<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

<p>The method introduced in this study for future projection of coastline changes hits the vital need of communicating the potential climate change impact on the coast in the 21th century. A quantitative method called the Dynamic Equilibrium Shore Model (DESM) has been developed to hindcast historical sediment mass budgets and to reconstruct a paleo Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The forward mode of the DESM model relies on paleo-scenarios reconstructed by the DESM model assuming stationary wind-wave climate. A linear relationship between the sea level, coastline changes and sediment budget is formulated and proven by the least square regression method. In addition to its forward prediction of coastline changes, this linear relationship can also estimate the sediment budget by using the information on the coastline and relative sea level changes. Wind climate change is examined based on regional climate model data. Our projections for the end of the 21st century suggest that the wind and wave climates in the southern Baltic Sea may not change compared to present conditions and that the investigated coastline along the Pomeranian Bay may retreat from 10 to 100 m depending on the location and on the sea level rise which was assumed to be in the range of 0.12 to 0.24 m.</p>
</abstract>

The method introduced in this study for future projection of coastline changes hits the vital need of communicating the potential climate change impact on the coast in the 21th century. A quantitative method called the Dynamic Equilibrium Shore Model (DESM) has been developed to hindcast historical sediment mass budgets and to reconstruct a paleo Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The forward mode of the DESM model relies on paleo-scenarios reconstructed by the DESM model assuming stationary wind-wave climate. A linear relationship between the sea level, coastline changes and sediment budget is formulated and proven by the least square regression method. In addition to its forward prediction of coastline changes, this linear relationship can also estimate the sediment budget by using the information on the coastline and relative sea level changes. Wind climate change is examined based on regional climate model data. Our projections for the end of the 21st century suggest that the wind and wave climates in the southern Baltic Sea may not change compared to present conditions and that the investigated coastline along the Pomeranian Bay may retreat from 10 to 100 m depending on the location and on the sea level rise which was assumed to be in the range of 0.12 to 0.24 m.

A method for assessing the coastline recession due to the sea level rise by assuming stationary wind-wave climate

Oceanological and Hydrobiological Studies

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

The method introduced in this study for future projection of coastline changes hits the vital need of communicating the potential climate change impact on the...

A method for assessing the coastline recession due to the sea level rise by assuming stationary wind-wave climate

Publié en ligne: 30 sept. 2015

Pages: 362 - 380

Reçu: 04 févr. 2015

Accepté: 11 mai 2015

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/ohs-2015-0035

Mots clés
modelling, coastline changes, dynamic equilibrium, sediment budget estimation, climate change

© 2015 Faculty of Oceanography and Geography, University of Gdańsk, Poland

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

A method for assessing the coastline recession due to the sea level rise by assuming stationary wind-wave climate

Publié en ligne: 30 sept. 2015

Pages: 362 - 380

Reçu: 04 févr. 2015

Accepté: 11 mai 2015

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/ohs-2015-0035

Mots clésmodelling, coastline changes, dynamic equilibrium, sediment budget estimation, climate change

© 2015 Faculty of Oceanography and Geography, University of Gdańsk, Poland

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Mots clés
modelling, coastline changes, dynamic equilibrium, sediment budget estimation, climate change