Tourists Forecast Lanzhou Based on the Baolan High-Speed Railway by the Arima Model
Publié en ligne: 28 févr. 2020
Pages: 55 - 60
Reçu: 03 déc. 2019
Accepté: 14 janv. 2020
© 2020 Lijun Li et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
AIC equivalence of different AR values
| AIC | SC | HQ |
---|
AR(3) | 35.06211 | 35.04297 | 34.94810 |
AR(2) | 35.25883 | 35.40352 | 35.16763 |
AR(1) | 35.45157 | 35.56009 | 35.38317 |
ARCH test
| AIC | SC | HQ |
---|
Lag order 3 | 59.53666 | 59.50575 | 59.15463 |
Lag order 2 | 59.06760 | 59.09739 | 58.86668 |
Lag order 1 | 58.98383 | 59.02766 | 58.88925 |
Comparison of actual and predicted passenger flow to Lanzhou during 2009–2019
Years | Actual value | Predictive value | Relative error (%) | Average error (%) |
---|
2009 | 70,01000 | 69,213,96 | −1.14 | 1.03 |
2010 | 88,75000 | 86,820,37 | −2.17 |
2011 | 14,036000 | 13,726,730 | −2.20 |
2012 | 21,015100 | 20,804,175 | −1.00 |
2013 | 26,025200 | 25,844,980 | −0.69 |
2014 | 30,307700 | 29,978,300 | −1.09 |
2015 | 37,001800 | 37,101,749 | 0.27 |
2016 | 53,375700 | 52,987,680 | −0.73 |
2017 | 54,314000 | 54,283,760 | −0.05 |
2018 | 67,185600 | 66,904,703 | −0.42 |
2019 | 75,240032 | 74,826,047 | −0.55 |