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Fig. 1
Synthetic banking business tendency survey indicator PIKBANK in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1Source: Own calculations based on the data from the Department of Market Research and Services of the Poznań University of Economics and Business.
Fig. 2
Banking business tendency survey indicator BOSF - assessment of the financial situation (diagnostic balance) in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1Source: Own calculations based on the data from the Department of Market Research and Services of the Poznań University of Economics and Business.
Fig. 3
General business climate indicator in section K (WOK_K_1) in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1Source: Own calculations based on the data from the Central Statistical Office.
Fig. 4
Indicator of current financial situation of the enterprise in section K (OSF_K_1) in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1Source: Own calculations based on the data from the Central Statistical Office.
Fig. 5
Cyclical component of the synthetic banking business tendency survey indicator PIKBANK_c and general business climate indicator in section K WOK_K_1_c in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1Source: Own calculations based on the data from the Department of Market Research and Services of the Poznań University of Economics and Business and the Central Statistical Office.
Fig. 6
Cyclical component of the banking business tendency survey indicator BOSF_c and business tendency survey indicator of current financial situation of the enterprise in section K (OSF_K_1_c) in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1Source: Own calculations based on the data from the Department of Market Research and Services of the Poznań University of Economics and Business and the Central Statistical Office.
Turning points in the time series of cyclical component of the banking business tendency survey indicators in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1
variables
upper turning point
down turning point
upper turning point
down turning point
upper turning point
down turning point
upper turning point
BOSF_c
P:2-2007
T:4-2008
P:3-2010
T:1-2013
P:1-2014
T:2-2015
P:1-2017
PIKBANK_c
P:2-2007
T:4-2008
P:3-2010
T:1-2013
P:2-2014
T:2-2015
P:1-2017
Descriptive statistics for general business climate indicator WOK in section K and divisions 64 and 65 of the services sector in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1
Descriptive statistics
WOK_K_1
WOK_64_1
WOK_65_1
WOK_K_2
WOK_64_2
WOK_65_2
Mean average
29.6
28.4
34.2
29.4
28.0
33.4
Quartile 1
21.4
20.8
25.3
22.2
21.3
25.6
Median
27.7
27.9
32.5
26.3
26.4
32.0
Quartile 3
33.1
33.9
39.6
32.8
34.7
38.6
Standard deviation
12.4
15.7
11.1
12.7
16.4
11.7
Coefficient of variation
42.1%
55.4%
32.3%
43.2%
58.6%
35.1%
Minimum
4.8
-4.6
12.5
1.1
-18.1
6.0
Maximum
60.3
66.4
59.7
59.8
65.1
62.2
Descriptive statistics for indicator of current financial situation of the enterprise OSF in section K and divisions 64 and 65 of the services sector in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1
Descriptive statistics
OSF_K_1
OSF_64_1
OSF_65_1
OSF_K_2
OSF_64_2
OSF_65_2
Mean average
18.5
18.7
21.4
17.9
17.5
21.3
Quartile 1
7.8
8.3
12.3
7.2
6.9
10.1
Median
15.9
15.6
18.2
16.0
15.7
17.1
Quartile 3
25.0
25.4
28.3
24.9
24.6
29.4
Standard deviation
15.6
20.0
12.3
15.5
20.1
13.8
Coefficient of variation
84.1%
107.3%
57.6%
86.6%
114.6%
64.6%
Minimum
-9.5
-27.6
2.1
-9.4
-23.9
-0.5
Maximum
55.3
65.6
49.4
54.3
66.7
49.4
Descriptive statistics for banking business tendency survey indicators in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1
Descriptive statistics
BOSF - assessment of the financial situation (diagnostic balance)
PIKBANK
Mean average
31.1
31.5
Quartile 1
13.6
23.9
Median
35.4
32.2
Quartile 3
49.7
38.7
Standard deviation
25.2
11.0
Coefficient of variation
80.9%
34.7%
Minimum
-37.4
10.5
Maximum
74.5
54.8
Assessment of lead/lag of the banking business tendency survey indicators in relation to business tendency survey indicators of the enterprise in section K based on the turning points analysis in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1
variables
upper turning point
down turning point
upper turning point
down turning point
upper turning point
down turning point
upper turning point
BOSF_c
P:2-2007
T:4-2008
P:3-2010
T:1-2013
P:1-2014
T:2-2015
P:1-2017
OSF_K_1_c
-2
0
0
0
-1
0
-1
OSF_K_2_c
0
0
-1
OSF_64_1_c
-2
0
0
0
OSF_64_2_c
0
0
0
-1
OSF_65_1_c
1
-7
-4
OSF_65_2_c
-2
-7
-4
variables
PIKBANK_c
P:2-2007
T:4-2008
P:3-2010
T:1-2013
P:2-2014
T:2-2015
P:1-2017
WOK_K_1_c
-2
0
-1
-7
WOK_K_2_c
0
-1
0
-7
WOK_64_1_c
1
-1
-1
-7
WOK_64_2_c
1
-1
-1
-7
WOK_65_1_c
0
-2
-8
WOK_65_2_c
-2
Turning points in the time series of cyclical component of the business tendency survey indicators for section K and its divisions in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1
variables
down turning point
upper turning point
down turning point
upper turning point
down turning point
upper turning point
down turning point
upper turning point
WOK_K_1_c
T:4-2003
P:4-2007
T:4-2008
P:4-2010
T:4-2014
WOK_K_2_c
T:3-2003
P:2-2007
T:1-2009
P:3-2010
T:4-2014
WOK_64_1_c
T:1-2004
P:1-2007
T:1-2009
P:4-2010
T:4-2014
WOK_64_2_c
T:4-2003
P:1-2007
T:1-2009
P:4-2010
T:4-2014
WOK_65_1_c
T:4-2003
P:2-2007
T:3-2013
P:2-2016
WOK_65_2_c
T:3-2003
P:4-2007
OSF_K_1_c
P:4-2007
T:4-2008
P:3-2010
T:1-2013
P:2-2014
T:2-2015
P:2-2017
OSF_K_2_c
T:3-2003
P:2-2007
T:4-2008
P:4-2011
OSF_64_1_c
P:4-2007
T:4-2008
P:3-2010
T:2-2015
OSF_64_2_c
P:2-2007
T:4-2008
P:3-2010
T:3-2015
OSF_65_1_c
T:3-2003
P:1-2007
T:3-2010
P:3-2011
OSF_65_2_c
T:3-2003
P:4-2004
T:3-2010
P:3-2011
Assessment of lead/lag of the banking business tendency survey indicators in relation to business tendency survey indicators of the enterprise in section K based on the cross-correlation analysis in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1