Using the Health Belief Model to Predict Vaccination Intention in Unvaccinated Adults in Latvia During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Vaccination is a global health development success story that saves millions of lives every year and reduces the risk of getting various infectious diseases, including COVID-19. At the end of 2021, a rapid increase in the size of the population infected with COVID-19 and a low vaccination coverage were observed in Latvia (Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 2021). Also, despite the available vaccines, by the beginning of May 2022, only 60.6% of the population of Latvia had completed the full course of vaccination against COVID-19. According to the Ministry of Health, the vaccination process is characterised by variability and flexibility, and in general, vacci-nation rates have declined in recent years. Therefore, the aim of the study was to investigate the vaccination predicting factors of unvaccinated adults in Latvia using the Health Belief Model (HBM) during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study sample consisted of 539 respondents aged 18 to 75 years (M = 45.35, SD = 15.70), who were not vaccinated against COVID-19 and who had to make a decision to vaccinate or not, and who were part of a representative sample of Latvian residents (n = 1017). The data was collected in September and were analysed using Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient and multivariate linear regression analysis. A statistically significant moderate strong positive correlation was shown between vaccination intention and all six vaccination motives as perceived benefits (r = 0.40–0.44, p < 0.01); statistically significant but weak positive correlation between vaccination intention and risk appraisal as perceived threat (r = 0.20, p < 0.01) and COVID-19 experience as cues to action (r = 0.20, p < 0.01); and statistically significant negative but weak correlation for vaccination intention and fear of vaccination as perceived barriers (r = –0.21, p < 0.01). The results revealed a statistically significant positive association of vaccination intention and the components of HBM: perceived threats, perceived benefits and cues to action, as well as a statistically significant negative association with perceived barriers. The results revealed several factors that predict vaccination intention, explaining 32% of the variation in vaccination intention: education level, perceived threats, perceived benefits, perceived barriers, and cues to action. Higher levels of education, higher perceived threat of contracting COVID-19, many different social motives for vaccination (e.g., to be able travel), confidence that the vaccine will not cause significant side effects and long-term consequences, and experience with COVID-19 are factors that predicts an individual’s intention to vaccinate against COVID-19.