Accès libre

The influence of non-stationarity in extreme hydrological events on flood frequency estimation

À propos de cet article

Citez

Akaike, H., 1974. A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 19, 6, 716–723.10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705Search in Google Scholar

ARSO, 2010. Hydrological report on the floods in days, between 23rd and 27th of December 2010. MOP ARSO, Ljubljana, 1–14. (In Slovenian.)Search in Google Scholar

ARSO, 2012. Hydrological report on floods in days, between 4th and 6th of November 2012. MOP ARSO, Ljubljana, 1–15. (In Slovenian.)Search in Google Scholar

ARSO, 2015a. http://vode.arso.gov.si/hidarhiv/pov_arhiv_tab.php. Accessed: 9.9.2015.Search in Google Scholar

ARSO, 2015b. http://meteo.arso.gov.si/met/sl/app/webmet/. Accessed: 16.9.2015.Search in Google Scholar

Bates, B.C., Chandler, R.E., Charles, S.P., Campbell, E.P., 2010. Assessment of apparent nonstationarity in time series of annual inflow, daily precipitation, and atmospheric circulation indices: A case study from southwest Western Australia. Water Resources Resource, 46, 1–15.10.1029/2010WR009509Search in Google Scholar

Bezak, N., Brilly, M., Šraj, M., 2015a. Flood frequency analyses, statistical trends and seasonality analyses of discharge data: a case study of the Litija station on the Sava River. Journal of Flood Risk Management. doi: 10.1111/jfr3.12118.10.1111/jfr3.12118Search in Google Scholar

Bezak, N., Horvat, A., Šraj, M., 2015b. Analysis of flood events in Slovenian streams. Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 63, 134–144.10.1515/johh-2015-0014Search in Google Scholar

Blöschl, G., Montanari, A., 2010. Climate change impacts—throwing the dice? Hydrological Processes, 24, 374–381.10.1002/hyp.7574Search in Google Scholar

Blöschl, G. et al., 2015. Increasing river floods: fiction or reality? WIREs Water. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1079.10.1002/wat2.1079497490127547401Search in Google Scholar

Bormann, H., Pinter, N., Elfert, S., 2011. Hydrological signatures of flood trends on German rivers: flood frequencies, flood heights and specific stages. Journal of Hydrology, 404, 1–2, 50–66.10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.04.019Search in Google Scholar

Cheng, L., AghaKouchak, A., Gilleland, E., Katz, R.W., 2014. Non-stationary extreme value analysis in a changing climate. Climatic Change, 127, 353–369.10.1007/s10584-014-1254-5Search in Google Scholar

Coles, S., 2001. An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values. Springer, London.10.1007/978-1-4471-3675-0Search in Google Scholar

Cunderlik, J.M., Ouarda, T., 2009. Trends in the timing and magnitude of floods in Canada. Journal of Hydrology, 375, 3–4, 471–480.10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.050Search in Google Scholar

Delgado, J.M., Apel, H., Merz, B., 2010. Flood trends and variability in the Mekong river. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 3, 407–418.10.5194/hess-14-407-2010Search in Google Scholar

Delgado, J.M., Merz, B., Apel, H., 2014. Projecting flood hazard under climate change: an alternative approach to model chains. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 6, 1579–1589.10.5194/nhess-14-1579-2014Search in Google Scholar

Douglas, E.M., Vogel, R.M., Kroll, C.N., 2000. Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation. Journal of Hydrology, 240, 1–2, 90–105.10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00336-XSearch in Google Scholar

El Adlouni, S., Ouarda, T.B.M.J., Zhang, X., Roy, R., Bobee, B., 2007. Generalized maximum likelihood estimators for the non stationary generalized extreme value model. Water Resources Research, 43, W03410.10.1029/2005WR004545Search in Google Scholar

Finch, W.H., French, B.F., 2012. Parameter estimation with mixture item response theory models: A Monte Carlo comparison of maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods, 11, 1, 167–178.10.22237/jmasm/1335845580Search in Google Scholar

