Volumen 30 (2022): Edición 3 (September 2022)

The work presents an analysis of the housing construction market in Ukraine. An economic and mathematic model was built to determine that the growth of the volume of housing construction in Ukraine had a positive impact on its GDP, due of a close relation between the two values. It is important to identify factors influencing the volume of housing construction. The obtained results prove that the greatest impact is made by consumer income, deposit rates in foreign currency, and the amount of consumer loans for buying, building and reconstruction of real estate assets; the numbers of marriages, investments in housing construction and interest rates for mortgage credits in UAH also have a significant impact. The elasticity coefficients reveal a positive impact of such factors as an increase of consumer income, growth of investments in housing construction, reduction of interest rates for mortgage credits and deposit rates in foreign currency, reduction of the amount of consumer loans for buying, building and reconstruction of real estate assets, and reduction of the number of marriages. Further development of the housing construction market requires appropriate conditions for the development of the banking sector in Ukraine and the growth of investments in the studied industry.

Taxes, particularly income tax, may affect how long investors decide to hold on to an investment property. There exists a research gap regarding the implications of a distributed profit-based taxation system for the holding period of an investment asset. As a distributed profit-based taxation system allows investors to postpone income tax liability, it creates an advantage for investors operating under such a system compared to investors operating under other systems of income taxation.

In this paper we model optimal holding periods under different systems of income taxation using a specific type of discounted cash flow model. We show that, theoretically, under the distributed profit taxation system, an optimal holding period for an investment property for an individual investor is the longest (ceteris paribus). This is in concordance with the circumstance that the after-tax value of the property for the investor is highest under the distributed profit taxation system. The results suggest that investment and property development projects under distributed profit taxation are not to be treated in the same way as projects under other tax systems with respect to time. Limitations of the study are related to the deterministic setting of the model as well as some restrictive assumptions.

Since Poland’s accession to the European Union in 2004, a steady increase in transaction prices of agricultural property has been observed. Also in other countries, mainly in Eastern and Central Europe, there has been an ongoing increase in the prices of agricultural land. The situation on the agricultural land market is influenced not only by the market mechanisms, but also by the political decisions, including restrictions in the turnover of land properties. The purpose of the study is to analyze the agricultural land market in Poland and to determine the relationship of average land prices for housing, service and industrial purposes against the average prices of agricultural land in 2004-2019. In the course of the study, price changes on the discussed market were assessed, and forecasts and simulations concerning the prices of agricultural properties and land intended for selected investment purposes were prepared. It was established that the increase in agricultural property prices over the recent dozen or so years is inadequate to the increase in the average gross salary in Poland and the average income from work at individual farms. However, the increase in prices is almost parallel to the increase in average transaction prices of property intended for housing purposes.

The purpose of this study is to identify regularities in the price relations between primary and secondary housing markets. The primary market and the secondary market are two related but quite differentiated sub-segments of the residential market. They particularly differ in the qualitative features of their traded objects and, consequently, also in the prices recorded in their trading. Nevertheless, they remain under the influence of the same main factors of a macroeconomic nature. This gives rise to the research hypothesis that prices of flats quoted in the sub-segments of the residential market remain in specific relationships with one another.

In an attempt to verify this hypothesis, the paper presents the results of an analytical work on the search for regularities in the relationship between prices on primary and secondary housing markets in selected Polish cities. The regularities concern the dynamics and structure of price relation indices constructed for the research. They also include classification analyses. The findings of the research have revealed, inter alia, that in the majority of the cities under study, prices of flats in the primary markets are higher than prices in the secondary markets. However, situations in which the reverse happens periodically (sometimes occasionally) are not rare. The examined relations are not permanent and are subject to relatively large, irregular fluctuations over time. It is possible to distinguish groups of cities which are relatively similar in this respect, but these similarities are not strong.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate econometric models with sample and prior information. Prices of land property for residential development in Szczecin are modeled (the price level was determined for 2018). Modeling property prices only based on sample data generates numerous problems. Transaction databases from local real estate markets often contain a small number of observations. Properties are frequently similar, which results in low variability of property characteristics, and thus – low efficiency of parameter estimators. In such a situation, the impact of some features cannot be estimated from the sample data. As a solution to this problem, the paper proposes econometric models that consider prior information. This information can be, for example, in the form of property feature weights proposed by experts. The prior information will be expressed in the form of stochastic restrictions imposed on the model parameters. In the simulation experiment, the predictive power of mixed estimation models is compared with two kind of models: OLS models and model with only prior information. It turned out that mixed estimation results are superior with regard to formal criteria and predictive abilities.

The asset pricing theory introduced by Fama and French (2015) documents five systematic common risk factors for equity valuation, such as: (a) market beta, (b) firm size, (c) firm value, (d) profitability and (e) investment strategy. However, corporate finance literature does not provide us with a particularly robust check if the FF5 model is equally exposed to estimate equity returns in an emerging market. Hence, based on Fama and Macbeth (1973) as well as Fama and French (1993, 2015, 2020), this paper applies multivariate regression (time series & cross-sectional) analysis for the robust test of common risk factors and risk premia respectively in an emerging market context, and finally validates that all of the systematic risk factors are significant except firm profitability and investment strategy. We found that the distinguishing semi-strong level of market efficiency influences the explanatory power of the underlying risk exposure for stock return performance differently in an emerging market. The finding could be important in estimating equity fair pricing that is yet to be examined for an emerging market. Therefore, with the reconfirmedthree significant common risk factors, the market practitioners, policy makers, financial analysts, and, above all, investors can estimate equity value appropriately, and thereby take optimal financial and investment decisions.

State intervention in the housing market can take many different forms. In Poland, in 2018, a lex specialis regulation was introduced to the general principles of spatial policy in terms of special privileges for developers operating in the housing market. As the entity responsible for local spatial policy, the municipality has been deprived of its decision-making power by granting developers who build residential buildings the right to act against local planning rules. The article aims to determine the preparation of the largest Polish cities to negotiate with developers through the adoption of local urban standards, the scale of use of lex developer solutions in these cities, and the analysis of the level of non-compliance in privileged investments with local planning rules. The study used desk research methods (critical literature analysis, source materials - texts of legal acts and statistical data), case studies, and comparative analysis. The conducted research allows for answering the research question posed in work: the level of completion of lex specialis purposes indicated by the legislator.

The COVID-19 pandemic has created a lot of unexpected changes, but also provided a unique opportunity to study the rental behavior of students under specific conditions, as lockdowns and implemented restrictions have also reached the sphere of higher education. This article attempts to shed light on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on students’ rental behavior on the example of a university town. The main source of data were questionnaires, data from the Statistics Poland, public and private institutions involved in real estate market research, and professional media. As the survey was carried out directly among a group of student-tenants and was supplemented by a survey among landlords, it provided information on students’ behavior on the rental market. Students have proved to be extremely elastic tenants, though a clear difference in the behavior of first degree, second degree and unified masters students was observed.