18039) | 0.886442 (21.35394) |
| LnD0 | 0.399613 (1.902863) | 0.358309 (1.716804) | −0.063559 (−0.337587) |
| UCFTA | 0.760355 (2.624008) | 0.626964 (2.240704) | |
| UAFTA | −0.931363 (−2.905161) | −1.015221 (−3.201859) | |
| UPFTA | 0.967220 (2.310400) | 0.785001 (1.934479) | |
| USFTA | 1.108001 (4.108361) | 1.017336 (3.842051) | 1.159911 (4.200554) |
| NAFTA | 2.172070 (7.698747) | 2.127561 (7.571092) | 1.738967 (6.446346) |
| Adjusted | 0.882218 | 0. 86 9761 | 0. 87 6598 |
| F-statistic | 146.0602 | 164.1042 | 259.8452 |
| Prob (F-stat) | 0.000 | 0.000000 | 0.000 |
| DW stat | 0.323406 | 0.297837 | 0.225315 |
The United States attracts all Asia-Pacific countries to join (including China).
| GDP change | Import change % | Export change % | Trade difference million dollars | Welfare changes millions of dollars | Terms of trade % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 0.35 | 0.91 | 1.19 | −2085.54 | 8926.35 | 0.60 |
| CHN | −1.20 | 5.15 | 4.28 | −1125.30 | −2114.70 | −0.97 |
| JPN | 0.52 | 3.69 | 3.13 | 616.26 | 10,324.23 | 0.77 |
| KOR | 0.55 | 4.84 | 4.11 | 300.87 | 2,372.89 | 0.28 |
| P4 | 1.35 | 1.11 | 1.13 | 247.22 | 1835.84 | 0.81 |
| ROASN | 0.68 | 1.99 | 1.79 | 599.94 | 2308.79 | 0.47 |
| ROAPC | −1.60 | 0.55 | −0.02 | −2354.28 | −2345.19 | −0.84 |
| OPTPP | 0.04 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 1.96 | 191.54 | 0.05 |
| Rest of World | −0.51 | −0.63 | −0.56 | 3798.88 | −9243.84 | −0.10 |
Regression analysis of political factors.
| Variable | Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | −11.47626 | 2.431079 | −4.720645 | 0.0000 |
| LOG(Y | 1.240620 | 0.062833 | 19.74471 | 0.0000 |
| LOG(D0 | 0.346416 | 0.182043 | 1.902931 | 0.0589 |
| NAFTA | 1.120052 | 0.300569 | 3.726439 | 0.0003 |
| UNION1 | −1.624712 | 0.323080 | −5.028819 | 0.0000 |
| UNION3 | −1.748117 | 0.247217 | −7.071175 | 0.0000 |
| 0.887926 | Mean dependent var | 23.84521 | ||
| Adjusted | 0.884402 | SD dependent var | 2.055424 | |
| SE of regression | 0.698839 | Sum squared resid | 77.65168 | |
| F-statistic | 251.9415 | Durbin-Watson stat | 0.416290 | |
| Prob (F-statistic) | 0.000000 | |||