Frantar, P., Hrvatin, M., 2005. Discharge regimes in Slovenia from 1971 to 2000. Geografski vestnik, 77, 115–127. (In Slovenian.)Search in Google Scholar

Frantar, P., Nadbath, M., Ulaga, F., 2008. Water balance impact factors. In: Frantar, P. (Ed.): Water Balance of Slovenia 1971–2000. MOP ARSO, Ljubljana, pp. 15–27.10.1088/1755-1307/4/1/012020Search in Google Scholar

Gaál, L., Szolgay, J., Kohnová, S., Parajka, J., Merz, R., Viglione, A., Blöschl, G., 2012. Flood timescales: Understanding the interplay of climate and catchment processes through comparative hydrology. Water Resources Research, 48, W04511.10.1029/2011WR011509Search in Google Scholar

Gilleland, E., Katz, R.W., 2011. New software to analyze how extremes change over time. Eos, 92, 2, 13–14.10.1029/2011EO020001Search in Google Scholar

Gilroy, K.L., McCuen, R.H., 2012. A nonstationary flood frequency analysis method to adjust for future climate change and urbanization. Journal of Hydrology, 414–415, 40–48.10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.009Search in Google Scholar

Groisman, P.Y., Knight, R.W., Easterling, D.R., Karl, T.R., Hegerl, G.C., Razuvaev, V.N., 2005. Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record. Journal of Climatology, 18, 1326–1350.10.1175/JCLI3339.1Search in Google Scholar

Gül, G., Aşıkoğlu, Ö., Gül, A., Gülçem Yaşoğlu, F., Benzeden, E., 2014. Nonstationarity in flood time series. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19, 7, 1349–1360.10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000923Search in Google Scholar

Hall, J. et al., 2014. Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 7, 2735–2772.10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014Search in Google Scholar

Jones, P.D., New, M., Parker, D.E., Martin, S., Rigor, I.G., 1999. Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years. Reviews of Geophysics, 37, 2, 173–199.10.1029/1999RG900002Search in Google Scholar

Katz, R.W., Parlange, M.B., Naveau, P., 2002. Statistics of extremes in hydrology. Advances in Water Resources, 25, 1287–1304.10.1016/S0309-1708(02)00056-8Search in Google Scholar

Kendall, M.G., 1975. Multivariate Analysis. London, Griffin.Search in Google Scholar

Khaliq, M.N., Ouarda, T.B.M.J., Ondo, J.C., Gachon, P., Bobee, B., 2006. Frequency analysis of a sequence of dependent and/or non-stationary hydro-meteorological observations: a review. Journal of Hydrology, 329, 3–4, 534–552.10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.03.004Search in Google Scholar

Kjeldsen et al., 2014. Documentary evidence of past floods in Europe and their utility in flood frequency estimation. Journal of Hydrology, 517, 963–973.10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.06.038Search in Google Scholar

Kobold, M., Ulaga, F., Trcek, R., Lalic, B., Sušnik, M., Polajnar, J., Robic, M., 2005. High waters in August 2005. MOP ARSO, Ljubljana, pp. 1–21. (In Slovenian.)Search in Google Scholar

Kobold, M., Dolinar, M., Frantar, P., 2012. Changes of water regime due to the climate change and anthropogenic influences. In: Proc. The first conference on waters in Slovenia, 22.3.2012, Ljubljana, pp. 7–22. (In Slovenian.)Search in Google Scholar

Kuczera, G., 1996. Correlated rating curve error in flood frequency inference. Water Resources Research, 32, 7, 2119–2127.10.1029/96WR00804Search in Google Scholar

Kundzewicz, Z.W., Graczyk, D., Maurer, T., Pinskwar, I., Radziejewski, M., Svensson, C., Szwed, M., 2005. Trend detection in river flow series: 1. Annual maximum flow. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 50, 5, 797–810.10.1623/hysj.2005.50.5.797Search in Google Scholar

