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Development dynamics of health and social infrastructure for the long-term care – The case of the Posavje region

David Bogataj
David Bogataj
, 
Marija Bogataj
Marija Bogataj
 y 
Marta Kavšek
Marta Kavšek
   | 20 oct 2021
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Article Category: Original scientific article
Publicado en línea: 20 oct 2021
Páginas: 269 - 277
Recibido: 24 feb 2021
Aceptado: 02 sept 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/sjph-2021-0036
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© 2021 National Institute of Public Health, Slovenia, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Figure 1

Composition of Slovenian municipalities in LAGs we studied.
Composition of Slovenian municipalities in LAGs we studied.

Figure 2a

Demographic projections for 2019–2070 of cohort 80+ in the Posavje region.
Demographic projections for 2019–2070 of cohort 80+ in the Posavje region.

Figure 2b

The ratio between the active population and the population 80+ in the Posavje region.
The ratio between the active population and the population 80+ in the Posavje region.

Staff/user norms in healthcare and the required number of staff per user per unit for OS, GH, and NH.

Staff Health care staff per facility
In OS per 30 users
 In GH per 24 users
 In DSO per 200 users
Cat. I:II:III= 39%:14%:47%
Nursing technician 1.98 1.59 19.74
Senior physio-therapist 0.18 0.15 1.32
Graduate of senior nurse 0.54 0.43 6.58
B.Sc. Work therapist 0.19 0.15 1.98
Nurse-caregiver 3.12 2.5 27.72
Server 0.57 0.45 0
Specialist doctor 0.02 0.01 0.1
Total 6.6 5.28 57.42

Projections of the structure of needs for providers in the Posavje region.

Year U adFH OS+GH DSO NH
2025 1964 0.18 0.42 0.39 0.02
2030 2201 0.17 0.44 0.35 0.05
2035 2466 0.17 0.43 0.33 0.08
2040 2764 0.16 0.43 0.34 0.07
2045 3099 0.15 0.43 0.35 0.06
2050 3457 0.15 0.44 0.36 0.06

The projection of LTC demand in five LAGs given today’s structure of housing and services based on the no-migration demographic projections.4

AG Year Cohorts
 Sum Patronage nurses employed Included in homecare Demand In NH2,5
<15 15-64 65-79 80+
LAS Posavje 2019 11.149 48.958 11.273 4.179 75.559 34 317 1.398
2050 9.210 34.888 14.019 10.066 68.184 551 515 2.960
Growth rate 2050/2019 -17 -29 24 141 -10 62 112
LAS Goričko 2020 2019 6.053 29.925 8.034 2.538 46.550 23 156 9353
2050 5.036 19.387 8.893 6.376 39.692 351 235 2.0203
Growth rate 2050/2019 -17 -35 11 151 -15 51 116
LAS Obsotelje in Kozjansko 2019 4.682 20.333 4.348 1.477 30.840 12 115 419
2050 3.873 14.651 5.907 4.151 28.582 221 208 1.026
Growth rate 2050/2019 -17 -28 36 181 -7 81 145
LAS Pri dobrih ljudeh 2020 2019 4.097 19.948 5.012 1.484 30.541 13 64 323
2050 3.411 13.115 5.937 4.144 26.607 211 105 771
Growth rate 2050/2019 -17 -34 18 179 -13 64 139
LAS Prlekija 2019 5.054 23.855 6.312 1.975 37.196 15 68 813
2050 4.187 15.984 7.034 5.059 32.264 231 104 1.787
Growth rate 2050/2019 -17 -33 11 156 -13 53 120

Expenditure of municipalities and users in 24 housing units of greenhouse facilities.

Variants Number of employees per shift a/b/c**** Yearly for 528 h/month at 16€/h in €/year
 User monthly 30% in €/month
Total Municipality 70%
A* 5/5/3 36,608 25,626 457.6
B** 3/2/1 14,080 9,856 176
ZN*** 1/1/1 0 0 0
Integrated care 2/1/0+1/1/1 7,040 4,928 88

Optimal construction dynamics of facilities in Posavje in terms of number of beds.

Year Homecare Nursing facilities
Without community care
 With community care
Cat.I Cat.II Cat.III Community OS+GH Nursing home DSO+NH
2020 322 286 100 1046 735 697
2025 348 323 113 1180 830 787
2030 377 365 128 1332 936 888
2035 407 412 144 1503 1057 1002
2040 440 465 136 1696 1193 1131
2045 476 525 184 1915 1346 1276
2050 515 592 207 2161 1519 1441

The construction dynamics of the assisted living units and the projection of staff needed in the Posavje region.

Year Homecare: Number of users (U), The health care staffs (HS) and primary + social care (P+SC) staff
 Number of users (U), The health care staffs (HS) and primary + social care (P+SC) staff in OS
 Max no. of flats in OS is 30
 Number of users (U), the health care staffs (HS) and primary + social care (P+SC) staff in GH
 Max no. of studios in GH is 24
U HC P+SC*** 0.54/U U HC P+SC*** 0.59/U No. of OS* U HC P+SC*** 0.54/U No. of GH**
2025 348 76.7 188 202 44.4 99 7 103 22.7 25.8 5
2030 377 82.9 204 236 51.9 115.6 8 121 26.6 30.3 5
2035 407 89.4 220 259 57 126.9 8 132 29 33 6
2040 440 96.9 238 292 64.2 143.1 9 149 32.8 37.3 7
2045 476 104.8 257 330 72.6 161.7 10 168 37 42 7
2050 515 113.3 278 372 81.8 182.3 12 190 41.8 47.5 8
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