Trend Analysis of Dry Bean Production, Yield, Consumption, Import and Export in South Africa from 1970 to 2019

Fig. 1.

Fig. 2.

Fig. 3.

Fig. 4.

Instability index for the dry bean area, production, yield, consumption, import and export from 1970–2019

Period	Area	Production	Yield	Consumption	Import	Export
1970–79	3.03	2.24	25.25	0.53	4.94	5.65
1980–89	1.68	3.72	18.85	0.55	15.72	5.17
1990–99	5.34	9.08	23.43	0.99	14.28	5.98
2000–09	2.90	5.35	18.24	1.11	2.20	7.79
2010–2019	4.90	6.43	14.92	0.32	0.62	3.91
1970–2019	3.56	6.35	16.68	1.18	9.06	9.34

Trend in dry bean area, production, yield and consumption from 1970–2019 (5-year average)

Periods	Area (000 ha)	Production (000 t)	Yield (t ha−1)	Consumption (000 t)	Imports (t)	Exports (t)
1970–1974	74	66	0.929	53	5 796	4 900
1975–1979	103	89	0.891	61	2 705	6 502
1980–1984	75	79	1.065	61	9 111	5 552
1985–1989	82	109	1.327	73	8 330	16 654
1990–1994	73	72	0.978	102	58 679	12 999
1995–1999	57	70	1.240	102	42 474	4 450
2000–2004	56	80	1.435	123	53 259	6 049
2005–2009	48	63	1.333	131	79 398	2 834
2010–2014	49	67	1.354	139	78 513	2 909
2015–2019	48	67	1.381	86	26 443	13 530

Compound growth rates in the dry bean area, production, yield and consumption from 1970–2019

Period	Area	Production	Yield	Consumption	Import	Export
1970–79	6.758*	5.517**	−1.162	2.6598*	−19.287*	12.414
1980–89	1.533	5.835*	4.237	2.760*	4.836	20.021*
1990–99	−3.903	0.582	4.668	1.147	22.428	−15.334*
2000–09	−3.696*	−3.696	−0.137	1.943	10.725*	−9.749
2010–19	2.411	3.520	1.010	−8.199**	−22.727**	27.22**
1970–2019	−1.497**	−0.472	1.040**	1.880**	7.443**	−0.282

Compound growth rates and instability index in provincial contribution of dry bean production from 2000/2001–2019/2020

Province	CAGR	CDI
Western Cape	−1.65	8.96
Northern Cape	2.34	9.82
KwaZulu Natal	4.70*	5.68
Mpumalanga	−9.25**	1.35
Northwest	1.94	5.05
Eastern Cape	2.571	11.30
Free State	2.68*	2.88
Limpopo	18.59**	4.81
Gauteng	−6.74**	3.23