Labat, D., Godderis, Y., Probst, J.L., Guyot, J.L., 2004. Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming. Advances in Water Resources, 27, 6, 631–642.10.1016/j.advwatres.2004.02.020Search in Google Scholar

Ljung, G.M., Box, G.E.P., 1978. On a measure of a lack of fit in time series models. Biometrika, 65, 2, 297–303.10.1093/biomet/65.2.297Search in Google Scholar

Lopez, J., Frances, F., 2013. Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3189–3203.10.5194/hess-17-3189-2013Search in Google Scholar

McLeod, A.I., 2011. Kendall: Kendall rank correlation and Mann-Kendall trend test. R package version 2.2. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=Kendall.Search in Google Scholar

Mediero et al., 2015. Identification of coherent flood regions across Europe by using the longest streamflow records. Journal of Hydrology, 528, 341–360.10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.016Search in Google Scholar

Menih, M., Bezak, N., Šraj, M., 2015. The influence of the climate variability on the results of the flood frequency analyses: a case study of the Litija station on the Sava River. SZGG, Ljubljana, 23–34. (In Slovenian.)Search in Google Scholar

Merz, B., Vorogushyn, S., Uhlemann, S., Delgado, J., Hundecha, Y., 2012. HESS Opinions: “More efforts and scientific rigour are needed to attribute trends in flood time series”. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1379–1387.10.5194/hess-16-1379-2012Search in Google Scholar

Milly, P.C.D., Betancourt, J., Falkenmark, M., Hirsch, R.M., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Lettenmaier, D.P., Stouffer, R.J., 2008. Stationarity is dead: Whither water management. Science, 319, 573–574.10.1126/science.1151915Search in Google Scholar

Montanari, A., Koutsoyiannis, D., 2014. Modeling and mitigating natural hazards: Stationarity is immortal! Water Resources Research, 50, 12, 9748–9756.10.1002/2014WR016092Search in Google Scholar

Obeysekera, J., Salas, J.D., 2014. Quantifying the uncertanty of design floods under nonstationary conditions. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19, 1438–1446.10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000931Search in Google Scholar

Pachauri, R.K., Allen, M.R., Barros, V.R., Broome, J., Cramer, W., Christ, R., ... & van Vuuren, D., 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.Search in Google Scholar

Perdigão, R.A.P., Blöschl, G., 2014. Spatiotemporal flood sensitivity to annual precipitation: Evidence for landscape-climate coevolution, Water Resour. Res., 50, 5492–5509.10.1002/2014WR015365Search in Google Scholar

Polajnar, J., 2007. High waters in Slovenia in 2006. Ujma, 21, 42–44. (In Slovenian.)Search in Google Scholar

Prosdocimi, I., Kjeldsen, T.R., Svensson, C., 2014. Non-stationarity in annual and seasonal series of peak flow and precipitation in the UK. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1125–1144.10.5194/nhess-14-1125-2014Search in Google Scholar

Prosdocimi, I., Kjeldsen, T.R., Miller, J.D., 2015. Detection and attribution of urbanization effect on flood extremes using nonstationary flood-frequency models. Water Resources Research, 51, 4244–4262.10.1002/2015WR017065Search in Google Scholar

R Core Team, 2013. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. URL http://www.R-project.org/.Search in Google Scholar

Robson, A.J., Jones, T.K., Reed, D.W., Bayliss, A.C., 1998. A study of national trend and variation in UK floods. International Journal of Climatology, 18, 2, 165–182.10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199802)18:2<165::AID-JOC230>3.0.CO;2-#Search in Google Scholar

