Acceso abierto

Role of Internal Variability of Climate System in Increase of Air Temperature in Wrocław (Poland) in the Years 1951–2018

Andrzej A. Marsz
Andrzej A. Marsz
, 
Anna Styszyńska
Anna Styszyńska
, 
Krystyna Bryś
Krystyna Bryś
 y 
Tadeusz Bryś
Tadeusz Bryś
   | 30 sept 2021
Quaestiones Geographicae's Cover Image
Acerca de este artículo
Artículo anterior
Artículo siguiente
Cite
Publicado en línea: 30 sept 2021
Páginas: 109 - 124
Recibido: 21 jun 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2021-0027
Palabras clave
© 2021 Andrzej A. Marsz et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Fig. 1

The geographical position of Wrocław in Europe.
The geographical position of Wrocław in Europe.

Fig. 2

The course of the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) in the years 1791–2018 as a deviation from the long-term average. Continuous curve – adjustment of the polynomial to the power of 5 to the empirical courses. The year 1951 (vertical dotted line) is marked, the initial year of the period 1951–2018 analysed in detail. Horizontal dashed lines mark limits of the ±1 SD. SD – standard deviation.
The course of the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) in the years 1791–2018 as a deviation from the long-term average. Continuous curve – adjustment of the polynomial to the power of 5 to the empirical courses. The year 1951 (vertical dotted line) is marked, the initial year of the period 1951–2018 analysed in detail. Horizontal dashed lines mark limits of the ±1 SD. SD – standard deviation.

Fig. 3

The course of the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) in the years 1951–2018. Significantly different courses in the periods 1951–1988 and 1988–2018 can be seen. Marked trends and their values in both periods.
The course of the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) in the years 1951–2018. Significantly different courses in the periods 1951–1988 and 1988–2018 can be seen. Marked trends and their values in both periods.

Fig. 4

Variation ranges of the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) in both periods: 1951–1988 and 1988–2018. It appears noteworthy that in the second period, the lower limit of the second quartile is higher than the upper limit of the third quartile in the previous period, and the median in the second period is above the absolute maximum in the first period.
Variation ranges of the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) in both periods: 1951–1988 and 1988–2018. It appears noteworthy that in the second period, the lower limit of the second quartile is higher than the upper limit of the third quartile in the previous period, and the median in the second period is above the absolute maximum in the first period.

Fig. 5

The courses of the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) and the average annual values of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.
The courses of the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) and the average annual values of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.

Fig. 6

The course of annual sunshine duration in Wroclaw ShWr. The vertical dashed line (1988) marks the moment of transition of significantly different courses of ShWr.
The course of annual sunshine duration in Wroclaw ShWr. The vertical dashed line (1988) marks the moment of transition of significantly different courses of ShWr.

Fig. 7

The course of annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) and annual air temperature estimated based on long-day months of sunshine duration in Wroclaw (ShWrApr–Aug). The relationship between TWr and ShWrApr–Aug and its statistical characteristics are in the upper frame of the figure.
The course of annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) and annual air temperature estimated based on long-day months of sunshine duration in Wroclaw (ShWrApr–Aug). The relationship between TWr and ShWrApr–Aug and its statistical characteristics are in the upper frame of the figure.

Fig. 8

The predicted (from Eq. (2)) values of annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) in relation to the observed values. The dotted line indicates 99% confidence interval (1951–2018).
The predicted (from Eq. (2)) values of annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) in relation to the observed values. The dotted line indicates 99% confidence interval (1951–2018).

Fig. 9

The courses of the observed and predicted (from Eq. (2)) values of annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) in 1951–2018.
The courses of the observed and predicted (from Eq. (2)) values of annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) in 1951–2018.

Fig. 10

The course of the anomaly of the annual frequency of W, E and C macro-types of the middle-tropospheric circulation according to the classification by Wangengejm-Girs. The anomalies are calculated with reference to averages from the period 1951–2015. The vertical dashed line marks the moment of transition of circulation epoch E to circulation epoch W.
The course of the anomaly of the annual frequency of W, E and C macro-types of the middle-tropospheric circulation according to the classification by Wangengejm-Girs. The anomalies are calculated with reference to averages from the period 1951–2015. The vertical dashed line marks the moment of transition of circulation epoch E to circulation epoch W.

Values of correlation coefficients (r) and their statistical significance (p) between the annual frequency of W, E and C macro-types of the middle-tropospheric circulation and annual air temperature (TWr), annual sunshine duration (ShWr) and sunshine duration of the long-day months. (ShWrApr–Aug) and annual precipitation (PWr) in Wrocław (1951–2018). Markings as in Table 1.

Macro-types TWr ShWr ShWrApr–Aug PWr
W rp 0.4700.000 0.6200.000 0.6300.000 −0.3100.010
E rp −0.3000.014 −0.6000.000 −0.5900.000 0.3300.005
C rp −0.2400.047 0.0900.488 0.0400.729 −0.1000.431

Values of correlation coefficients (r) and their statistical significance (p) between (DJFM) winter NAO Hurrell index and monthly and annual air temperature in Wrocław (1951–2018).

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year
r 0.570 0.460 0.610 0.190 0.190 0.020 0.210 0.320 0.230 0.140 −0.160 0.240 0.580
p 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.114 0.125 0.895 0.080 0.008 0.058 0.258 0.198 0.052 0.000

Values of correlation coefficients (r) between monthly and annual sunshine, and monthly and annual air temperature in Wrocław (1951–2018) along with their statistical significance (p).

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Jan
r 0.070 −0.110 0.270 0.640 0.620 0.660 0.810 0.740 0.610 0.140 0.020 0.140 0.610
p 0.583 0.381 0.025 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.248 0.847 0.239 0.000

Values of correlation coefficients (r) between monthly and annual cloudiness in Wrocław and air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) and their statistical significance (p). Analysis period: 1951–2018.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Jan
r 0.100 0.210 −0.180 −0.340 −0.380 −0.330 −0.520 −0.24 −0.450 0.010 0.090 0.130 0.120
p 0.401 0.092 0.152 −0.004 0.001 0.006 0.000 0.053 0.000 0.929 0.477 0.280 0.344
eISSN:
2081-6383
Idioma:
Inglés
Calendario de la edición:
4 veces al año
Temas de la revista:
Geosciences, Geography
RSS Feed de revista