<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p> Our goal is to get better understanding of different kind of dependencies behind the high-level capability areas. The models are suitable for investigating present state capabilities or future developments of capabilities in the context of technology forecasting. Three levels are necessary for a model describing effects of technologies on military capabilities. These levels are capability areas, systems and technologies. The contribution of this paper is to present one possible model for interdependencies between technologies. Modelling interdependencies between technologies is the last building block in constructing a quantitative model for technological forecasting including necessary levels of abstraction. This study supplements our previous research and as a result we present a model for the whole process of capability modelling. As in our earlier studies, capability is defined as the probability of a successful task or operation or proper functioning of a system. In order to obtain numerical data to demonstrate our model, we conducted a questionnaire to a group of defence technology researchers where interdependencies between seven representative technologies were inquired. Because of a small number of participants in questionnaires and general uncertainties concerning subjective evaluations, only rough conclusions can be made from the numerical results.</p></abstract>

Our goal is to get better understanding of different kind of dependencies behind the high-level capability areas. The models are suitable for investigating present state capabilities or future developments of capabilities in the context of technology forecasting. Three levels are necessary for a model describing effects of technologies on military capabilities. These levels are capability areas, systems and technologies. The contribution of this paper is to present one possible model for interdependencies between technologies. Modelling interdependencies between technologies is the last building block in constructing a quantitative model for technological forecasting including necessary levels of abstraction. This study supplements our previous research and as a result we present a model for the whole process of capability modelling. As in our earlier studies, capability is defined as the probability of a successful task or operation or proper functioning of a system. In order to obtain numerical data to demonstrate our model, we conducted a questionnaire to a group of defence technology researchers where interdependencies between seven representative technologies were inquired. Because of a small number of participants in questionnaires and general uncertainties concerning subjective evaluations, only rough conclusions can be made from the numerical results.

Dependency of Military Capabilities on Technological Development

M.Sc.(EE), Finnish Defence Research Agency,

Journal of Military Studies

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

{"article-title":"Dependency of Military Capabilities on Technological Development"}

Our goal is to get better understanding of different kind of dependencies behind the high-level capability areas. The models are suitable for investigating...

Dependency of Military Capabilities on Technological Development

Publié en ligne: 23 nov. 2016

Pages: 29 - 58

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jms-2016-0170

Mots clés
Modelling military capability, technological forecasting, interdependencies between technologies

© 2016

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Dependency of Military Capabilities on Technological Development

Publié en ligne: 23 nov. 2016

Pages: 29 - 58

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jms-2016-0170

Mots clésModelling military capability, technological forecasting, interdependencies between technologies

© 2016

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Mots clés
Modelling military capability, technological forecasting, interdependencies between technologies