<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p><italic>Most of the studies that assess the performance of various calibration techniques have to</italic><italic>deal with a certain amount of uncertainty in the calibration data. In this study we tested</italic><italic>HBV model calibration procedures in hypothetically ideal conditions under the assumption</italic><italic>of no errors in the measured data. This was achieved by creating an artificial time series</italic><italic>of the flows created by the HBV model using the parameters obtained from calibrating the</italic><italic>measured flows. The artificial flows were then used to replace the original flows in the</italic><italic>calibration data, which was then used for testing how calibration procedures can reproduce</italic><italic>known model parameters. The results showed that in performing one hundred independent</italic><italic>calibration runs of the HBV model, we did not manage to obtain parameters that were</italic><italic>almost identical to those used to create the artificial flow data without a certain degree of</italic><italic>uncertainty. Although the calibration procedure of the model works properly from</italic><italic>a practical point of view, it can be regarded as a demonstration of the equifinality principle,</italic><italic>since several parameter sets were obtained which led to equally acceptable or behavioural</italic><italic>representations of the observed flows. The study demonstrated that this concept for</italic><italic>assessing how uncertain hydrological predictions can be applied in the further development</italic><italic>of a model or the choice of calibration method using artificially generated data.</italic></p></abstract>

Most of the studies that assess the performance of various calibration techniques have todeal with a certain amount of uncertainty in the calibration data. In this study we testedHBV model calibration procedures in hypothetically ideal conditions under the assumptionof no errors in the measured data. This was achieved by creating an artificial time seriesof the flows created by the HBV model using the parameters obtained from calibrating themeasured flows. The artificial flows were then used to replace the original flows in thecalibration data, which was then used for testing how calibration procedures can reproduceknown model parameters. The results showed that in performing one hundred independentcalibration runs of the HBV model, we did not manage to obtain parameters that werealmost identical to those used to create the artificial flow data without a certain degree ofuncertainty. Although the calibration procedure of the model works properly froma practical point of view, it can be regarded as a demonstration of the equifinality principle,since several parameter sets were obtained which led to equally acceptable or behaviouralrepresentations of the observed flows. The study demonstrated that this concept forassessing how uncertain hydrological predictions can be applied in the further developmentof a model or the choice of calibration method using artificially generated data.

Assessment of The Uncertainties of a Conceptual Hydrologic Model By Using Artificially Generated Flows

Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Slovak University of Technology, Radlinského 11, 813 68 Bratislava, Slovak Republic

Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Faculty of Environmental and Territory Engineering, University of Bologna, Via Terraccini 28, Bologna, Italy

Slovak Journal of Civil Engineering

Most of the studies that assess the performance of various calibration techniques have todeal with a certain amount of uncertainty in the calibration data. In...

Assessment of The Uncertainties of a Conceptual Hydrologic Model By Using Artificially Generated Flows

Publicado en línea: 17 ene 2013

Páginas: 35 - 43

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/v10189-012-0020-9

This content is open access.