Rosbjerg, D., Blöschl, G., Burn, D.H., Castellarin, A., Croke, B., DiBaldassarre, G., Iacobellis, V., Kjeldsen, T.R., Kuczera, G., Merz, R., Montanari, A., Morris, D., Ouarda, T.B.M.J., Ren, L., Rogger, M., Salinas, J.L, Toth, E., Viglione, A., 2013. Prediction of floods in ungauged basins. Chapter 9. In: Blöschl, G., Sivapalan, M., Wagener, T., Viglione, A., Savenije, H. (Eds.): Runoff Prediction in Ungauged Basins - Synthesis across Processes, Places and Scales. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 135–162.10.1017/CBO9781139235761.012Search in Google Scholar

Salas, J.D., Obeysekera, J., 2014. Revisiting the concepts of return period and risk for nonstationary hydrologic extreme events. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19, 554–568.10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000820Search in Google Scholar

Singh, J., Singh, T., Vittal, H., Karmakar, S., 2013. Nonstationary frequency estimation of flood extremes. In: Proc. of Hydro 2013 International, 4–6.12.2013, IT Madras, India, pp. 3–16.Search in Google Scholar

Sivapalan, M., Blöschl, G., 2015. Time scale interactions and the coevolution of humans and water. Water Resour. Res., 51, 6988–7022.10.1002/2015WR017896Search in Google Scholar

Stahl, K., Hisdal, H., Hannaford, J., Tallaksen, L.M., van Lanen, H.A.J., Sauquet, E., Demuth, S., Fendekova, M., Jodar, J., 2010. Streamflow trends in Europe: evidence from a dataset of near-natural catchments. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 12, 2367–2382.10.5194/hess-14-2367-2010Search in Google Scholar

Strupczewski, W.G., Singh, V.P., Feluch, W., 2001. Nonstationary approach to at – site flood frequency modelling I. Maximum likelihood estimation. Journal of Hydrology, 248, 123–142.10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00397-3Search in Google Scholar

Viglione, A., Blöschl, G., 2009. On the role of storm duration in the mapping of rainfall to flood return periods. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13, 205–216.10.5194/hess-13-205-2009Search in Google Scholar

Viglione, A., Merz, R., Blöschl, G., 2009. On the role of the runoff coefficient in the mapping of rainfall to flood return periods. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13, 5, 577–593.10.5194/hess-13-577-2009Search in Google Scholar

Viglione, A., Merz, R., Salinas, J.L., Blöschl, G., 2013. Flood frequency hydrology: 3. A Bayesian analysis. Water Resources Research, 49, 675–692.10.1029/2011WR010782Search in Google Scholar

Villarini, G., Smith, J.A., Serinaldi, F., Bales, J., Bates, P.D., Krajewski, W.F., 2009. Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin. Advances in Water Resources, 32, 8, 1255–1266.10.1016/j.advwatres.2009.05.003Search in Google Scholar

Vogel, R.M., Yaindl, C., Walter, M., 2011. Nonstationarity: Flood magnification and recurrence reduction factors in the United States. Journal of American Water Resources Association, 47, 464–474.10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00541.xSearch in Google Scholar

Wilby, R.L., Quinn, N.W., 2013. Reconstructing multi-decadal variations in fluvial flood risk using atmospheric circulation patterns. Journal of Hydrology, 487, 109–121.10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.038Search in Google Scholar

Wobus, C., Lawson, M., Jones, R., Smith, J., Martinich, J., 2014. Estimating monetary damages from flooding in the United States under a changing climate. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 7, 217–229.10.1111/jfr3.12043Search in Google Scholar

Yue, S., Pilon, P., Cavadias, G., 2002. Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho test for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. Journal of Hydrology, 259, 254–271.10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00594-7Search in Google Scholar

Zhang, X.B., Harvey, K.D., Hogg, W.D., Yuzyk, T.R., 2001. Trends in Canadian streamflow. Water Resources Research, 37, 4, 987–998.10.1029/2000WR900357Search in Google Scholar

eISSN:
0042-790X
Langue:
Anglais
Périodicité:
4 fois par an
Sujets de la revue:
Engineering, Introductions and Overviews, other