<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>The paper deals with the accuracy of the real GDP growth forecasts produced by two Czech non-governmental institutions: the Czech-Moravian Confederation of Trade Unions (CMKOS) and the Czech Banking Association (CBA) in the years 2007-2014 and 2011-2014 respectively. Utilizing a research method composed of simple (AFE), scale-dependent (RMSE) as well as relative (MASE) error measures, we found out that (i) CMKOS predictions achieved a lower forecasting error on average, beginning with a notable overestimation in the first turnover point from growth to decline (2008-2009), yet followed by gradual improvement resulting in superior accuracy over set benchmarks (Ministry of Finance, Czech National Bank, OECD) in later years (2010-2014). The CBA predictions, on the other hand, exhibited (ii) a high level of interconnection with official bodies (MF, CNB), but with overall inferior forecasting accuracy, despite the shorter time frame (2011-2014). Overall, the study suggests that of the two surveyed non-governmental bodies, only CMKOS forecasts represent a viable alternative to the official predictions published by the Ministry of Finance or the Czech National Bank, as CBA forecasts were found to be a less accurate satellite of these bodies.</p></abstract>

The paper deals with the accuracy of the real GDP growth forecasts produced by two Czech non-governmental institutions: the Czech-Moravian Confederation of Trade Unions (CMKOS) and the Czech Banking Association (CBA) in the years 2007-2014 and 2011-2014 respectively. Utilizing a research method composed of simple (AFE), scale-dependent (RMSE) as well as relative (MASE) error measures, we found out that (i) CMKOS predictions achieved a lower forecasting error on average, beginning with a notable overestimation in the first turnover point from growth to decline (2008-2009), yet followed by gradual improvement resulting in superior accuracy over set benchmarks (Ministry of Finance, Czech National Bank, OECD) in later years (2010-2014). The CBA predictions, on the other hand, exhibited (ii) a high level of interconnection with official bodies (MF, CNB), but with overall inferior forecasting accuracy, despite the shorter time frame (2011-2014). Overall, the study suggests that of the two surveyed non-governmental bodies, only CMKOS forecasts represent a viable alternative to the official predictions published by the Ministry of Finance or the Czech National Bank, as CBA forecasts were found to be a less accurate satellite of these bodies.

The accuracy of alternative GDP growth forecasts: Do they represent a credible alternative to the official ones?

University of Finance and Administration, Prague. Address: Estonská 500, 101 00 Praha 10

Review of Economic Perspectives

This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Public License.

The paper deals with the accuracy of the real GDP growth forecasts produced by two Czech non-governmental institutions: the Czech-Moravian Confederation of...

The accuracy of alternative GDP growth forecasts: Do they represent a credible alternative to the official ones?

Publié en ligne: 20 oct. 2015

Pages: 291 - 304

Reçu: 26 mai 2015

Accepté: 01 sept. 2015

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/revecp-2015-0021

Mots clés
GDP forecast, Scale-dependent error measures, Relative error measures, Alternative macroeconomic forecasts, Czech-Moravian Confederation of Trade Unions, Czech Banking Association

© 2015 Jiří Šindelář, published by De Gruyter Open

This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Public License.

The accuracy of alternative GDP growth forecasts: Do they represent a credible alternative to the official ones?

Publié en ligne: 20 oct. 2015

Pages: 291 - 304

Reçu: 26 mai 2015

Accepté: 01 sept. 2015

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/revecp-2015-0021

Mots clésGDP forecast, Scale-dependent error measures, Relative error measures, Alternative macroeconomic forecasts, Czech-Moravian Confederation of Trade Unions, Czech Banking Association

© 2015 Jiří Šindelář, published by De Gruyter Open

This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Public License.

Mots clés
GDP forecast, Scale-dependent error measures, Relative error measures, Alternative macroeconomic forecasts, Czech-Moravian Confederation of Trade Unions, Czech Banking Association