Factors explaining the changes in the rankings of Polish cities’ economic position (1992-2013)
| 30 mars 2018
À propos de cet article
Publié en ligne: 30 mars 2018
Pages: 48 - 55
Reçu: 28 juil. 2017
Accepté: 26 janv. 2018
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/mgrsd-2017-0035
Mots clés
© 2017 University of Warsaw – Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.
Figure 1
Results of OLS regression analyses (progressive selection method)
| Dependent variable | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Change in the ranking 1992-2013 | Change in the ranking 1992-2004 | Change in the ranking 2004 -2013 | |
| R square | 0.552 | 0.623 | 0.213 |
| Adjusted R square | 0.513 | 0.580 | 0.185 |
| Significance of the model | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Distance to the airport in vienna by plane | 0.469 - significance at the 0.001 level | ||
| % of population with higher education 2002 | 0.370 - significance at the 0.001 level | 0.203 - significance at the 0.05 level | |
| TEN-T (location of the airport in the city) | -0.271 - significance at the 0.01 level | ||
| Turn-out in local elections 1998 | 0.332 - significance at the 0.01 level | ||
| The value of export per capita 2005 | 0.203 - significance at the 0.05 level | ||
| Distance to the airport in Hamburg | -0.214 - significance at the 0.05 level | ||
| Losing the status of regional capital | 0.216 - significance at the 0.01 level | ||
| Turn-out in local elections 1990 | -0.471 - significance at the 0.001 level | ||
| Turn-out in local elections 1994 | 0.282 - significance at the 0.05 level | ||
| Distance to the city with direct flight to Munich | -0.198 - significance at the 0.05 level | ||
| Distance to the nearest city with more than 300 thousand inhabitants (in minutes) | 0.312 - significance at the 0.01 level | ||
| Turn-out in the elections to European Parliament in 2003 (w %) | 0.672 - significance at the 0.001 level | ||
| Number of votes „in favor“ as % of potential votes in EU accession referendum | -0.396 - significance at the 0.01 level | ||
| Change in gross value of fixed assets in enterprises per capita 2004-2013 | 0.385 - significance at the 0.001 level | ||
| TEN-T (railway) | 0.235 - significance at the 0.05 level | ||
| The availability of the EU funds in 1991-2006 period | 0.217 - significance at the 0.05 level | ||
Changes in the explanatory power of regression models after adding the variables related to EU integration (hierarchical multiple regression)
| Dependent variable | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change in the ranking 1992-2013 | Change in the ranking 1992-2004 | Change in the ranking 2004 -2013 | ||
| Significance of the model | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.306 | |
| R square | 0.578 | 0.612 | 0.366 | |
| R square after entering to the model block of „EU integration“ variables | 0.868 | 0.765 | 0.715 | |
| R square change | 0.290 | 0.153 | 0.349 | |
| Significance of R square change | 0.075 | 0.401 | ||
Operationalisation of factors explaining changes in economic hierarchies of Polish large cities
| Explanatory variables | Expected sign | |
|---|---|---|
| – Location on the course of route TEN-T (including roads, railways, airports and seaports; one-zero variable; years 2004, 2013) | + | |
| – Distance to the EU core cities: Hamburg, Frankfurt, vienna, Berlin, Munich (measured by distance to the city with direct or connecting flights to the above cities) (in km) | - | |
| – Distance to the Polish-German border (in km) | - | |
| – Turn-out in the elections to European Parliament (in %; 2004, 2009) | + | |
| – Turn-out in the EU accession referendum (in %, 2003) | + | |
| – EU accession referendum – number of votes „in favor” as % of potential votes (in %, 2003) | + | |
| – Academic exchanges within ERASMUS (number of student placements per 10 thousand inhabitants, number of teacher placements per 10 thousand inhabitants; years: 2001, 2007, 2012 and one-zero variable: the Erasmus agreements signed by institutions of higher education between 2000-2007 and 2011-2012) | + | |
| – Expenditures of local budget within EU grants (sum for 2005-2013 per capita) (in PLN) | + | |
| – The availability of the EU funds in 1991-2006 period | + | |
| – Distance to the nearest city with more than 300 thousand inhabitants (in km and minutes, departure on weekdays at noon) | - | |
| – Distance to the nearest airport with regular passenger flights (in km and minutes, departure on weekdays at noon) | - | |
| – Local budget revenues from fee on exploitation of natural resources (minerals) over PLN 200,000 (one-zero variable; 2004, 2008, 2013) | - | |
| – % of population with higher education (2002, 2011) | + | |
| – The quality of higher education institutions (based on rankings from „Wprost” magazine: 1998, 2004, 2007; the average ranking of public and non-public institutions of higher education in the city, in points, maximum value = 100) | + | |
| – Turn-out in local elections (in %; 1990,1994,1998,2002,2006,2010) | + | |
| – The number of NGO’s per capita (1995, 1998, 2004, 2008, 2013) | + | |
| – Losing the status of regional capital (one-zero variable, 1998) | - | |
| – Change in gross value of fixed assets in enterprises (2004-2013, in %) | + | |
| – The number of firms from the list of 500 of the biggest companies in the country located within the city per 100 thousand inhabitants (based on the rankings from „Polityka” magazine; 1998, 2012) | + | |
| – The value of exports per capita (in PLN; 2005, 2007) |
Greatest gain and greatest loss of cities in the ranking 1992-2013
| Greatest gain 1992-2013 | Greatest loss 1992-2013 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kutno | +43 | Racibórz | -60 |
| 2 | Piła | +36 | Bytom | -51 |
| 3 | Bełchatów | +35 | Świętochłowice | -46 |
| 4 | Koszalin | +35 | Zabrze | -38 |
| 5 | Głogów | +34 | Siemianowice Śląskie | -35 |
| 6 | Puławy | +30 | Jastrzębie-Zdrój | -35 |
| 7 | Świdnica | +27 | Ruda Śląska | -32 |
| 8 | Pruszków | +27 | Wodzisław Śląski | -31 |
| 9 | Siedlce | +25 | Piekary Śląskie | -31 |
| 10 | Radomsko | +25 | Zawiercie | -27 |
Pearson correlation coefficients among changes of position in rankings
| Changes: | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1992-1998 | 1992-2004 | 1992-2008 | 1998-2004 | 1998-2008 | 1998-2013 | 2004-2008 | 2004-2013 | 2008-2013 | |
| Change 1992-2013 | +0.65 means significance at the 0.001 level | +0.90 means significance at the 0.001 level | +0.91 means significance at the 0.001 level | +0.73 means significance at the 0.001 level | +0.70 means significance at the 0.001 level | +0.85 means significance at the 0.001 level | 0.10 | +0.39 means significance at the 0.001 level | +0.31 means significance at the 0.001 level |